S T R A T E G I
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
REPUBLIC OF DAGESTAN FOR THE PERIOD TO 2030 YEARS
MAHACHACKALA - 2021
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LIST OF EXECUTORS
Full name, basic information
Work accomplished
Signatures
Fadik Kurbanovich Mugulov is the Executive Director of Interregional Center for Ex-Pertiza and Evaluation "Golden Pro-portion", a member of the Working Group on the Development of Strategy-2030 of Dagestan.
Structure of the Strategy. General provisions. Sections: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Appendices: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Title-page design. Overall editing of the Strategy.
Mair Eminbekovich Pashayev is the head of the project and resource development office of the territory, a member of the Working Group on the Development of Strategy-2030 of the Dagestan Republic.
Structure of the Strategy. Sections: 1.4, 2, 3, 4. Annexes: 7. Coordination of the project with the Government of RD and municipalities. General edition of the Strategy.
Reviewers
____________________ (signature, date)
____________________ (signature, date)
_____________________ (signature, date)
_____________________ (signature, date)
_____________________ (signature, date)
_____________________ (signature, date)
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GENERAL PROVISIONS
CONTENTS
I. MAIN RESULTS OF STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL-ECO-NOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF DAGESTAN
1.1. Brief description of the Republic of Dagestan 1.1.1. Economic and geographical characteristics. 1.1.2. Administrative-territorial division and historical and cultural features of the region.
1.2. Social and economic development of the Republic of Dagestan 2010-2020Gov 1.2.1. Macroeconomic dynamics and separate indicators of the efficiency of functioning of the region's economy. 1.2.2. Human Potential and Social Development. Integral assessment of the quality of life of the population. 1.2.3. Development of basic sectors of economy. 1.2.4. Spatial development and preferential territories. 1.2.5. State of the environment. 1.2.6. A brief assessment of the effectiveness of the implementation of the main federal and regional strategic documents and state programs in the republic. 1.2.7. Features of the modern stage of socio-economic development of the republic - stage, type, technological basis. 1.2.8. Stage of the life cycle of the Republic of Dagestan.
1.3. The place of the Republic of Dagestan in the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and the North Caucasus Federal District
1.4. Key factors and opportunities for the development of the Republic of Dagestan 1.4.1. Domestic potential of socio-economic development. 1.4.2. Major imbalances and imbalances in development. 1.4.3. Utilization of existing and creation of new advantages. 1.4.4. Opportunities for Accelerating Economic Growth.
II. STRATEGIC TREATMENT
2.1. Mission of the Republic of Dagestan 2.2. Scenarios of Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Dagestan 2021-2030Gov 2.3. Strategic priorities, goals and objectives of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan 2.3.1. Goal-setting system Strategy. 2.3.2. Breakthrough projects and key tasks. 2.4. Stages of implementation of the Strategy and expected key results of achieving strategic goals
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III. STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS OF INTEGRATED SOCIAL-ECONO-MIC DEVELOPMENT: GOALS, OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES
3.1. Human development and social protection systems 3.1.1. Improving demographic processes and population growth. 3.1.2. Creation of a modern health system. 3.1.3. Improving the quality and accessibility of education, development of regional science. 3.1.4. Employment generation, income generation and poverty reduction. 3.1.5. Social protection of population. 3.1.6. Culture, youth policy and education of the younger generation. 3.1.7. Sports and popularization of physical culture. 3.1.8. Public security and the rule of law.
3.2. Modern infrastructure for life and activity 3.2.1. Complex development of settlements and improvement of living conditions of citizens. 3.2.2. Ensuring the regulatory status and guarantee mode of operation of the infrastructure. 3.2.3. Effective TCO management system and use of secondary resources.
3.3. Structural changes, modernization of industries and economic complexes 3.3.1. Prospective economic specialization of the Republic of Dagestan. 3.3.2. Modernization and development of industries. 3.3.3. Development of investment complex. 3.3.4. Modern tourism industry. 3.3.5. Ahead of Small and Medium Business Development. 3.3,.6. Development of interregional and foreign economic relations.
3.4. Balanced spatial development and sustainable ecology 3.4.1. Development of priority geostrategic territory of the Russian Federation. 3.4.2. Promising centers of economic growth. 3.4.3. Development of Makhachkala agglomeration. 3.4.4. Complex development of the historical settlement of the Russian Federation of Derbent. 3.4.5. Sustainable Ecology and Conservation of Biosystems.
3.5. Scientific and technological progress and the digital economy 3.5.1. Improving the level and effectiveness of science development. 3.5.2. Formation of the scientific and technological base of the "new economy". 3.5.3. Integration into the global information environment. 3.5.4. Digital Development Platforms.
3.6. Social capital and civil society development 3.6.1. Development of public institutions and civil society. 3.6.2. National and interfaith policies. 3.6.3. Patriotic education of citizens and preservation of identity.
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IV. ORGANIZATIONAL-ECONOMIC MECHANISM, RESOURCE SURVEY AND MANAGEMENT MODEL OF STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION.
4.1. Institutional changes 4.1.1. System of program and planning documents on development management of the Republic of Dagestan. 4.1.2. Improving the efficiency of public and municipal administration. 4.1.3. Improvement of personnel policy. 4.1.4. Improving the effectiveness of political and legal institutions. 4.1.5. Ensuring the development of a competitive market environment in the economy. 4.1.6. Formation of institutional forms of implementation of the Strategy.
4.2. Investment and financial and budgetary model of Strategy 4.2.1. Investment strategy. 4.2.2. Development of investment complex. 4.2.3. Development of budget and financial sphere.
4.3. Improving the efficiency of management of state and municipal property 4.3.1. Improving the management of land and other natural resources 4.3.2. Improving the efficiency of management of state and municipal property
4.4. Strategy Management System
4.5. Proposals for the composition of strategic projects
V. INDICATORS AND EXPECTED RESULTS OF STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION.
MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS.
ANNEXES. 1. Regulatory framework. 2. Tables. 3. SWOT- and PEST - analysis of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan for the period up to 2030 years. 4. Industries (clusters) of perspective specialization of economy of the Republic of Dagestan. 5. the Forecast Balance of Electricity of the Republic of Dagestan 2021- 2026 Gov. 6. Objects of transport infrastructure development. 7. State unitary enterprises, joint-stock companies with 100 % shares of the Republic of Dagestan in the authorized capital or participation of the Republic of Dagestan in the authorized capital 8. Register of investment projects of the Republic of Dagestan. 9. List of state programs of the Republic of Dagestan for the implementation of the Strategy.
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GENERAL PROVISIONS
The Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Republic of Dagestan through 2030 (hereinafter the Strategy or Strategy-2030) is a strategic planning document of the Republic of Dagestan, developed as part of goal-setting in accordance with Article 75 of the republic’s Constitution, the decision of the Head of the Republic of Dagestan, S. A. Melikov, and Order No. 160-р of the Government of the Republic of Dagestan dated 4 May 2021. The Strategy was prepared in the year of the 100th anniversary of the formation of the Dagestan Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. It sets out a future vision for the republic whose realisation will strengthen Dagestan’s standing as a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, ensure accelerated development of its economy and social sphere, and substantially improve citizens’ quality of life. The Strategy forms part of the overall vertically integrated system of documents for strategic planning and forecasting the region’s long-term socioeconomic development. The need for it arises from: the republic’s difficult situation following prolonged stagnation and the scale of accumulated unresolved socioeconomic problems; preparation of socioeconomic development strategies for the Russian Federation through 2030 and the North Caucasus Federal District through 2035; changes in the conditions and progress of implementing the socioeconomic development strategies of Dagestan through 2025 and the North Caucasus Federal District through 2025; and the current results of implementing regional and federal projects and programmes for medium- and long-term development within the republic. The Strategy defines Dagestan’s socioeconomic development priorities, goals, objectives and directions in alignment with those of the Russian Federation. It provides a long-term basis for cooperation among Dagestan’s public authorities, population, civic organisations and businesses and for regional management decisions, ensuring long-term coordination between the republic’s public authorities and local government bodies. The legal and regulatory basis for its development comprises: the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Constitution of the Republic of Dagestan; Federal Law No. 172-ФЗ of 28 June 2014, “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”, and Republic of Dagestan Law No. 72 of 05 December 2016, “On Strategic Planning in the Republic of Dagestan”; the Methodological Recommendations for Developing and Adjusting a Socioeconomic Development Strategy for a Constituent Entity of the Russian Federation and an Action Plan for Its Implementation, approved by Order No. 132 of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation dated 23 March 2017, “On Approval of the Methodological Recommendations for Developing and Adjusting a Socioeconomic Development Strategy for a Constituent Entity of the Russian Federation and an Action Plan for Its Implementation”; and an extensive set of other federal and regional legislative and regulatory documents in this field, the principal ones being listed in Appendix 1 to the Strategy. The information base used in preparing the Strategy included statistical data from the Federal State Statistics Service and its territorial office for the Republic of Dagestan;
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departmental information on the development of the republic’s economic sectors; development plans of leading enterprises; best practices in public administration in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation; expert assessments and national rankings; and academic and practical work on the strategic management of regional development in the Russian Federation. Preparation of the document included a strategic study of Dagestan’s socioeconomic position, an analysis of its development results mainly for 2010–2020, and an assessment of changes in the attractiveness and competitiveness of the region and individual municipalities. Long-term strategic development goals and objectives were formulated, with targets for their achievement; priority infrastructure and sectoral complexes and new economic sectors were identified, along with economic and management models for implementing and resourcing the Strategy, lists of the republic’s state programmes, and major investment projects. The conceptual provisions and content of individual sections were refined through close dialogue with Dagestan’s ministries and departments, and progress was reported periodically at various meetings of the republic’s executive authorities (ОИВ РД). The results were presented to the public and discussed with representatives of civic associations and social groups, universities, enterprises and other regional organisations. The Strategy was developed using economic and mathematical analysis and forecasting, PEST and SWOT analyses, scenario forecasting, Foresight and expert assessment methods, and modern information technologies. The Strategy is the foundational document for Dagestan’s long-term development, aimed at ensuring a decent quality of life, sustained growth in economic potential, more efficient economic reproduction processes and greater competitiveness of the republic’s economy. It will be implemented in accordance with the Action Plan for Implementing the Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of the Republic of Dagestan through 2030. Within the strategic planning system, it is complemented by the main implementation instruments: Dagestan’s state programmes, containing specific, resourced measures to achieve the Strategy’s goals, and the republic’s Territorial Planning Scheme. The Strategy proceeds from Dagestan’s status as a priority geostrategic territory and is linked to the main state support instruments for territorial socioeconomic development: the Russian Federation’s national projects, the state programme “Development of the North Caucasus Federal District”, and measures in the draft Unified Plan for Achieving the Russian Federation’s National Development Goals through 2024 and for the planning period through 2030. It takes account of the current state, development trends and prospects of the economy, infrastructure, social sphere and human capital in Dagestan and the Russian Federation, as well as those of the global economy. In determining priority directions, major projects of regional and interregional significance were considered, together with systemic tasks for changing the region’s institutional environment. At the same time, developing Dagestan’s Strategy-2030 was significantly complicated by the absence of socioeconomic development strategies for the Russian Federation and the North Caucasus Federal District through 2030.
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The strategy focuses on the transition of the Republic of Dagestan to a new stage of development, based on the principles of advanced development and complex solution of the challenges facing the republic, including sectoral, spatial and environmental, as well as on creating conditions for reformatting the life and activities of people based on new information and digital technologies. The strategy is based on the basic principle: the development of the Republic of Dagestan should be aimed at ensuring a decent standard of living and harmonious human development. This implies the preservation and enhancement of human potential: qualitative changes in demographic processes in the republic, in the fields of education, medicine, culture, information, environment and ecology, etc. At the same time, it is necessary to ensure a balanced spatial development and advanced development of the basic sectors of the region’s economy based on innovation, advanced modern technologies and equipment, as well as using the natural geographical and domestic advantages of the region and advantages in traditional specialization sectors that have not yet exhausted their potential. The Republic of Dagestan has favorable conditions for the development of the agro-industrial complex, the extractive and processing sectors of industry, electricity, tourism, the sanatorium and resort sector, as well as transport and logistics and transit functions of the region, further capacity building of education, health care, trade and paid services. In accordance with the goals set in the Strategy: - the assessment of the state and the most important prerequisites for the development of the economy of Dagestan are determined; - the socio-economic mission of the republic for the long-term perspective is formulated; - the main goal and goals of the first and subsequent levels, priority directions of the long-term development of the Republic of Dagestan are determined and justified, taking into account the general priorities of the development of the Russian Federation and the North Caucasus Federal District; - the most important external and internal factors are described 2030 The objectives, priorities, target indicators, mechanisms for the development of the main sectors of the economy, the social sphere, science and technology are defined; proposals are made to improve the territorial structure of the economy, taking into account the trends in the socio-economic development of cities and districts, as well as the emergence of new forms of spatial organization of the economy, reflecting the qualitative content and quantitative parameters of interregional ties in the North Caucasus and beyond in the long term; the main directions of reforming the system of state administration are defined. The strategy is designed to: - conduct effective economic policy and develop a mutually agreed upon at the regional and federal levels of power a set of measures aimed at sustainable and advanced socio-economic development of the republic; - ensure joint actions and search for partnership items of state bodies, municipalities, commercial and non-profit organizations, including public, citizens and their associations.
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The implementation of the main provisions of the Strategy will allow: - to reverse negative trends in the economy and social sphere of the Republic of Dagestan; - to significantly increase the potential of the economic base of the republic, to ensure its competitiveness for the long term and to achieve a stable trajectory of advanced growth and development; - to increase the efficiency of state and municipal management of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan, the potential and opportunities of business and civil society. All this will be the key to the growth of the quality of life and well-being of the population of the republic and fully corresponds to the achievement of national goals envisaged by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 21.07.2020 No. 474 "On the national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030". The draft Strategy for Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Dagestan for the period up to 2030 was developed in accordance with the instructions and proposals of the Head of the Dagestan Res-public, in close cooperation with the Government of the Republic of Dagestan, relevant committees of the People's Assembly of the Republic of Dagestan, ministries, departments and municipalities of the republic.
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I. KEY RESULTS OF STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF DAGESTAN
1.1. Brief description of the Republic of Dagestan
1.1.1. Economic and geographical characteristics
The Republic of Dagestan is the southernmost region of the Russian Federation, is one of the oldest and richest historical regions of the country, occupies a favorable geostrategic position and has a direct access to international sea routes, through its territory there are railway, road, air, sea and pipeline routes of federal and international importance. The Republic of Dagestan borders by land and sea with five states - Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran. The area from south to north is about 400 km, from west to east 200 km.
The total area of the Republic of Dagestan 1 January 2020 He is 50,3 thousand square kilometres. In the structure of the lands of the republic, agricultural land is 86,4% (4344,5 thousands of hectares), land settlements 3,2% (160,5 thousands of hectares), industrial land and other special purpose 0,9% (43,3 thousands of hectares), lands of specially protected natural areas 0,6% (28,7 thousand hectares), forest fund land 8,4% (421,6 thousands of hectares), water fund lands 0,48% (26,6 Thousands of hectares of land stock 0,02% (1,8 Thousands of hectares), outside the administrative boundaries of the republic are used 158,6 thousand ha. Dagestan, a small land republic, but with a variety of soil and vegetation cover.
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According to the variety of plant and climatic zones, Dagestan has no equal in Russia: from subtropical forest at the mouth of the Samur River, deserts and semi-deserts in the north of the republic, to high-mountain pastures and glaciers. The rich and diverse animal world of the republic: 89 Mammalian Species, 300 species of birds and 92 species of fish, including sturgeons. In general, the climate of Dagestan is characterized as dry and semi-dry, moderately continental. The climate in the north and in the central part of Dagestan is moderately continental and arid, in the south along the Caspian Sea and on the Caspian lowland subtropical semi-dry. In the mountains above 3 thousand m absolute maximum temperatures are 21-23°C, In the north, the air temperature can be higher 40°C. Precipitation at the lowlands does not exceed 400 And in the mountains at the height 3 Thousands of miles more 1 thousand mm. Dagestan has an extensive hydrographic network, represented by rivers, canals, lakes, swamps, the Caspian Sea, glaciers. There is total in the Republic 4374 Rivers, total length 25973 Kilomile. 92% The river is in the mountains, and 8% It is found in the mountains and plains. The largest rivers are the Terek, Sulak and Samur with tributaries. Long-term annual flow of the rivers of Dagestan reaches 16,2 Kilomile3/year. With an average multi-year water 16,2 Kilomile3/year, for one resident of Dagestan 7795 m3 the highest availability of fresh water in Russia, but the main disadvantage is that it is not equally distributed across the territory. The mountain and foothill areas are most provided with water. Rivers are widely used in the national economy of the republic for hydropower construction, reclamation and water supply. Hydropower potential of the republic is 55,2 billion KW/h or almost 40% potential of the North Caucasus rivers. Economically highly efficient part of them is concentrated mainly in the basins of four major rivers of Dagestan - Sulak, Samur, Avar and Andi Koisu. The Sulak River accounts for half of all hydropower here are located Chiryurtovskaya and Chirkeiskaya HPP. Dagestan resources, operating hydroelectric power plants (17 The HSE is only about 10% Hydropower of the Republic. The largest reservoirs of Dagestan - Chirkei, Irganay, Miatlin, Chiryurtov and Gergebil, are located in the foothills. The largest water reservoir in the whole North Caucasus in the mountains is the Chirkei reservoir with a full volume 2,8 billion m3 and useful1,3 billion m3. The area of his mirror 42 Kilomile2. The natural river network is thickened by an artificial one, represented by a number of irrigation channels. In Dagestan there are about 100 Lakes, total area of more 150 Kilomile2. Lakes of the Primorsky lowland (Akkol, Big and Small Turali, Aji) of lagoon-sea origin, salty, at the bottom contain therapeutic mud, which is a potential for mud treatment. Large lakes of the low part of Dagestan are Temirgo lakes, key ornithological territories, according to a number of characteristics corresponding to the Ramsar Convention. In Mountainous Dagestan, the largest, including in the entire North Caucasus, is the Great Trout Lake. Length of the lake 3,8 km, width 1,1 km, depth 320-436 m. The nature around all mountain and high-mountainous lakes is unusually picturesque and recreation centers can be created on some lakes of High-mountainous and Mountainous Dagestan. The most important hydrological element of Dagestan is the Caspian Sea, located at the junction of Europe and Asia. The level of the Caspian Sea-lake lies far below the level of the World Ocean. In the beginning 2000 The year he had a mark about -27 Abs. m. Average and maximum depth 208 and 1025 M respectively. The length of the sea shoreline varies from 6400 to 6800 km: within the boundaries of Dagestan is located near 8,5% their total length. The Caspian Sea is the most important fishing basin of the country.
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The biological resources of the Caspian Sea include world stocks of rare and valuable sturgeon species. It contains 70% of the world’s sturgeon stocks and more than 60% of the larger non-sturgeon commercial fish stocks. The Caspian coastline within Dagestan is more than 540 km long. The republic is rich in mineral resources: oil, gas, peat, lignite and oil shale, as well as solid mineral raw materials (ferrous and non-ferrous metal ores, non-metallic mineral raw materials, etc.). Potential oil and gas reserves amount to 509.3 million tonnes of oil including gas condensate, of which 169.3 million tonnes are onshore; and 877.2 billion cubic metres of natural gas, of which 337.2 billion cubic metres are onshore. The Caspian shelf offers an important reserve for increasing hydrocarbon reserves and production. The republic has substantial reserves of building materials: limestone, marl, gravel, sand and clay. Southern Dagestan has a copper deposit whose exploitable reserves are estimated at 60,953.6 thousand tonnes of copper-pyrite ores and 3,428.3 thousand tonnes of zinc-pyrite ores. Dagestan has 255 identified springs and 15 deposits of medicinal mineral waters: carbonated, sulphide, bromide, iodine-bromine, siliceous, iron-bearing and low-radon waters.
1.1.2. Administrative-territorial division and historical-
cultural characteristics of the region.
Daghestan 2021 the Year of the Prophet 100 years of its modern state, which originates in the 1920 The year when 13 November At the first congress of the peoples of Dagestan, the autonomy of Dagestan was proclaimed. Then 20 January 1921 A decree of the VTsIK was announced on the formation of the Dagestan Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic. Later 70 years, in 1991 It was renamed first to the Dagestan SSR (17 September), the Republic of Dagestan (17 December). In the territory of the republic are formed 41 Municipal area and 10 urban districts. The Republic of Dagestan is the largest by population (3,13 Millions of people) and second largest (50,3 thousands of square kilometers) in the North Caucasus. The average population density is 62,2 per square kilometre (5- the place in the NCFD and 13- the place in the Russian Federation). However, the area is very unevenly populated. The largest part of the population is concentrated in the flat part of Dagestan, the north and highlands are extremely sparsely populated. The majority of the population of the republic are rural residents (about 54%). Representatives of the Republic live above 30 Indigenous peoples, more 110 ethnic groups with independent languages and dialects, culture and rich traditions. The peoples of Dagestan speak languages belonging to three large language families: Iberian-Caucasian (North Caucasian), Altaic and Indo-European. According to the Constitution of the Republic of Dagestan, the state languages are Russian and the languages of all peoples inhabiting the republic. Among them, the most common are Avar, Agul, Azerbaijani, Dargin, Kumyk, Lak, Lezgin, Nogai, Rutul, Tabasaran, Tat, Tsakhur, Chechen languages. The most numerous nationalities according to the All-Russian Population Census 2010 Years are: Avars (29,4%), Dargins (17%), Kumyks (14,9%), Lezgins (13,3%), Lacca (5,6%), Azerbaijanis (4,5%), Tabasarans (4,1%), Russian (3,6%), Chechens (3,2%), Nogais (1,4%), Rutulians (1%), Agula (1%), Tsakhura (0,3%). Their share is 98,8% population, the rest of the population is from several hundred to several people.
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Dagestan is a cultural and ethnographic phenomenon in which a historically formed diversity of peoples’ cultures and traditions combines with a rich history as one of the ancient spiritual centres cultivating and spreading the world’s Abrahamic religions: Islam, Christianity and Judaism. Since ancient times, Dagestan has been called both the Land of Mountains and a “mountain of languages”. Its complex history is undoubtedly a factor in its ethnic diversity. Geographically part of Western Asia, it became, in remote antiquity, a meeting ground for different cultures: the agricultural civilisation of Mesopotamia and the nomadic Great Steppe, the Hellenistic world and the Roman Empire, Parthia and Sasanian Iran, the Muslim East and Orthodox Byzantium. Reminders of Dagestan’s rich and complex historical destiny as the “heart of Eurasia” include more than 6 thousand historical and cultural monuments, of which 132 are of federal significance, and the museum city of Derbent, Russia’s oldest settlement, with a history spanning 5 millennia. It contains the UNESCO-recognised Naryn-Kala citadel (fifth century), the Great Caucasian Wall of Dag-Bary with remnants of towers (sixth century), the mausoleum of the khans (eighth century) and the country’s oldest mosque (eighth century). Equally renowned historical monuments include the Armenian Church of St Grigoris in Nyugdi village (fourth century), the Kala-Koreish fortress (ninth century), Datuna Church (tenth century), the Karakyur (tenth century), Kochkhyur (tenth–twelfth centuries) and Kumukh (thirteenth century) mosques, and the defensive towers of mountainous Dagestan. Medieval buildings in some auls stand alongside no less remarkable modern monuments: Russia’s highest arch dam at the Chirkey hydroelectric power station (232.5 m), its largest diversion-type hydroelectric station, Irganay, and the longest road tunnel in Russia and the CIS, the Gimry Tunnel (4285 m), among others. Among the many remarkable natural monuments are Russia’s only subtropical liana forest in the Samur delta; Sulak Canyon, deeper than Colorado’s famous Grand Canyon; the world’s largest freestanding sand dune, Sary-Kum; the remarkable Kug “Aeolian City”, with weathered remnants shaped like towers, pillars, mushrooms and arches; the Karadakh Gorge, the “Gates of Wonders”; the trout-rich mountain lake Kezenoy-Am, the largest and deepest in the North Caucasus; the Aymaki Gorge, inhabited since remote antiquity; and numerous waterfalls, large and small. One, Charaur, ranks fourth among Russia’s highest waterfalls (more than 250 m). Thus, a favourable geostrategic location, natural and climatic conditions, reserves of minerals, land, water and therapeutic mineral resources, unique historical and cultural monuments, relatively developed human and productive potential, and energy and transport infrastructure provide strong foundations for a successful long-term strategy for the republic’s socioeconomic development.
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1.2. Social and economic development of the Republic of Dagestan in 2010-2020gg
1.2.1. Macroeconomic dynamics and separate indicators of the efficiency of the region's economy.
Socio-economic processes in the Republic of Dagestan during 2010-2020They are characterized by unstable and contradictory trends (as well as in the subjects of the Russian Federation of the North Caucasus Federal District and in the country as a whole). The overall picture in the analyzed period is clearly divided into two periods: in the first period, 2010-2014There was a steady dynamics of growth and development in almost all major socio-economic indicators, which allowed the republic to enter the 20- the country's leading subjects by development rate; in the second half, 2015-2020In contrast, the region’s external positions among the subjects of the Russian Federation are mainly seen as stagnation and crisis processes. Tables 1.2.1. (official publications of Rosstat and Dagestanstat are used in the compilation of this and subsequent tables, unless otherwise specified). Nevertheless, the Republic of Dagestan in the period increased its potential: in the ranking of the socio-economic situation of the regions of the country, compiled by RIA Rating, for 2010-2020The position of the Republic has improved 15 The items moved from 64 Seats 49 Place by results 2020St Petersburg.1 The importance of the integrated rating for the republic 2020the City Council 34,0 (-0,7 per year) with the average value of the integrated rating of all regions 38,9 points (-3,8) and its median value 36,9 (In the range of possible values from 1 to 100 points). This speaks generally about the sustainability of the socio-economic situation of the republic, but sustainability at a relatively low level of development. The total volume of gross regional product (GRP) of RD in nominal terms has increased over 2010-2019the City Council 2,79 Once in a while I made 2019 the Year 718,5 billion rub. In total terms for all subjects of the Russian Federation during the period of GRP increased in 2,96 R. (unless otherwise stated, here and below, 2019the University of St Petersburg 2009d), by subjects of the Russian Federation SKFO - in 2,92 r., and three of them for the period achieved an increase in the indicator higher than in the republic: Republic of Ingushetia - growth for the period in 3,86 r., Chechen Republic – 3,76 R., Stavropol Krai – 2,98 again). In terms of gross regional product, the Republic of Dagestan currently occupies 2 place, after the Stavropol Territory (in 2010St Petersburg – 2 place), and among the subjects of the Russian Federation 34 Place (2010St Petersburg – 35 place). Contribution of the Republic of Dagestan to the total production of GRP under the NCFD 2019 St Petersburg – 31,3% (2010 – 30,8%, the Total Gross Domestic Product of Russian Federation – 0,76% (2010 – 0,73%): There has been no noticeable change in the indicators over the period. General picture of the dynamics of GRP of subjects of the Russian Federation 2010-2019the Table of Contents 2.1. the Annex 2, and graphically presented below in Fig.1.2.3. Production of gross regional product per capita in the Republic of Dagestan 2019 the City Council 231,9 thousand rubles (Russian Federation – 645,98 thousand rubles, SKFO – 232,0 thousand rubles). In ten years it has increased in the country 2,56 In other words, in the United States, in 2,88 r., SKFO - in 2,75 once. The level of the republic from the level of the similar indicator on average by subjects of the country for these ten years increased with the 59,6% to 64,1%; The smallest gap in terms of the indicator was observed at the end of 2014 St Petersburg – 56,2%. The increase in the population of the republic played a role. The trend of increasing the gap in the size of this indicator from the average Russian, was characteristic of the North Caucasus Federal District as a whole.
1See.: http://vid1.rian.ru/ig/ratings/rating_regions_2011.pdf ;
https://riarating.ru/infografika/20210531/630201353.html .
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Table 1.2.1. Dynamics of the main indicators of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan in 2010-2020gg,
% of previous year
2010 St Petersburg 2011 St Petersburg 2012 St Petersburg 2013 St Petersburg 2014 St Petersburg 2015 St Petersburg 2016 St Petersburg 2017 St Petersburg 2018 St Petersburg 2019 St Petersburg 2020 St Petersburg
The index of the physical volume of GRP in comparison with the prices of the labor force The index of labor productivity The level of GRP per capita, as a percentage of the average Russian level The volume of investments in fixed capital for half the circle of economic entities (in relative prices) The depreciation of fixed assets, as a percentage of the index of industrial production Production of agriculture The volume of work performed by type of activity The construction of housing by the total area of road transport Passenger
103,6 102,7
108,0 107,6
104,6 104,2
106,3 103,5
106,3 104,1
98,6 100,5
101,4 99,6
102,9 101,8
100,4 98,0
100,9 101,5
n.d. n.d.
36,0
35,6
36,6
40,7
43,8
42,2
40,8
38,1
35,8
35,9
n.d.
115,3 37,8 109,6 103,9
109,6 105,4 67,0 97,4 105,0 107,3
140,0 101,6 53,2 14,8
107,5 38,5 106,5 106,2
106,5 107,9 103,8 104,7 101,9 98,8
114,7 100,6 57,2 12,7
108,5 38,1 108,2 102,3
108,2 118,4 109,3 104,6 105,5 103,1
102,1 100,5 56,2 11,7
109,7 38,2 108,6 103,4
108,6 107,0 87,5 73,6 107,3 102,7
101,2 100,6 55,9 11,6
105,2 34,3 109,1 109,5
109,1 107,2 119,2 72,4 106,9 105,9
96,6 100,9 56,7 10,2
87,3 35,1 101,1 102,7
106,6 109,2 79,4 117,8 103,5 96,6
47,8 100,8 55,0 10,8
95,8 32,3 116,6 104,6
104,0 101,9 64,0 150,5 90,3 97,0
73,7 100,9 55,8 10,9
88,9 35,8 103,2 104,5
108,2 107,4 176,6 135,3 101,3 108,8
85,3 100,7 55,5 12,0
102,5 35,8 94,8 101,7
86,2 48,8 105,9 108,7 90,3 103,4
83,4 100,7 55,9 11,6
103,9 40,1 109,1 101,4
115,2 104,4 69,1 67,8 101,1 99,8
98,0 100,8 54,4 13,0
113,6 E 104,5 101,3
99,6 94,0 126,1 46,1 94,4 85,6
95,9 100,7 48,6 15,7
108,6
105,4
107,2
99,1
103,2
99,2
90,9
101,1
96,2
102,1
96,8
8,8
8,3
7,0
10,2
10,2
11,0
13,0
14,5
14,7
14,6
16,4
15
2 500 000,0
2 000 000,0
1 500 000,0
1 000 000,0
500 000,0
0,0
North Caucasus Federal District
Republic of Dagestan
Republic of Ingushetia
Kabardino-Balkar Republic
Karachay-Cherkess Republic
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania
Chechen Republic
Stavropol Krai
Rice.1.2.1. Dynamics of GRP of subjects of the Russian Federation in the North Caucasus Federal District 2010-2019Gov, billion Rubles in basic prices
On the production of GRP per capita among the subjects of the Russian Federation in the Northern Federal District, the Stavropol Territory and the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania are ahead of the Republic of Dagestan. However, even for these subjects, there is an increase in the lag from the average Russian corresponding indicator.
The volume of GRP of the Republic of Dagestan for the period increased 39,1%, the Russian Federation 's 24,9%, and by subjects of the Russian Federation: Republic of Ingushetia – 55%, the Kabardino - Balkar Republic – 22%, the Karachay - Cherkess Republic – 8%, the Republic of North Ossetia - Alania – 3%, the Chechen Republic – 38%, Stavropol Krai – 27%. Dynamics of the GRP volume index of the Republic of Dagestan 2010-2019the Table of Contents 1.2.2.
Table 1.2.2. Dynamics of the index of the volume of GRP RD in 2010-2019, in % to the previous year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019
Index of the physical volume of GRP RD* For reference: Index of the physical volume of GRP of the subjects of the Russian Federation
103,6 108,0 104,6 106,3 106,3 98,6 101,4 103,2 101,0 100,9
104,6 105,4 103,1 101,8 101,3 99,4 100,8 101,8 102,8 101,6
*Color marking: the mentioned periods of different dynamics are highlighted.
Compared to the period 2000-2009Average annual growth rate of GRP 2010-2019G is down from 13,7% to 3,4% or more than in 4 time, and compared to the period 2010-2014the City Council 2015-2019The rate decreased with 5,8% to 0,8%. GRP Structure-tour for certain types of economic activity in recent years 10-15 There have been notable changes in the years since (see Table 2.2. the Annex No2 and Rice. 1.2.2.). In the structure of the gross value added of the region, the largest share of 20,17% form - operate wholesale and retail trade, as well as repair services for motor vehicles, motorcycles, household products and personal items.
16
Despite the decline in these economic activities,
by 7% for 2010-2019gg (for 15 years, on the contrary, the share increased by 0,5%);
The second largest share in the GRP is formed by agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing and fish farming - 16,7% (increased over the period by 1,6%, and for 15 years - a decrease of almost 7%);
third, construction - 15,4% (decreased by almost 4,5%, for 15 years -
growth of almost 3%);
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Agriculture, hunting and forestry
Extraction of minerals
Manufacturing industries
Production and distribution of electricity,...
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade; repair ...
Hotels and restaurants
Transport and communications
Financial activities
Real estate transactions, leases and...
Public administration and security...
Education
Health care and social care...
Providing other utilities...
2005
2010
2019
Fig.1.2.2. Dynamics of the structure of GRP RD by types of economic activity in
2005, 2010 and 2019, in % (taking into account changes in OKVED from 2016 g)
Fourth, real estate transactions, lease and provision of services - 7,8%. It is necessary to take into account that in 2018-2019 the calculation of the structure of the GRP was made already taking into account the assessment of housing services produced and consumed by the owners of housing, and the assessment of consumption of fixed capital on the basis of its current market value (without appropriate adjustment for previous periods). This has had a significant impact on the industry’s share, increasing by almost 5% over the period;
fifth, public administration - 7,44% (growth by 1,3%, for 15 years - growth by
3,3%);
sixth, transportation, storage, information and communication - 6,89% (5,3% - Foreign Economic Activity
"Transportation and storage" decrease of more than 2%, for 15 years - for 7%;
seventh, industry (FEA "Mining", "Processing", "Electric energy, gas and steam supply; air conditioning", "Water supply; wastewater disposal, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities) - 6,7% (growth by 0,2%, for 15 years - decrease by 3,1%);
eighth, education - 5,84% (an increase of about 1%, for 15 years is almost not due to
has changed);
ninth, health and social services - 5,74% (growth almost
for 2%, for 15 years - more than 2%);
the tenth, others - 2,3% (growth more than 1%, for 15 years almost unchanged).
17
Thus, the economy of the Republic of Dagestan for the period continued the structural transformation and further progress towards the agrarian-polyservice economy 2. The overall dynamics of the GRP structure over the past 15 years shows that this situation in the economy of the RD is fixed - Table 1.2.3.
Table 1.2.3. Dynamics of the structure of the GRP of the Republic of Dagestan according to the criterion of
production of goods and services in 2005-2019, in %
Gross regional product, including: Production of goods Production of services
2005 St Petersburg 2010 St Petersburg 2015 St Petersburg 2019 St Petersburg 100,0 100,0
100,0
100,0
46,0 54,0
41,0 59,0
39,2 60,8
38,7 61,3
The share of industries producing goods in the GRP of RD for 2005-2019 decreased from 46,0% to 38,7%, and the GRP of the Russian Federation (the amount of GRP of the subjects of the Russian Federation) it has changed slightly and is 43%.
The GRP RD shows a significant increase in the share of mainly non-market services sectors 13,4% in 2005 G to G 20,5% in 2019 Mr. In these sectors, the processes of commercialization of services are gaining momentum (including shadow ones: taxes on the population and corruption), but increasing budget support, including federal support, contributes to this growth of non-market share in them. Another feature is the leading share of health, physical culture and social security sectors (growth from 7,7% to 13,2% during the period) in comparison with the increase in the share of education, cultural activities, sports, leisure and entertainment (with 5,7% to 7,3%).
The dynamics of changes in the share of high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries in the GRP of the republic is presented in Table 1.2.4. During the period in the country as a whole and the Northern Federal District, it practically did not change, and in the republic it increased from 12,7% to 14,3% (in 2015-2017 it tended to decrease). However, according to this indicator, the economy of the republic differs both from the average Russian level (19%) and from the corresponding indicators of other subjects of the Russian Federation in the district.
Table 1.2.4. The share of high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries in
GRP of the Republic of Dagestan in 2010-2019, %
0 1 0 2
Russian Federation 7 , 9 Subjects of Russian Federation) 1 North Caucasus 4 , 8 Federal District 1
(the amount
Republic of Dagestan
7 , 2 1
1 1 0 2
1 , 9 1
1 , 8 1
1 , 2 1
2 1 0 2
4 , 9 1
0 , 8 1
9 , 1 1
3 1 0 2
4 , 9 1
1 , 9 1
1 , 3 1
4 1 0 2
6 , 9 1
5 , 8 1
2 , 3 1
5 1 0 2
2 , 0 2
1 , 9 1
6 , 2 1
6 1 0 2
7 , 0 2
8 , 8 1
1 , 2 1
6 1 0 2
5 , 8 1
0 , 7 1
0 , 1 1
7 1 0 2
5 , 8 1
4 , 7 1
2 , 2 1
8 1 0 2
5 , 8 1
8 , 8 1
0 , 4 1
9 1 0 2
0 , 9 1
7 , 8 1
3 , 4 1
2 Agricultural and polyservice regions: 1.The share of total production in the foreign economic activity "Agriculture, hunting and forestry" and "Fishing and fish farming" in the structure of the GRP of the region is not less than 2 times higher than in the Russian Federation.
2.The share of production in the subject of the Russian Federation in the structure of GRP of the region is less than 0,8 values of the corresponding share in the Russian Federation.
See: A.O. Polynev, I.V. Grishina. Methodical approaches to typology construction
regions/regions. South of Russia. 2019. T. 7. № 1, Page.30-39.
18
Total investment in fixed assets in the Republic of Dagestan 2010-2020Gov 2085 billion Rub., and in 2020 He has reached 279,7 billion RUR increased in nominal terms during the period 2,74 times (Russia – 2,52 r., SKFO – 2,65 p.). Reference: growth in 2000-2009the City Council 7,06 once. In comparable prices, the volume of investments in fixed assets in the region increased over the period under review 39,6% – Tab faces 1.2.5.
Table 1.2.5. Dynamics of investments in fixed assets in the Republic of Dagestan
A full range of organizations in 2010-2020Gov* 3 1 0 2
0 1 0 2
5 1 0 2
1 1 0 2
2 1 0 2
4 1 0 2
6 1 0 2
Investments in fixed capital, billion rub. Investments in fixed capital, in % to previous year Share of investments in fixed capital to GRP
7 , 0 2 1
3 , 5 1 1
0 , 4 4
1 , 7 3 1
5 , 7 0 1
5 , 1 4
7 , 2 5 1
5 , 8 0 1
8 , 0 4
1 , 9 7 1
7 , 9 0 1
5 , 9 3
3 , 2 0 2
2 , 5 0 1
3 , 8 3
6 , 7 9 1
3 , 7 8
7 , 4 3
6 , 9 9 1
8 , 5 9
2 , 4 3
7 1 0 2
4 , 7 8 1
9 , 8 8
7 , 1 3
8 1 0 2
0 , 0 0 2
5 , 2 0 1
6 , 9 2
9 1 0 2
8 , 4 2 2
9 , 3 0 1
9 , 1 3
0 2 0 2
7 , 9 7 2
6 , 3 1 1
.
.
Dr N
*Color marking: the periods of different dynamics mentioned above are highlighted. At the same time, the total decrease in the level of investment in 2015-2017the City Council 25,6% (see the table above), it is still not replenished: the Republic has not yet reached the level of comparable investments 2014Mr. In addition, the bulk of investment is traditionally carried out in passive elements of fixed assets: buildings and structures (residential and non-residential) are sent about 60%, and for machinery and equipment - less 25%.
Index of the ratio of fixed investment to GRP - the multiplier of investments - for the period 2010-2019The C ’s 12 Items: c 44,0% to 31,9%. However, this is still significantly higher than in general by regions of the country (about 20%) and regions of the NCFD (27%). This generally favorable value of the investment multiplier has not been transformed into the corresponding dynamics of the republic’s economic development for a long time. This raises questions about the limits of growth, the new development paradigm, the effectiveness of management, as well as the objectivity of investment statistics in the region. Per capita investment rate increased during the period 2,5 Once and in 2020G has exceeded 89,9 thousand rubles - 65,2% of the average Russian level. This is 46 result in the country among the subjects of the Russian Federation, ahead, for example, neighboring Krasnodar and Stavropol territories. Major investments (excluding small businesses) in 2019-2020In the Republic, the following economic activities were carried out: construction (23,9% and 12,1%, transportation and storage (18,2% and 6,0%); Education (12,7% and 23,7%); Agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming (9,58% and 6,4%); provision of electric energy, gas and steam, air conditioning (7,7% and 16,0%); information and communications activities (6,3% and 3,5%), water supply, sanitation, waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities (3,2 and 3,5%), Health Care (2,9% and 11,2%), Public administration and military security, compulsory social security (3,8% and 13,3%).
Large and medium-sized organizations in 2020 d) invested in fixed capital in the republic 58 billion RUR, which is higher than last year's results 50,1%. At the same time 25,7% These investments are the organizations’ own funds, 74,3% Funds raised, including 0,2% Loans from banks, 70,8% budget funds. The share of small enterprises in total investment is extremely small – 6-8%, which shows, among other things, the low level of development of modern small innovative structures.
19
Budget investments in fixed assets in 2020the City Council 41,1 billion Rs. or 14,7% Total population in the country (previous years 10-12%, Federally around 8-10%). At the same time, over the past three years, the investment complex of the republic for various reasons could not use more than 30 billion Budget funds allocated for investments (mainly for the construction of social facilities). However, even in these circumstances, the results 2020There is clearly an increase in investment activities for the development of the infrastructure of the republic (energy, water supply and sanitation, educational, health, public administration and social security).
In the republic, foreign investments in fixed assets for the entire analysis period amounted to interest shares (mainly 0,1-0,2%, 2020g - 0,4%), as in all subjects of the Russian Federation in the North Caucasus Federal District, except for the Stavropol Territory.
The investment potential of the republic has always been high. For the period 2010- 2020According to experts3, the rank of investment potential of the Republic of Dagestan has increased to 30 the State of the Union - Improvement of 5 Items (for 2020G - ned 3 See para. From the individual components of the investment potential, the ranks of innovative (45 Place and +21 forward point for the period), tourist (44 Place and +15 b) the institutional (58 Place and +8 i) The Work (15 Place and +7 b) and consumer (12 Place and +3 b) the potential for deterioration 3 the Production Potentials Rank Point (55 place), infrastructure-tour (39 place) and natural resources (41 location); financial capacity remained unchanged (21 Place).
At the same time, rating agencies have previously noted high investment risks in the republic (the risk ranking in 2020St Petersburg – 84 place among the regions of the country) with their deterioration during the period of 11 Items. Therefore, in the rating of investment attractiveness of the regions of RA "Expert" the Republic of Dagestan was consistently in the group with low investment potential and the highest investment risk (group 3D)4. But the situation is beginning to change for the better, which was marked by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives of the Russian Federation at the last St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2021 g: clan-corruption and administrative pressure on the economy, unjustified interference of law enforcement agencies in business, albeit slowly, but is weakened. The results of the growth of investment in fixed assets are also encouraging 2020St Petersburg (113,6%).
For 2010-2020The annual volume of financial investments of organizations in the republic increased from 3,0 billion rub. up to 45,5 billion Rub. or in 15,2 once. In particular, this increase is observed with 2017 year - compared with the previous year growth in 2,7 once. The majority of these were short-term, except for 2010- 2012When the long-term investment rate is 36-46%. The sectoral structure of financial investments of organizations for the period did not change significantly - the overwhelming part of them was sent to manufacturing industries (production of food products, beverages, other vehicles and equipment), construction.
The improvement of the investment situation in the republic is mainly due to changes in the priorities of the socio-economic development of the republic, institutional and structural changes and risk reduction in the economy, development of human potential, infrastructure (including banking and credit) and the tourist and recreational complex of the region, entrepreneurship, the application of innovations and the increase of production potential, the growth of natural and resource potential.
3 See.: https://raex-a.ru/ratings/regions/2020#graph 4 https://raex-a.ru/ratings/regions/2020#graph
20
The state and opportunities of the region’s economy are largely determined by cash assets in the region’s economy, their structure and quality. Fixed assets in the economy of the Republic of Dagestan at their full accounting value at the end 2019the City Council 1825,8 billion RUR and increased compared to 2010the City of London 2,6 the Russian Federation (RF 3,75 r., SKFO – 3,1 times) - Table 2.3. the Annex 2. Over the period, the share of RD fixed assets in the total value of fixed assets under the NCFD decreased from 30,3% to 25,5% (2 place in the district). Core RD funds are 0,52% the National Capital Fund (49 place among the subjects of the Russian Federation).
Structure of fixed assets by types of economic activity in the Republic
Dagestan in 2019g (more recent data is not yet available) is presented in Fig 1.2.3.
ACTIVITIES IN HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES; 2,03
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, HUNTING, FISHING AND FISHING; 7,31
EDUCATION; 2,48
STATE MANAGEMENT AND MILITARY SECURITY; SOCIAL SECURITY; 3,93
PROPERTY OPERATIONS; 29,65
INFORMATION AND RELATIONSHIP ACTIVITIES; 1,33
TRANSPORTATION AND STORAGE; 25,29
PROCESSING PRODUCTS; 6,91
ELECTRICAL ENERGY, GAS AND PASSENGER SUPPLY; AIR CONDITIONING; 4,12
CONSTRUCTION; 1,79
TRADE, WHOLESALE AND RETAIL; REPAIR OF VEHICLES AND MOTORCYCLES; 10,26
Rice 1.2.3. Structure of fixed assets by type of economic activity in
RD in 2019g, as a percentage of their full accounting value at the end of the year
The most significant volumes of fixed assets in the economy of the republic are measured by types of activity: operations with real estate – 29,7%; trans-portation and storage – 25,3%; wholesale and retail trade, as well as repair services for motor vehicles, motorcycles, household goods and personal items – 10,3%; agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming – 7,3%; Manufacturing Industry – 6,9%; electric energy, gas and steam, air conditioning – 4,1%; Public administration and military security, compulsory social security – 3.9%; Education – 2,5%; Health – 2,0%; Construction – 1,8%; information and communication – 1,3%.
21
The structure of fixed assets of the Republic of Dagestan by types of economic activity has significant differences from the structure of fixed assets of the Russian Federation (SKFO): pre-existing minerals - the share of fixed assets is less in the 13,3 (in 2,3 a) less real estate transactions; and 1,6 Less than (in 1,4 p.); agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming - more in 3,9 More than once (in 1,1 b) Construction is more 2 transportation and storage - more in 1,7 more than in the NZF 1,6 p.); wholesale and retail trade, as well as repair services for motor vehicles, motorcycles, household goods and personal use items - more in 6,5 more than in the NZF 2,4 p.). In addition, by type of activity, public administration and military security, compulsory social security in the RD share of fixed assets in the 1,6 Less than the SFN.
Decline in total fixed investment in 2015-2017In the past few years (see above) significantly slowed down the renewal and modernization of fixed assets in the republic and did not allow to compensate for their current wear and tear: depreciation of fixed assets in the economy of the republic for 2010-2019C has increased with 36,7% to 40,1%, and in general for the Russian Federation and the Northern Federal District, the reverse picture is a decrease in the depreciation of fixed assets for the period under the Russian Federation 47,1% to 37,8%, the North - West Federal District 44,0% to 37,7% (See chap. Table 2.4. the Annex No2). At present, the deterioration of available fixed assets in the following economic activities is particularly high (67,4%), Transportation and storage (54%), information and communications activities (66,7%), Administrative and related additional services (78,8%), the Department of Public Administration and Social Security (62,5%).
In almost all branches of the social sphere (services), the depreciation of fixed assets significantly exceeds the average depreciation of fixed assets in the republic, the NCFD and the country as a whole. This situation with the renewal of fixed assets in the economic sectors of the Republic of Dagestan with the traditionally high unemployment rate in the region not only does not allow to expand the number of jobs, but even to replenish the outflow of obsolete jobs. C 2015g annual input of fixed assets in the republic in terms of its volumes was lower than in the previous year 2019Introduction of fixed assets (104,5 billion rub.) on 15,7% It was lower than in 2014St Petersburg (123,9 billion rub.).
In these circumstances, the urgent task for the republic is not only to increase the volume of investments in fixed assets, but also to ensure an adequate growth in the flow of fixed assets into the economy: the ratio of "inflow of fixed assets to the volume of investments in fixed assets" in the economy 2010-2012Gov 84-87%, in 2018-2019Gov 62-67%. It is necessary to minimize the inefficient and inappropriate use of budget funds allocated for the construction of social facilities and the development of the economy of the region, to accelerate the solution of the problem of unfinished construction 1 January 2020 The Republic was 1354 construction project for the amount of 41,4 billion Rubles. The facilities are located on the territory of all 52 Municipalities of the Republic. The Accounts Chamber of the RD 2020g, from n 775 The work is carried out in a planned manner, according to 499 of which works are suspended or objects are legalized, according to 80 – Work is more 5 years.
Number of workers in the region 2020 the Year of the Year 1286,8 thousands of people and during the period under review 15,1 thousands of people (on 1,19%). Average annual number of employed population in the Republic of Dagestan 2010-2019Mt. increased to 1109,4 Thousands (on 81,3 thousands of people or on 7,9%). Their distribution by type of economic activity is presented in Fig.1.2.4. According to Rosstat, in the economy of the republic in terms of the number of employed, four types of economic activity (FEA) are leading with the total number of employed in the country 698,0 Thousands of people or 62,9% the RD Economy:
agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming – 239,1 Thousands of people (decreased 2010-2019the City of London 27,1 thousands of people or on 10,2%), Proportion of total employed 21,6% (-4,3% for the period);
22
wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles -
201,0 Thousands of people (+38,7 Thousands of people or 23,8%), Specific gravity 18,1% (+2,3%);
Construction142,3 Thousands of people (+17,9 Thousands of people or 14,4%), Specific gravity 12,8% (0,7%); Education – 115,6 Thousands of people (-2,2 Thousands of people or -1,8%), Specific gravity 10,4% (-1,0%).
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing ...
Mining and Processing
0,3
0,5
5,9
6,8
25,9
21,6
supply of electricity, gas and ... water supply; water disposal, organization ...
Construction
wholesale and retail trade; repair ...
Transportation and storage
Hotels and businesses...
Information and communication activities Financial and insurance
activities in real estate operations ... activities professional, scientific and ... activities administrative and ... public administration and maintenance ...
Education
0,9 0,6
0,9
0,5
5,2
5,9
2,2
2,2
12,1 12,8
15,8
18,1
0,8 0,6 1,0 1,3 1,1
0,9 0,6
1,1 1,3 1,3
4,9
4,9
6,0
6,4
11,5
10,4
health and ... activities in the field, culture, sports, ...
1,6
Provision of other types of services
1,4
2,3
2,3
2010
2019
Fig.1.2.4. Structure of employment by economic activity in the economic
mike RD for 2010g and 2019g, in%
Another notable group of foreign economic activity with a total number of employees of 266,9 thousand people or
24,0% are:
Manufacturing Industry – 75,4 Thousands of people (+14,2 Thousands of people or 23,3%), Al-Haqq
weight 6,8% (+0,8%);
healthcare and social service activities — 71.3 thousand people (+9.5
thousand people or 15,4%, specific gravity 6,4% (+0,4%);
transportation and storage — 65.6 thousand people (+12.2 thousand people, or 22.8%), share
weight 5,9% (+0,7%);
Public administration and military security; social
security – 54,6 Thousands of people (+4,3 Thousands of people or 8,5%), Specific gravity 4,9% (0,0%).
There is also a group of types of foreign economic activity (the total number of employed 91,5 thousand people or 8,4%), where the number of employed in each of them exceeds 1%, but less than 3% of the total number of employed in the economy of the republic:
activities of hotels and catering enterprises – 24,7 Thousands of people (+2,1
thousand people or 9,3%), specific gravity 2,2% (0,0%);
activities in the field of culture, sports, leisure and entertainment organization - 15,8
Thousands of people (-2,2 Thousands of people or -1,5%), Specific gravity 1,4% (-0,1%);
administrative and related additional services - 14,4
Thousands of people (+2,8 Thousands of people or 23,8%), Specific gravity 1,3% (0,2%);
professional, scientific and technical activities – 14,1 Thousands of people (+0,9 thousands.
person or 7,2%), specific gravity 1,3% (0,0%);
23
Real estate activities – 12,2 Thousands of people (+1,1 thousands.
person or 20,9%), specific gravity 1,1% (0,1%);
provision of electric energy, gas and steam, air conditioning
– 10,3 Thousands of people (+0,7 Thousands of people or 20,9%), Specific gravity 1,1% (0,1%).
In all the remaining foreign economic activity (total number of employed 53,0 thousand people) with the number of employed in each less than 1 % of the total number of employed in the economy of the republic, during the period there was an increase in employment:
1,9 thousand people or 157,3 % by type of activity "mining"
(share +0,2%);
on 0,7 thousands of people or on 6,8% by type of activity "providing electrical energy
gia, gas and steam; air conditioning” (the share has not changed);
with 5,8 Thousands of people before 6,0 thousands of people or on 104,3%by type of activity "water supply; water disposal, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities" (share -0,1%);
from 8,4 thousand people to 9,7 thousand people or to 115,9% by type of "activities in the field of in-
Formations and Connections" (share +0,1%);
from 6,5 thousand people to 6,9 thousand people or 106,2% by type of "financial and financial activity"
Insurance (the share has not changed).
Monetary system: the volume of credit investments in the economy
Dagestan faces in 2010-2020 are presented below on the histogram - Fig. 1.2.5.
The volume of credit investments in the economy of the republic for the period increased by 2,94 times. In terms of the comparable volume of credit investments, taking into account the growth of prices in the investment complex of the region, the republic has not yet reached the level of 2012.
54786,8
39544,6
43263
44735,2
39073,9
32430,3
26144,3 28814,9
65227
53356
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
22197,6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fig.1.2.5. Loan investments in the Republic of Dagestan in 2010-2020, mln. rubles
The volume of credit investments of legal entities and individuals, as well as individual entrepreneurs in the economy of the RD in recent years has not exceeded 20-23% of the total investment. In developed economies, traditionally, the bulk of investment falls on attracted bank loans 70-80% of their total size. At the same time, the volume of funds mobilized by credit organizations on the spot has steadily increased in the republic. 1.2.6. The dynamics of the ratio of credit investments in the region and the funds attracted by credit organizations in the region has changed from 88-91% At the beginning of the period before 51-55% at the end of the period. Thus, almost half of the funds attracted by credit organizations do not work in the region. The picture is even more contrasting if we compare the volume of loans issued to legal entities and individuals, as well as individual entrepreneurs in the Republic of Dagestan and in the neighboring Stavropol Territory (with a comparable economy and population 2020 The city has been given loans for 417,5 billion Rub. or in 6,44 More than in the Republic. This gap has been much higher in previous years. Amounts of lending to legal entities and individual entrepreneurs of neighboring countries
24
regions also differ by factors of several tens, especially for agricultural producers. Clearly, the complex mechanisms for securing loan repayment with collateral also play a role here (often excessive—dozens of documents and approvals have to be collected!).
60591,9
61102,1
56390
63370,3
70930,6
117435
103745,6
79356,7
86177,5
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
25180,7
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fig.1.2.6. Deposits (deposits), loans and other attracted credit institutions
funds in the Republic of Dagestan in 2010-2020, million rubles.
The analysis highlights another general pattern in the Federal District as a whole: the share of loans issued annually by the banking system in the NCFD of their total volume in the country is about 2% or slightly above this threshold. At the same time, the population of the district is about 7% of the population of the country. This policy of credit limitation of the region and the republic by the banking and credit system continues for quite a long period and requires a detailed analysis of the reasons for this situation and the adoption of relevant decisions by federal and regional authorities, together with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and banking structures, to radically change this situation. The situation is not explained only by the high credit risks of the region. In this situation, entrepreneurs often find themselves forced to resort to the registration of consumer loans or even worse - to turn to microfinance organizations, especially small businesses.
At the same time, lending rates are rising and, in the conditions of stagnation of the economy, they lead to an increase in the risks of non-repayment of loans. Consequently, the situation is even worse: the share of overdue loans in the 2020 G is slightly higher than the national average – 5,86% Against 4,05%. However, it is encouraging that for one economically active resident of the republic there is an average of about 6,0 Thousands of rubles of overdue credit debt (83 place among the regions of the country) - more than in 3 less than the national average5 (Real credit rating of the region!).
In the course of the analysis, it was impossible not to notice the obvious policy of limiting the de-tender mass, respectively, of monetary circulation in the republic. According to the territorial bank of the Central Bank of Russia and Dagestan, for the period 2010-2017After the official data were not published, the money supply (cash and non-cash, monetary aggregate M2) The economy of the republic has increased in 1,57 In the same period, the GRP of RD increased in 2,2 once. Cash in circulation decreased during the same period 4,32 percentage or percentage of the 35,5% to 5,5%. For reference: cash in Russia was more 20% the Money Unit M2 country as a whole. General picture of the dynamics of money supply and GRP in the Republic of Dagestan 2010-2017G is presented in the Table 2.5. the Annex No2 the Rice River.1.2.7.
Were it not for such restrictive monetary policy, the growth of the GRP of the republic over the analyzed period would have been much higher and, probably, it would have been possible to avoid a long-term decline.
5 https://www.tadviser.ru/index.php/Статья:Кредитование_в_России_(задолженность)
25
economic stagnation in the region: to stimulate economic growth, the rate of growth of the money supply had, on the contrary, to outpace the growth rate of GRP in the region 1,2-1,5 once. V 2010-2017 The ratio of the money supply in the RD to the GRP of the republic decreased from 16,4% to 11,9%, This was one of the main factors of demand restriction, stagnation and crisis state of the economy. For example, in the Russian Federation, the ratio of money supply M2 GDP is now around 54% and even this ratio does not allow to launch a mechanism of sustainable growth in the country.
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Money supply M2 (at the end of the year), million rubles
cash outside the banking system, million rubles
cashless funds, million rubles.
GRP (at the end of the year), million rubles.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fig.1.2.7. Dynamics of money supply (M2), cash (M0) and GRP
the Republic of Dagestan in 2010-2017
All this was a consequence of the mass liquidation of credit institutions and their financial institutions (quantitatively decreased by a factor of ten over the period). Currently, in terms of the banking system, the Republic of Dagestan has slipped from a leading position among the subjects of the Russian Federation in the early 2000-ies to the last place in the country.
Thus, starting in 2013–2014, the use of credit resources in the republic’s economy declined substantially and the total money supply fell significantly. Then, in 2015–2017, investment contracted sharply. Together with the decline in the population’s real incomes, discussed below, this created all the conditions for stagnation and crisis in the republic’s socioeconomic development. The economy’s money supply began to recover gradually only in 2018–2020. However, lending to the economy, investment and the population’s monetary incomes have not yet returned even to their 2012–2014 levels. Clearly, rapid growth in monetary incomes and investment, supplying the regional market with money, and a substantial expansion of lending to businesses and households on acceptable terms are essential conditions for the republic’s continued successful and sustainable socioeconomic development.
Fiscal processes: during 2010-2020revenues of the consolidated budget of the republic and the territorial state extra-budgetary fund increased in 3,35 Once and in 2020the City Council 215,8 billion RUR, and expenses for the period increased in 3,17 Once and last year they reached 214,1 billion rub. Republican budget revenues increased during the period 2,9 Once and in 2020G has reached 169,7 billion RUR, and expenses for the period increased in 2,73 Last year and last year they made 168,8 billion rub. Local budget revenues increased during the period 2,14 Once and in 2020G has reached 65,0 billion RUR, and their expenses for the period increased in 2,0 Last year and last year they made 64,1 billion rub.
In the Republic of Dagestan, measures are being taken to ensure the balance and sustainability of the budget, maintaining the total amount of financial resources at the level necessary for the performance of functions and obligations.
26
A set of measures to increase their own tax and non-tax revenues is also being carried out, the Action Plan for the mobilization of income and the phenomenon of hidden sources of taxation and the Program for Financial Recovery and Socio-Economic Development for the years 2020-2024 are being implemented.
As a result of the measures taken, there is a stable positive trend in the growth of taxes and fees of the consolidated budget, which for 2018-2020 years grew by 8-13% annually. At the same time, tax and non-tax revenues of the budget system for the period 2010-2020gr increased by 3,4 times. In accordance with the Program, it is planned to expand the tax base for property taxes, legalize business activities, reduce debts and reduce arrears in payments to the budget, as well as reduce informal employment of the population.
However, despite the measures taken, the share of taxes and fees in the total revenues of the budget of the republic, without subventions, is 28,6% or 46,7 billion rupees that only provide 26% Costs. The region remains highly dependent on financial assistance from the federal budget: income of the subject of 1 January 2021 more than on 74% formed from gratuitous revenues from other budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation. The actual level of funding of the budget of Dagestan, although reduced, has remained within the limits of the budget in recent years 50%. In the consolidated budget revenues, the share of corporate income tax was 5,4% in 2009G and G 2,2% in 2020g, personal income tax 8,6% and 10,7%, Accordingly, excises – 1,8% and 4,0%. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance of Russia 2021 Dagestan in terms of tax potential is on the penultimate level among the regions of Russia. The revenue part of the budget of the republic in the predominant part is formed at the expense of personal income tax, the share of which in taxes and fees in the 2020 the Year of the Master 49,5%.
For a long time on budget per capita, the republic occupied places in the seventh and eighth ten among the regions of the country, but in the second half of the year 2020Social expenses of the consolidated budget of the Republic of Dagestan 53,53 thousand rubles per resident – 57 place in terms of expenses among the subjects of the Russian Federation (2019 St Petersburg – 81 place). For social expenditures in total expenditures of the consolidated budget of the region 2020G G 77,2% – increased with 2015the City of London 7,2 Paragraphs.
In the budget of the Republic of Dagestan, as in the budgets of other neighboring republics, the share of expenditures for the formation, development and use of human potential is significantly higher than the average for the regions of Russia (62,4%). In the expenditures of the consolidated budget of the Republic, the proportion of expenditures on education in 2020the City Council 28,0% (2009St Petersburg 26,3%), on health, social policy culture, art, cinematography, media, physical culture has increased – 53,1% (2009St Petersburg 26,9%), Public administration, local self-government, law enforcement and security of the state – 5,3% (2009St Petersburg 11%), Industrial production and construction - during the period funds were not allocated, agriculture and fishing – 2,1% (2009St Petersburg – 2,9%).
The deterioration of the economic situation and business climate in the republic to the period under analysis affected business activity in the public. First of all, the number of economic entities in the republic has significantly decreased: only for 2016-2019According to official Rosstat data, the number of organizations for all types of economic activity decreased by more than a year 5,4 thousands of organizations or 15,4%. Significant reduction in the number of organizations during the period: agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming (37,6%); Manufacturing Industry (18,4%); water supply, water disposal, waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities (33,7%); Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (25,9%);
27
activities of hotels and catering enterprises (23,1%); Information and communication activities (19,4%; Financial and insurance activities (29,7%). In general, the contradictory policy in relation to the development of small and medium-sized businesses, a high level of corruption and administrative-bureaucratic pressure have also led to a significant reduction in their number in the republic compared to the previous year 2010 Year.
At the same time, the specific indicators of the development of entrepreneurship in the republic are lower than the national average by 3-5 times. The same imbalance exists within the republic between the separate zones, districts and cities of the republic.
Performance indicators of organizations have deteriorated significantly. Despite the relatively low level of loss-making organizations for the period – 20- 22%, The aggregate economic result of Dagestan enterprises in the second half of the analyzed period tended to increase losses 2017-2019The profit and loss balance of the companies increased from -8,2 billion rub. up to -18,8 billion The total loss in the economy as a whole 24,2 billion Rubles; almost 24 billion Losses are incurred by organizations and 2020 b) in the case of a loss or gain on -15,1 billion Rubles. High losses began to show the wholesale trade link, experiencing increasing pressure of modern forms of network and electronic commerce.
The debt of the organizations is growing at a high rate 1 January 2021G G 183,4 billion The rub, from which 71,8 billion RUB or 39,1% – Overdue. The main problems here are in the industry of production, transmission and distribution of electricity, where overdue accounts payable about 50 billion rub. Accounts receivable 1 January 2021 Imprint 45,0 billion Rubles, from it overdue – 11,1 billion Rubles or 24,6% of the total.
Labour productivity in the economy of the Republic of Dagestan, as determined by the GRP, for 2010-2019 increased on 25,8%. This is higher than in all other subjects of the Russian Federation of the North Caucasus Federal District, but significantly lower than the average for the subjects of the Russian Federation – 32% (See chap. Table 1.2.7.).
Table 1.2.7. Labor productivity index in 2010-2019gg, in % to the previous year
0 1 0 2
2 , 3 0 1
7 , 2 0 1
1 1 0 2
8 , 3 0 1
6 , 7 0 1
2 1 0 2
8 , 3 0 1
2 , 4 0 1
3 1 0 2
1 , 2 0 1
5 , 3 0 1
4 1 0 2
8 , 0 0 1
1 , 4 0 1
5 1 0 2
7 , 8 9
5 , 0 0 1
6 1 0 2
1 , 0 0 1
6 , 9 9
7 1 0 2
1 , 2 0 1
8 , 1 0 1
8 1 0 2
1 , 3 0 1
0 , 8 9
9 1 0 2
6 , 2 0 1
5 , 1 0 1
0 1 0 2
g 9 1 0 2
1 , 2 2 1
7 , 5 2 1
Russian Federation
Republic of Dagestan
The energy intensity of the Republic of Dagestan’s GRP fell during 2012–2019 from 165.7 kg to 138.8 kg of fuel equivalent per 10 thousand roubles, or by 16.3%, a greater improvement than for the Russian Federation as a whole (13.5%). Dagestan’s GRP energy intensity is 23.6% above the Russian average, but substantially below that of the other federal subjects in the North Caucasus Federal District: the differences range from 9.3% to a factor of 2.81 (Table 2.6). Data on the structure of fixed assets, employment, GRP and tax/non-tax receipts into the budget system by type of economic activity are summarised in Table 1.2.8. These data were used to determine the efficiency of individual types of economic activity in the Republic of Dagestan by comparing the principal regional resources they use—the number of employed persons (ЧЗ) and fixed assets (ОФ)—with the main results achieved using them: gross regional product (GRP) and tax revenues (НП) into the budget system.
28
Table 1.2.8. Efficiency of certain types of economic activity in the Republic of Dagestan * Amount of Ranks of shares in terms of GRP and li-NP by the order of RD 4 17,6
Amount of shares in the PF and PE according to RD 2 28,91
Grade by weight 7 16
Rank by rank
Dec. 4/Dec.2
6 0,61
3 3
5 5
0,86
14,59 28,36
31,19 2,65
1 Agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing, fisheries Mining 1,14 Manufacturing industries 13,71 5,02 Provision of electric energy, gas and steam; air conditioning Water supply, sanitation, social services and waste management, activities and pollution elimination Construction Trade wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Transportation and storage Activities of hotels and public catering Activities in the field of information and communications Activities financial and insurance activities on operations with real estate
12,88 8,43
30,75
1,72
8,83
1,47
2,23
1,75
1
16 6 10
3,5 21,5 8,3
13 3 11
3,07 1,57 1,64
2 7 6
18
2,5
15
2,93
3
5 4
1 11
12
17
2
15
13
8
7 9
22,5 28,0
10,4 5,3
2,9
14,9
8,4
1,5
1,6
20,4
14,5 11,7
2 1
9 12
14
6
10
18
17
4
7 8
1,54 0,99
8 14
0,33 2,02
17 5
1,30
10
14,90 1
0,27
18
1,03
13
0,94
15
2,31
4
1,13 1,39
11 9
14
1,9
16
1,12
12
*Color marking: leading positions in terms of indicator value, positions with
indicators above the average, positions with indicators below the average, outsider positions in terms of the value of the corresponding indicators.
29
The five most effective types of activities are (hereafter - on decreasing efficiency): financial and insurance activities; mining; water supply, sanitation, waste collection and disposal, activities and pollution elimination; public administration and security; social security.
The above average results show: provision of electricity, gas and steam, air conditioning; manufacturing; construction; health and social services; information and communication activities.
The following are below average effective: education; cultural, sports, leisure and entertainment activities; professional, scientific and technical activities; wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles.
The lowest results in terms of accepted evaluation criteria are: administrative and related additional services; agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing, fish farming; transportation and storage; real estate activities.
It should be borne in mind that some types of economic activities have their own specifics, which affect their effectiveness according to the accepted criteria of comparison: education, health care and some others - services are mainly non-commercial in nature; transportation and storage, real estate operations - the main assets in them mainly with long terms of use, etc.
1.2.2. Human Potential and Social Development. Integral assessment
quality of life of the population.
Population of the Republic of Dagestan 1 January 2021G G 3133 Thousands of people For the period 2010-2020 The years have increased by 265 thousands of people or on 9,2% (Tab faces 1.2.9.), Including the city of 134,6 Thousands of people. (10,5%) and rural 129,9 Thousands of people (8,2%).
Table 1.2.9. Population dynamics of the Republic of Dagestan 2010-2020at the end of the year) 6 3 1 1 0 0 2 2
2 1 0 2
9 1 0 2
8 1 0 2
5 1 0 2
7 1 0 2
1 1 0 2
0 2 0 2
4 1 0 2
0 1 0 2
2010-
2020
Population by year, thousand people. Dynamics, in % to the previous year
4 1 9 2
6 , 1 0 1
1 3 9 2
6 , 0 0 1
6 4 9 2
5 , 0 0 1
4 6 9 2
6 , 0 0 1
0 9 9 2
9 , 0 0 1
5 1 0 3
8 , 0 0 1
2 4 0 3
9 , 0 0 1
4 6 0 3
7 , 0 0 1
6 8 0 3
7 , 0 0 1
1 1 1 3
8 , 0 0 1
3 3 1 3
7 , 0 0 1
+265,0
109,15
In Russia, only the Chechen Republic and the Republic of Ingushetia are ahead of Dagestan in terms of population growth over the same period. According to the estimate for 2020, the population of the republic is younger than the working age was more than 790 thousand people (25%, Russia - 18,7%), older than the working age - about 450 thousand people.
30
The share of the urban population in the total population is currently 45,3% (increased over 11 years by 0,5%), and rural - 54,7% (decreased by the same 0,5%). Slow change in the degree of urbanization of the republic is observed for a long time. Processes can accelerate under the influence of significant growth in housing construction, mainly in cities.
Population growth in the republic was sustained by a traditionally high birth rate and a decline in mortality: per 1000 inhabitants, the respective rates in 2020 were 14.9 and 6.2 (in 2019 — 14.8 and 4.8), and in 2010 — 18.0 and 5.9, respectively—Table 1.2.10.
Table 1.2.10. Dynamics of fertility, mortality and natural population growth rates in 2010-2020gg by RD, by 1000 people of population
Birth rate Mortality Natural increase
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 18,0 18,1 19,0 18,8 19,1 18,2 17,4 16,4 15,6 14,7 14,9 5,9 6,2 5,4 12,1 12,5 13,4 13,3 13,5 12,8 12,2 11,3 10,8 10,0 8,7
5,1
4,8
4,7
5,2
5,6
5,6
5,5
5,6
Up to 2014The birth rate in Dagestan has steadily increased - increased from 18,0 to 19,1 on the background of a slower growth or decline in the birth rate in the Russian Federation as a whole (increase in 12,62 to 13,3). There is a noticeable decline - until 14,9, As the national average (9,8). Mortality rate 1000 population in the republic is usually at a low level and has decreased up to 2020When he grew up with 4,7 to 6,2 due to the "coco-like" pandemic and its side effects. According to the absolute value of natural population growth, the Republic of Dagestan is a long time 1 place among the subjects of the Russian Federation: only in the last three years, the natural increase in population amounted to more than 91 Thousands of people.
Life expectancy at birth is one of the key indicators included in the calculation of the human development index, and the main integral indicator for inter-country and interregional comparisons of the level and quality of life of the population. the OPG for the Republic of Dagestan 2010-2019GG has grown 73,87 Year to Year 79,1 the Year 2019Mr. This was facilitated by good heredity, favorable natural factors of places of residence, mainly a healthy, calm and measured lifestyle of Dagestanis and the peculiarities of nutrition, certain successes of modern medicine with the strengthening of its material and technical base and the improvement of the quality of medical care of the population in the region. The Republic of Dagestan takes quite a long time in terms of the size of the OPG 2 place in the country (after the Republic of Ingushetia). Due to the increase in population mortality due to the co-ronavirus pandemic, the OPG in the republic 2020G is down to 77,73 years.
The dynamics of demographic processes in the near future will be determined by a number of adverse factors that have emerged in past years, if appropriate measures are not taken. At the same time, a further slowdown in the birth rate is expected, including for the following reasons:
1.Reduction of the total fertility rate (how many children are born per woman at childbearing age). In the Republic, after the rise in 2010-2014the University of St Petersburg 1,92 to value 2,08, in 2015-2020DH has declined to 1,79 (See chap. Tab-face 1.2.11.), that does not provide even a simple reproduction of the population of the republic in the future - for this, the birth rate should be 2,14-2,22.
Table 1.2.11. Dynamics of total fertility rate in the Republic of Dagestan in 2010-2020gg 2018 1,86
2016 2017 1,98 1,91
2012 2,03
2015 2,02
2014 2,08
2013 2,02
2019 1,8
2020 1,786
2011 1,98
2010 1,92
31
2.The entry into the childbearing age of a smaller generation, born in the second half of 1990 and 2000. This is evidenced by the age structure of the population of the republic - Fig. 1.2.12.
10
8
6
4
2
0
%
I would have to go to D.
the University of London
i and n e e e c a n and t c o n e l c and h
7,9
8,2
7,9
8,9
9,2
7,1
7,2
7,5
6,3
6,1
5,9
5,9
4,7
4,3
2,9
0-4
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70 and more
Age groups
Fig.1.2.8. Age structure of RD population at 1.01.2020g
3.Reduction in the number of marriages and increase in the age of marriage of young people (family formation). Number of marriages 1000 Population for 2010-2020It has been reduced by almost two times, c 8,1 to 4,4. The number of divorces is also increasing 1000 Marriages are more 380 Divorces.
4 Postponement of the birth of the first child and subsequent children, in particular
the second (the total fertility rate of the second children is 0,52).
5. Gradual weakening of the dominance factor of the large family model in Dagestan society (the total fertility rate of third and subsequent children is 0,52).
6.Relatively high infant mortality: in 2020 Number of children who died before 1 the Year 1000 Born alive, by RD 6,7 (the Russian Federation – 4,5). Significant progress is also worth noting: the indicator for the period decreased in 2,13 times.
In recent years, migration outflows outside the republic have decreased, but the negative migration balance remains at a relatively high level. So in 2018-2020 The migration balance in exchange with the regions of Russia was minus 21,8 thousand people - the second place in the country among the subjects, after the Omsk region (-34,6 Thousands of people). Currently, in the republic not only individual settlements, but entire municipal districts lose their population, the population of individual territories is reduced. During the period c 2010Population decline is observed in 14 Municipal areas: Agul (on 8,7%), Akushinsky (0,4%), (Akhtynsky (5,1%), Dakhadaev (0,7%), Dokuzparinsky (3,3%), Kulinsky (1,3%), Kurakhsky (6,2%), Laksky (2,9%), Magaramkent (1,2%), Nogai (18,9%), Rutulsky (8,7%), Suleyman - Stalin (5,6%), Tabasaran (4,9%), Khivsky (8,6%).
The transformation of demographic processes results in a significant increase in the demographic burden on the working-age population. With one hundred, against the background of an increased birth rate, the share of the population younger than the working age remains one of the highest in the country - 24,0% of the total population of the republic in 2020, in the Russian Federation - 18,7%. On the other hand, the increase in life expectancy leads to a gradual aging of the population. These trends create significant challenges in the formation of social infrastructure in the republic: providing the population with services of preschool institutions and schools, providing facilities for health infrastructure and social security systems for older people and the elderly.
The total number of unemployed citizens (according to the ILO methodology) in the RD last year reached 201,5 thousand people and increased in 2010-2020 by 30,1 thousand people or 17,6%.
32
Such a number of unemployed as in the Republic of Dagestan for a long time (more than 15 years), is not observed in any other subject of the Russian Federation, including the most densely populated. The unemployment rate in the republic during the last decade was higher than the average in Russia in 2-2,5 times and was kept equally high in both rural and urban areas (on average in Russia, the excess of rural unemployed over urban - 1,8 times, in the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District - 1,1 times), as well as the average time of job search. The problem of unemployment in the republic began to worsen even more, starting from the second half of the analyzed period, when the balance of the outflow of old and the creation of new jobs in the republic’s economy became sharply negative.
Employment and unemployment in the Republic 2020The pandemic has worsened significantly: this level of employment (46,4%) and high levels of unemployment (15,7%) The Republic of Dagestan has not been in the last decade. The number of employed people in 2018-2020The D-Day 140,0 Thousands of people or more 11,4%. But such a large-scale reduction in the number of employed people has not turned into a corresponding increase in unemployment rates in the public and the issue requires clarification by statisticians.
Estimates from the ILO methodology do not include those who have been desperate to find work and have stopped looking for it for a long time, especially in rural areas. According to estimates, more than 120 thousand people live in the Republic of Dagestan. Registered as unemployed in the bodies of the employment service at the end of 2020, according to the Ministry of Labor, 106,1 thousand people (an increase of 5,2 times).
The need for employees at the end of even the pre-crisis period declared by employers to state employment service institutions 2019G G 923 It's a trap. The burden of the unemployed population on the registration, based on the 1 The advertised vacancy is 22 People, in Russia – 0,5 People in the NCSF – 3,7 Human. Thus, the republic is characterized by a high coefficient of tension in the regulated labor market. The average age of the unemployed is 32,4 years. The largest age groups of unemployed 20-24 and 25-29 years. Their share is 45,2% All the unemployed. Most unemployed have secondary (complete) general education – 44,1%, A 66% Unemployed job seekers have no work experience. In this regard, entrepreneurs are deficient in qualified personnel. The level of education seeking work does not correspond to the modern needs of entrepreneurs.
On the other hand, a large number of people in the region have jobs, though not in the formal economy. However, if we consider the number of employees in private farms, where more 77,5% agricultural products of the republic, engaged in their own housing construction and repair of their own housing, as well as in some other areas, which in their field cannot be attributed to shadow employment, the scale of shadow employment, as well as the scale of the shadow economy in the Republic of Dagestan, will be overestimated: its share is not more than 30-35% (the Russian Federation 20,7% in 2019 year). The non-formal sector of the economy has a restraining character for the development of the economy of the republic, at the same time, there is no need to hypertrophiedly exaggerate its scale: for this, there is no corresponding scale of economic base and economic activity, as indicated by indirect specific indicators of the welfare of the population (for example, indicators of nutrition and consumption of services, housing, durable goods, transport, etc.).
The number of high-performance jobs in the economy of the republic 2013-2020C has increased with 86,2 thousands before 120,1 thousands or on 139,3% (See chap. Table 2.7. the Pre - bed No2). The largest number of such jobs are currently available: in health care and social security – 41,7 Thousands of places or more 60% (Growth in 7,15 times);
33
in public administration and military security, social protection – 33,7 Thousands or 28% (decreased by 21,4%); in education – 10,8 Thousands or 10% (Growth in 2,3 a) the manufacturing industry – 7,3 Thousands or 6,1 % (Growth in 1,27 times); transport and communications – 6,9 Thousands or 5,8% (decreased by 11,5%). At the same time, if we compare the number of high-performance jobs by types of economic activity in the republic, for example, with the Stavropol Territory, it should be noted that in the Republic of Dagestan the situation in health care and social security, as well as education, is better; almost the same in public administration and military security, social insurance. However, the situation is ten times worse by type of activity: agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming; water supply, sanitation, organization of collection and disposal of waste, pollution elimination activities; activities of hotels and catering facilities; activities related to real estate operations; wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles.
The personnel trained for this purpose play a decisive role in the introduction and use of modern high-production technologies and industries. According to Rosstat 2020g. the proportion of the workforce aged 22 years and older, with secondary vocational and higher education, in the total workforce of the corresponding age in the republic at present barely exceeds 59%. There is no such low quality of labor anywhere else in the subjects of the Russian Federation (on average in the Russian Federation – 80,2%, SKFO – 68%).
Thus, in the Republic of Dagestan, unemployment, educational and qualification levels of workers, and the creation of new jobs have escalated to the limit.
Cash income of the population in 2010-2020C has increased with 544,0 billion rub. up to 1035,9 billion Rub. or in 1,9 once. At the same time, according to the same Rosstat, the real disposable income of the population of the republic over the years has increased by only one percent 8,8% (Rice.1.2.13.), In other words, they actually stayed at the level of 2010Mr. By results 2019At a comparable level of income, the Republic was already at the level of 2012the City and City 2020The situation has deteriorated further.
108,6
105,4
107,2
103,2
99,1
99,2
101,1
102,1
96,2
96,8
90,9
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fig.1.2.9. Dynamics of real disposable income of the population
Dagestan in 2010-2020gg, in % to the previous year
In the structure of monetary incomes of the population is still a low share of wages, pensions, benefits and social benefits - in total about 35%. The share of income from business activities and property - about 6%, Income from other sources is more 59%. Average monthly wages in the general economy of the 2020 G G 32,3 thousand rubles and increased for 2010-2020the City Council 3,54 times (Russia – 2,76, SKFO – 2,8).
34
Real wages for the period under review increased by 71,1% (Russian Federation – 38,5%, SKFO – 39,9%). Despite the measures taken, in terms of the average monthly wage, the republic is in the seventh ten among the regions of the country and about the same 30% Employees are paid less 15 thousand rubles per month, and the minimum wage – 26,8%. These are “anti-records” among the Russian regions. Average monthly per capita income per 2020 the Year 27,8 thousands of rubles (higher than in the subjects of the Russian Federation SKFO and the Republic in the fifth ten among the subjects of the country).
It should be noted that the estimates of the statistical agencies of the average per capita incomes and the total monetary incomes of the population of the republic cause problems with the expert community: their sizes seem significantly overestimated and do not agree with other indicators of the standard of living of the population and surveys of household budgets in the region, etc. The data require further clarification, as well as the value of the so-called "shadow incomes" of the population based on these data - by estimates, is overstated by more than 25%. However, their withdrawal from the shadow remains relevant.
In the light of the above, the poverty rate of the population has naturally increased in the republic 8,0% to 14,6-14,8% (near 460 Thousands of people) in 2019-2020Total expenditure It is almost in 2 This is more than the average Russian poverty rate. The increase in the level of poverty in the republic occurred against the background of a predominant decrease in income inequality between individual segments of the population - the situation is moving in the direction of "equality in poverty" 1.2.13.
Table 1.2.13. Dynamics of Gini coefficient, fund coefficient and Decil coefficient for RD in 2010-2020Gov 3 1 0 2
0 1 0 2
4 1 0 2
5 1 0 2
2 1 0 2
7 1 0 2
1 1 0 2
9 1 0 2
6 1 0 2
8 1 0 2
Gini coefficient
Fund ratio, times
Decimal coefficient, times
8 9 3 , 0
1 , 4 1
9 5 , 6
3 0 4 , 0
5 , 4 1
4 7 , 6
7 0 4 , 0
0 , 5 1
9 , 6
1 9 3 , 0
3 , 3 1
3 3 , 6
0 9 3 , 0
3 , 3 1
1 3 , 6
6 8 3 , 0
9 , 2 1
7 1 , 6
3 8 3 , 0
6 , 2 1
8 0 , 6
5 9 3 , 0
7 , 3 1
6 4 , 6
3 9 3 , 0
5 , 3 1
9 3 , 6
4 9 3 , 0
6 , 3 1
3 4 , 6
0 2 0 2
3 8 3 , 0
6 , 2 1
8 0 , 6
The high level of poverty in the republic and the level of inequality in the incomes of individual groups of citizens are, first of all, a reflection of low monetary incomes, wages and pensions of the population, as well as a high level of unemployment in the region.
The general picture with the formation, use and development of the human dimension in the republic for the analyzed period is characterized by indicators from the Table 2.8. the Annex No2 and based on them Rice.1.2.9. Almost all indicators, except for population and unemployment, show the same growth dynamics in the first half of the period and the downward trend in the second period. And unemployment, of course, was in the opposite phase of the dynamics.
It should be noted that there are inconsistencies in the data on the formation, development and use of human potential by official statistical bodies, which require further research and clarification of the reasons for this situation. For example, in the absence of dramatic changes in demographic processes, with the implementation of the adopted version of the pension reform and the presence of some other factors, there can be no such noticeable decrease in the level of participation in the labor force and the number of the labor force itself.
35
The total volume of retail trade turnover in the Republic of Dagestan increased over the period from 317,2 billion rub. up to 588,0 billion rub. or on 213,7% in 2020 City (Russia – 232,0%, SKFO – 235,8%). The growth of per capita turnover in the republic amounted 1,95 times - significantly less than the average for the subjects of the Russian Federation (2,26 a) and the SCFA (2,21 p.). the Dagestan Republic Retail Volume Index 2010- 2020Gov 105,6% (the Russian Federation – 113,9%, the NCFD – 119,9%). The number of public catering companies in the Republic of Dagestan has increased 2009-2020the University of St Petersburg 25,9 billion rub. up to 54,8 billion rub. or on 212,0% in 2020 City (Russia – 203,1%, SKFO – 239,2%). Index of physical volume of public catering in the Republic of Dagestan 2010- 2020Gov 84,0% (If you don't take into account the cod 2020St Petersburg – 121,7%), On average, the RF subjects – 109,9% (142,0%), the NCFD – 14,6% (142,4%).
Rice 1.2.10. Dynamics of the main indicators of formation, development and use of human potential of RD in 2010-2020, as a percentage of the previous year
The volume of services of the tourist industry of the republic 2020 In the past year, statistics have been downgraded, 4,0 billion rub. Despite the steady growth of the tourist flow in recent years, the volume of services of the tourist industry in comparable areas is increasing much more slowly. On 2020 The total number of collective accommodation facilities in the republic is 130 units. In terms of accommodation of guests of Dagestan, both for certain types of accommodation facilities, and for their total number takes 58 place among the regions of Russia, located between the city of federal importance Sevastopol (138 DAC and Novgorod Region (134 CEB).
Housing Fund of the Republic of Dagestan at the beginning 2020 the Year 61,3 million square metres of total living space: increased over the period. Total living space in the urban area by the end 2019 the Year 26,1 million square metres or 42,6% The entire housing stock. Moreover, more 1/5 The total area of the housing stock in the city district of Makhachkala is 2019 the Year 13,2 million square metres. In the local executive authorities in the queue for housing are more 55 Thousands of families, more than 16 Thousands of families are waiting for housing 10 and more years. The share of families registered and improved their conditions in the republic is less than the average for Russia and North Caucasus Federal District.
Despite the fact that the housing stock of the RD 2010 grew more rapidly than in Russia as a whole and in the NCFD, by the beginning 2021 The average number of people per person in the Republic of Dagestan 20,0 square meters. m. at the average Russian value 26,9 sq. m; proportion of dilapidated and emergency housing stock – 18,9% (3 place among the subjects of the Russian Federation). The share of the total area of the housing stock of the republic, which is simultaneously equipped with water supply, sanitation (channelization), heating, hot water supply, gas or floor electric stoves is 45,4% (Russian Federation – 69,5%), Including the city – 82,7% (Russian Federation – 80,6%), Rural – 17,1% (Russian Federation – 37,5%).
36
In the rating of housing affordability among the subjects of the Russian Federation at the beginning 2020The Republic took 80 place: minimum number of years required for family to accumulate per quarter – 13,8; The cost of the apartment with total area 60 sq. m at the beginning 2020St Petersburg – 2,9 million rubles. President of Russia V.V. Putin 15 April 2021 At a joint meeting of the State Council Presidium and the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI), he called improving the quality of life of people the main thing in the national development goals. RIA Rating for a long time conducts calculations of rating points of quality of life in the subjects of the Russian Federation on the basis of integrated accounting of the order 70 indicators that record the actual situation of the population and the situation in the social sphere of regions. These points are general assessments of interregional differences in the quality of life of the population and relevant criteria for ranking regions.
Dynamics of rating points for 2012-2020gg in the Republic of Dagestan
Table 1.2.14.
Table 1.2.14. Dynamics of rating points of quality of life in the Republic of Dagestan 2012-2020according to RIA Rating6)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
The place of RD among the subjects of the Russian Federation 72 When summarizing information on quality of life indicators in the Republic of Dagestan based on their gradation by 4 groups - leading positions, positions above the average, below the average and outsider positions - the following groups of corresponding indicators are obtained:
73
73
71
73
64
68
56
69
Table 1.2.15. Positioning of RD in the socio-economic space
the Russian Federation in 2020 on indicators of quality of life of the population
Indicators
Nr. p/p
1
2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9
I. Leading positions (1–21) Life expectancy at birth Proportion of population systematically engaged in physical education and sports Average hospital bed employment per year Turnover of public catering per inhabitant Mortality of the population in working age Mortality of the population from external causes per capita 100000 Number of crimes in 10000 Number of victims - individuals, people on 10000 Natural increase (decrease) in population 1000 man. Population Number of students in general education organizations 100 Teachers
10 11 Share of profitable enterprises 12 Number of gas stations on 1000 km of highways
Number of victims in the 100000 Units of road transport 13 14 Climate assessment
Place by indicator among the subjects of the Russian Federation
2
2 3 3 3 3 3
3 4
4 4 5
7 9
6 See https://ria.ru/20210215/kachestvo-zhizni-1597462656.html?in=t.
37
15 Population change in three years
Share of public roads of regional or inter-municipal and local importance that meet the requirements
16 17 Perinatal mortality rate
18
19
Share of emergency housing stock in the total area of housing stock Share of utility networks (water, sewerage and heat and steam networks) in need of replacement, in total length Total turnover of small and micro enterprises, as well as individual entrepreneurs
20 21 Physician load, number of visits per physician 22 Density of public roads
Emissions of pollutants from stationary and mobile sources per unit area of populated areas
23
II. Positions above average (22–42)
24 Total investment in fixed assets
Number of injuries, poisonings and some other consequences of external causes 1000 Total investment in fixed assets of small and medium enterprises, as well as individual entrepreneurs 15 The ratio of monetary incomes of the population to the cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services The proportion of public roads with a solid coating in the total length Number of children in preschool educational organizations 100 Pedagogical workers
25
26
27
28
29
30
III. Positions below average (43–63)
31 Absolute volume of production of goods and services 32 Retail turnover per capita 33
Incidence of 1000 Total number of seats in the auditoriums of the Ministry of Culture of Russia 100 Thousands of inhabitants
34 35 Proportion of population with incomes below the subsistence minimum 36 Investment in fixed assets per inhabitant 37 Density of public railway tracks 38 Number of doctors in 100 Thousands of people
Fixed-capital investment by small enterprises, microenterprises and sole traders per resident; the share of the population aged 15 and over without basic general education; the share of the total population supplied with drinking water that meets safety requirements; the ratio of the monetary income of the lowest-income 20% of the population to the cost of a fixed basket of consumer goods and services.
39
40
41
42
10
10 15
15
17
18 20 20
21
24
24
25
33
37
37
41
47 47 48
52 53 54 54 56
57
58
61
62
38
43
44
Proportion of ambulance teams arriving at the call point within 20 minutes
IV. Outsider Positions (64–85)
Turnover of small and micro enterprises and individual entrepreneurs per capita Number of average medical personnel per 100 thousand people
45 46 Average time of job search 47 Share of modern retail space in the total sales area 48 Number of theater viewers per 1000 inhabitants
49
Proportion of students and students systematically engaged in physical culture and sports Proportion of housing stock provided with all types of improvement, in total housing stock Costs of protection of atmospheric air per unit of emissions
50 51 52 Hospital beds
Proportion of ambulance crews arriving at the scene of an accident within 20 minutes
53 54 Production of goods and services per capita
Total housing area per inhabitant, average
55 56 Infant mortality
Share of own revenues in the total revenues of the consolidated budget 57 58 Unemployment rate
Proportion of population seeking more than 3 months of employment
59 60 Number of visits to museums per 1000 inhabitants
61
Share of students in state (municipal) general educational organizations engaged in one shift The volume of deposits (deposits) of individuals in banks per capita
62 63 Number of sports facilities for 100 thousand inhabitants 64 Migration increase (decrease) of population
63
65
66 70 74 77
79
79 79 80
80 80
81 81
81 82
82 82
83
83 83 84
66
67
65
84
The level of provision of the population with sports facilities based on the one-time capacity of sports facilities 10 Provision of preschool children with places in preschool educational institutions 100 thousands of people Provision of retail space, sq. m of retail space on 1 Proportion of employed in small business and individual enterprise in the total labour force *Colour marking: 1-21 places - the leading positions in terms of the indicator among a quarter of subjects; 22-42 Positions above the average; 43-63 Positions below average; 64-85 places - positions of the out-of-the-way by the value of the indicator.
84
85
85
85
85
70
68
69
39
According to the table 1.2.15., by 42,9% indicators (30 Indicators from 70), determining the quality of life of the population, the republic occupies positions above the average for the subjects of the Russian Federation, including the 32,9% of them (23 a) is in the leading group of 21 Subject, and by 22,9% (by 16 In the top ten subjects. Po 40 indicators (57,1%), the Republic occupies positions below the average among the subjects of the country, including the 13 (18,6%) – Below average, by 27 (38,6%) – Outsider Positions.
1.2.3. Development of basic sectors of economy.
In the predominantly industrial-agrarian Soviet economy of the region, fundamental changes have occurred in the outcome of market transformations, both in the structure and volume of production of individual sectors of the economy, as well as in their territorial dispersal. As noted earlier, currently the structure of the economy of the Republic of Dagestan is agrarian and polyservice. At the same time, the republic has a fairly diversified and multi-structured eco-nomic environment with a wide range of economic activities, with a high share of the service sector, and positive dynamics of socio-economic indicators in general.
Agro-industrial complex. Production of agricultural products in the Republic of Dagestan for the analyzed period increased in current prices from 45,5 billion rub. in 2009G to G 141,5 billion rub. in 2020g or c 3,1 times (Russia – 2,6 p.) - see Rice. 1.2.11. below.
57,2
63,2
71,9
47,4
83,4
94,5
119,0
124,4
108,5
133,3
141,5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fig.1.2.11. Volumes of agricultural production in 2010-2020gg
according to RD, billion rubles. in current prices.
In the value structure of agricultural production of the republic with a large majority, crop production predominates: during the period production increased from 24,0 billion rub. up to 71,1 billion Ruble (in 2,96 c) animal husbandry, c 23,4 billion rub. up to 70,4 billion Ruble (in 3,0 again). The index of agricultural production in the republic 2010-2020Gov 158,0% Increases over a period of nearly 2 higher than the average for the Russian Federation (129,2%) – Table 1.2.16.
In the structure of the GRP of the Republic, the share of agriculture is more than 15% (Four times higher than the average for the Russian Federation), the fixed assets in the industry are about 7% the main funds of the republic, more work in the industry 20% the Republic's population. Tax revenues are total 0,9% tax revenues of the budget. The indicator of gross agricultural output per capita of the republic reached 45,2 thousand rubles. – 108,1% from the average Russian level (41,8 thousand rubles per person).
According to the data for the year 2019, there are 3 348 thousand hectares of agricultural land in the industry of the republic - 21 place among the subjects of the Russian Federation and 2 place among the subjects of the Russian Federation of the Northern Federal District. Dagestan is a strategically important region of the country for ensuring food security of the Russian Federation. In the inter-regional division of labor within the framework of the NCFD, the agricultural specialization of the republic is clearly visible, some areas in it have a specialization of the country's production value, as well as an export orientation.
40
Table 1.2.16. Index of agricultural production in Russia and RD
2010-2020, % of previous year
0 1 0 2
Russian Federation 8
9 , 7
Republic of Dagestan
9 , 3 0 1
1 1 0 2
3 , 2 2 1
2 , 6 0 1
2 1 0 2
4 , 4 9
1 , 3 0 1
3 1 0 2
1 , 5 0 1
8 , 5 0 1
4 1 0 2
1 , 4 0 1
2 , 8 0 1
5 1 0 2
1 , 2 0 1
1 , 5 0 1
6 1 0 2
8 , 4 0 1
8 , 5 0 1
7 1 0 2
9 , 2 0 1
7 , 5 0 1
8 1 0 2
8 , 9 9
1 , 1 0 1
9 1 0 2
3 , 4 0 1
7 , 0 0 1
0 2 0 2
5 , 1 0 1
4 , 1 0 1
2010-2020Yyyyyyyy, % to previous year
129,2
158,0
The specificity of the territorial organization of agriculture is that it is dispersed throughout the republic, but the main production of agricultural products falls on the mountain (taking into account the plain "cutanes" of mining farms) and the central zone of Dagestan.
The main specialization of agriculture in the region in the Russian Federation is livestock breeding (including cows), MRS (sheep and goats), poultry, with the production of basic food products: meat, milk, eggs. A significant place in the industry is occupied by cattle breeding, which plays a large role in the organization of the territory: both in the mountainous terrain and on the plane. Crop production and production of related food products also occupies a strong position in the agricultural production of the public: among them are grain and technical crops, fruits and berries, grapes, vegetables and melons, potatoes.
According to a whole group of indicators of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic takes the leading position not
only in the Northern Federal District, but also in the Russian Federation - Table 1.2.17.
Table 1.2.17. Place of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Dagestan in the Russian Federation and the North-Eastern Federal District
Place in
1 1 2 2 1 1 2
Name of indicators
Share, in % in RF SKFO RF SKFO 31,44 2,14 34,68 4,64 26,93 2,25 27,38 1,51 5,25 45,61 20,55 55,89 24,0 1,69
12 2 14 21 2 1 20
Number of population Number of rural population Gross agricultural production at current prices Area of farmland Population of sheep and goats Livestock and poultry for slaughter (in live weight) Production in physical terms: Vegetable Grapes of fruits and berries of meat of cattle and poultry Milk Eggs Wool grain (in weight after processing) seeds of sunflower fruit-bearing fruit-bearing fruit-bearing fruit-bearing area
1 1 2 2 1 2 1 5 4 1 1 1 Color marking: leading positions in terms of indicator among a quarter of subjects; positions above the average indicator; positions below the average indicator.
10,15 58,63 28,50 77,28 24,62 4,95 21,33 1,39 33,89 2,91 0,54 15,6 26,14 59,88 4,64 0,32 1,98 0,06 35,02 1,82 5,77 43,22 26,27 73,81
1 2 3 23 7 43 1 44 29 18 2 2
41
In Dagestan, production and yield of the main types of crop production are growing, work is underway to create modern seed farms for the production of high-quality seed material that meets modern requirements.
However, in agriculture RD remains a complex of development problems, including acute problems. The main contradiction is that the level of development of agricultural production of the republic is not adequate to the agricultural territory and does not provide the basic food needs of the population of the region, supply to foreign markets, the creation of new modern production and jobs.
Compared to 2010, the average annual number of employees in the industry has decreased by more than 25 thousand people, the needs of the population of the region for food (except for vegetables and potatoes) are not met, exports are low, and the development of the food and processing industry is very weak.
A characteristic feature of the agro-industrial complex of RD is the small size of the contours of agricultural areas in general, as well as arable land and fodder of economic entities, dominant small and small producers in the structure of production of the industry. Dynamics of structure of production of agriculture for the period by categories of farms of the republic is presented in Table 1.2.18.
Table 1.2.18. Production of agricultural products by categories of farms by RD in 2010-2020, as a percentage of the volume of production in the republic.
Agricultural organizations
2010 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020
Agricultural products including: Livestock
8,9
12,7 12,1 12,5 13,0
13,6
9,9 7,9
10,9 10,0 9,5 10,2 14,3 14,0 15,3 15,9
11,4 15,8
Households
Agricultural products including: Livestock
81,1 75,8 76,4 78,7 78,6
77,5
81,1 87,1 87,2 88,4 87,1 81,2 65,8 66,4 69,5 69,7
85,1 69,8
Peasant (farm) farms*
Agricultural products including: Livestock
10,0 11,5 11,5 8,8
8,4
8,9
2,0
2,6 2,7 9,0 11,0 19,9 19,6 15,2 14,5
2,2
3,6 14,4
* - taking into account individual entrepreneurs
The table is a clear expression of the small-scale agricultural production of the republic, especially crop production - the population farms produce more than 85% products of the sub-industry (potatoes, vegetables and fruits 96-99%). This is confirmed by comparisons of the production of the main types of agricultural products in the households of the population of the republic, neighboring regions, as well as in the country as a whole. Figure 1.2.12 below.
42
Russian Federation
Krasnodar region
Stavropol Krai
Republic of Dagestan
1
,
9 9
3
,
6 9
4
,
2 7
7
,
5 6
6
,
9 3
1
,
9 5
7
,
1 5
,
1 7 3
1
,
4 2
5
,
7 2
1
,
7 1
1
,
6 1
9
,
5 6
1
,
6 6
3
,
1 7
9
,
5 6
4
,
7 3
9
,
5 2
5
,
0 4
%
3
,
8 1
C A R T O F E L )
O V O I
M J S S S K O T I P T I C .
M O L O K O
J T A
Rice.1.3.12. The share of LPH in the production of basic agricultural products in the Republic of Dagestan, Krasnodar and Stavropol Krai, the Russian Federation in 2019 g., %. There are practically no large vertically integrated agricultural organizations in the republic, cooperation in the production, storage, processing and sale of industry products is poorly developed. More 100 thousands of hectares of arable land, which are the most scarce (in the republic their per capita 5 less than the average for the Russian Federation), remain outside the agricultural turnover. The main reason for this situation is the unresolved issues of land use, outdated technical and technological base of the entire industry. For example, the availability of crop production of the republic does not exceed the energy capacity 30%, Soil Processing Machinery and Plant Protection Machinery – 20%, Feed Harvesting Machines – 50%, Grain Harvesters – 75%, Rice Harvesters – 24%. In farms there is practically no machinery for fertilizer and machinery for carrying out reclamation work, the level of mechanization of livestock farms is extremely low 5–10%. In general, the agriculture of the republic does not melt more 40 Thousands of different agricultural and reclamation machines for a total amount of more than 36 billion Rubles, including some 6,0 Thousands of tractors and 500 ed. grain-forage harvesters. This situation leads to significant excess loads on machinery and equipment of the industry, crop losses, growth of cost-bridges and decrease in the competitiveness of products.
Among the current problems in the development of agriculture of the republic should be
also highlight:
- low level of value added generated and, accordingly, investment
attractiveness of the industry;
- Weak level of modernization and innovative development; - decrease in soil fertility due to poor condition as inter-farm
Having both an indoor and outdoor irrigation network;
- the need to provide the industry with its own seeds; - the need to provide the industry with high-quality feed; - a low proportion of breeding livestock in the general population; - a decrease in the level of management and unsatisfactory staffing; - problems of cattle breeding and livestock grazing lands (HZH); - the need to restore Black lands and Kizlyar pastures, restore
soil fertility and productivity of natural pastures;
- problems of revival of terrace farming in mountain areas, repair and restoration of
development of land reclamation systems throughout the country.
43
Unresolved land use issues limit development and reduce the attractiveness of investment in agriculture. The problem of lending to small and medium-sized agricultural producers is very important for the solution. Especially acute is the issue of short-term lending - for the period of sowing and harvesting. Credit cooperatives have hardly been developed in Dhaka. The infrastructure of the agro-industrial complex is poorly developed: it is estimated that no more than 5% vegetables and 15% meat and dairy products are processed in the Republic. The lack of storage facilities and the underdeveloped system of pre-sale preparation of products deprives manufacturers of the opportunity to store high-quality products in demand in the markets of the country, and then bring it to consumers in proper condition. The issues of consulting and information support of producers in investment and infrastructure issues are acute. Ensuring the integrated development of rural areas is an important task.
Fishing and fish farming: in the analyzed period, positive dynamics was observed in the volume of production of aquatic biological resources in the Caspian Sea and inland waters of the republic as a whole. V 2016 The year was caught in the Republic 4,7 Thousands of tons of fish, and the results 2020 Production has increased to 22,3 thousand tons. At the same time, fishing-former enterprises of the Republic of Dagestan have the right to extract annually the order 147 Thousands of tons of fish 100 Thousands of tons of Caspian pegs, 45 thousands of tons of so-called non-quota species and 2 thousand tons of valuable species (sledding, pike, oxen, bream, catfish).
The total number of people involved in 2020the Fisheries Industry of the Republic 845 million rubles. The fishing fleet of fishing organizations of the republic 22 Ships that work 176 crew members. In the Caspian Sea, at the suggestion of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, changes have been made to the fishing prairie (Order of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation 6 November 2018 № 511), What allowed in 2019 to expand the fishing area in the southern part of the Republic of Dagestan, where fishing can now be carried out almost all year round, except for the forbidden spawning periods.
In order to reduce the volume of unaccounted fishing and poaching during the implementation of fishing in the Caspian Sea, the Government of the Republic of Dagestan adopted Resolution No. 31 January 2019 of 12 "On the determination of places of unloading of catch of aquatic biological resources extracted (catched) during the implementation of coastal fishing, fishing and other products produced from such catch". The essence of this decree is a 3-fold reduction in the number of places of unloading of catches.
However, the official volume of production of valuable fish species in the republic after the adoption of the resolution decreased, although the heads of fishing enterprises show that in fact they develop their quota in two weeks. Therefore, there is reason to believe that more fish are actually caught in the territory of the Republic of Dagestan than indicated in official statistics.
To bring the industry to a serious level of production of fish products, it is necessary to create conditions for industrial trout and sturgeon farming, further accelerated development of the material and technical base for fishing in the sea, its acceptance on the shore, storage and processing (the creation of a diversified network of coastal facilities, the commissioning of storage facilities for products, its primary and deep processing).
Industry. Index of industrial production in the republic 2010- 2020Gov 172,2% (the Russian Federation – 131,2%, the Russian Federation NCFD – 146,2%) – Table 1.2.19.
44
Table 1.2.19. Industrial production index7 for Russia, North Caucasus Federal District and RD in 2010-2020, in % compared to the previous year
Russian Federation
North Caucasus Federal District
Republic of Dagestan
0 1 0 2
3 , 7 0 1
4 , 3 0 1
2 , 1 9
1 1 0 2
0 , 5 0 1
8 , 9 0 1
3 , 2 9
2 1 0 2
4 , 3 0 1
3 , 6 0 1
4 , 0 0 1
3 1 0 2
4 , 0 0 1
2 , 6 0 1
0 , 4 5 1
4 1 0 2
7 , 1 0 1
4 , 0 0 1
7 , 0 0 1
5 1 0 2
2 , 0 0 1
6 , 4 0 1
0 , 1 0 1
6 1 0 2
8 , 1 0 1
7 , 3 0 1
6 , 6 1 1
7 1 0 2
7 , 3 0 1
9 , 0 0 1
2 , 3 0 1
8 1 0 2
5 , 3 0 1
3 , 5 9
8 , 4 9
9 1 0 2
4 , 3 0 1
3 , 2 0 1
1 , 9 0 1
0 2 0 2
4 , 7 9
5 , 6 0 1
5 , 4 0 1
2010 -2020, %
131,2
146,2
172,2
Despite the uneven development of the republic’s industry in the period, only the Republic of Ingushetia is ahead of Dagestan in the general industry development index in the North Caucasus Federal District. In the structure of GRP RD, the share of industry in 2019 Imprint 6,75%, including: mining 0,5%, Manufacturing Industry 4,7%, electric energy, gas and steam, air conditioning 1,45%, c) additional supply, water disposal, organization of collection and disposal of waste, pollution elimination activities 0,1%.
Aggregated share of industrial activities in the structure of fixed assets of the republic is 12,03%, including: mining 0,64%, Manufacturing Industry 6,91%, provision of electrical energy, gas and steam, air conditioning 4,12%, Water supply, sanitation, waste management, pollution management 0,36%.
The average annual number of employees employed in the industry of the republic was 8,7% population of the Republic, including: mining 0,5%, Manufacturing Industry 6,8%, provision of electric energy, gas and steam, air conditioning 0,9%, Water supply, sanitation, waste management, pollution management 0,5%.
Revenues to the budget system for the industry as a whole 29,17%, including: mining 3,0%, processing production 16,8%, provision of electricity, gas and steam, air conditioning 6,95%, water supply, sanitation, waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination 2,42%.
Over the years of market reforms, industrial production in the republic has significantly decreased, and the structure of industrial production has been significantly trans-formed: if earlier the main share in it was the extractive industry, engineering products, food industry and the construction materials industry, then now more 53% food and drink production, more 14% Production of other non-metallic mineral products, 9,5% production of machinery and equipment not included in other groups, production of other vehicles and equipment, 7% production of computers, electronic and optical products, electrical equipment, more 6% production of furniture, other finished products, 3,7% production of coke and petroleum products, rubber and plastic products, 1,9% repair and installation of machines and equipment, 1,6% production of metallurgical, finished metal products, except machinery and equipment, 1,3% textiles, clothing, leather.
7 Aggregated index of production by types of economic activity "Mining of minerals", "Processing industries", "Electric energy, gas and gas supply; air conditioning", "Water supply; water disposal, organization of waste collection and disposal, pollution elimination activities".
45
Thus, the structure of the industry continues to adapt to market realities, preserving and developing those areas of production that are competitive in modern conditions, have state support, including in the form of a defense order, focused on the use of raw materials and materials mainly local production. Most likely, this trend will continue in the coming years, given the sharp increase in the cost of raw materials, materials and aggregates in 2021, as well as the widespread deployment of strict requirements of the “green economy” in the world.
the Industrial Complex of the Region 2020Goods of own production were shipped, works and services were performed on 66,5 billion Rubles (Growth in relation to 2010 the Year 2,0 In addition, including: mining – 4033 million rubles. (53 place among the subjects of the Russian Federation); processing production – 43146 million rubles. (69 place); electric energy, gas and steam, air conditioning – 17487 million rubles. (65 place); water supply, water disposal, organization of collection and disposal of waste, pollution elimination activities – 1830 million rubles. (69 Place).
In general, the average annual capacity of the industry organizations is currently used: mining of other minerals in 18-25% (In recent years, it has decreased by 3,5-19 b) food production, mainly 15-30% (The C-Cut 25-40 points), and bakery products and butter on 74-82% (increased on 3,5-14 production of soft drinks more 74 % (The C-Cut 3,5-5%); production of chemicals and chemical products (fossil fertilizers) is stable 50%; production of rubber and plastic products 55% (Decline in 16%); Production of other non-metallic mineral products 7-36% (Mainly growth in 6%); Manufacture of machinery and equipment not included in other groupings 7-60% (Mainly growth in 2-20%, Production of elevators decreased to 30% Power).
In the republic there are large industrial productions of machine-building.
The complex:
Dagdizel, JSC (Caspian) - enterprise of shipbuilding industry, specialization of production on marine underwater equipment of special purpose; Fiberglass Plant, AO (Mr. Makhachkala) - specializes in the production of ma-
fiberglass-based materials;
Hajiyev Plant, JSC - production of pumping equipment, general production
thinking and oil and gas valves;
KEMZ Concern, JSC - specializes in the production of other transport
facilities and equipment;
Buynak aggregate plant, JSC - specializes in the production of products
civil and defence purposes;
Caspian Precision Mechanics Plant, JSC is one of the largest industrial enterprises of the Republic of Dagestan and the Russian Federation, specialized in the manufacture of navigation systems, power systems, various devices and controls for the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and customers for inter-factory cooperation, etc.
10 defence industry enterprises operate in the Republic of Dagestan. Some produce unique products and participate in programmes to develop the sector. For example, Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade decided to allocate 1.9 billion roubles for a comprehensive modernisation of the Dagdizel plant under the modernisation programme for the MPO–Gidropribor concern. One of the region’s leading and largest defence enterprises, OJSC Concern KEMZ, has developed and is implementing its own strategy for the development and production of high-technology civilian products for the aviation and automotive industries.
The company currently has high-tech...
production units in G. Caspian and G. Moscow also has:
46
- modern high-tech equipment of world level in all technical areas, ranging from foundry to modern paint and varnish coatings;
- modern training and technical center (UTC) (the only one in the NCFD) for training and advanced training of specialists for work on modern equipment.
Industrial production of the Republic is characterized by a high level of concentration and localization. The main production and economic indicators for the industry as a whole provide 8-10 of the largest industrial enterprises of the republic, in particular, more than 85% of all tax revenues of the industry to the budget of the region, about 75% of the total revenue of the industry.
The specifics of the territorial organization of the economy is its increased concentration in the Central and Northern zones of the Republic - in the most developed and urbanized part of the territory, and reduced - in the territory of South Dagestan. The mining industry of the Republic is relatively poorly developed, although the potential for the development of energy (including renewable energy) and the food industry is very high, which has been very poorly used for decades. In the context of increasing economic development needs and the deficit of these capacities in the territory of the republic, such a policy is short-sighted.
In particular, therefore, the industry of the Republic of Dagestan until recently was not an investment priority of the region - from year to year, the volume of investments in the fixed capital of organizations of this branch of the republic's economy is more than an order of magnitude less, for example, than in the Stavropol Territory. The dynamics of industrial production of the Republic of Dagestan is ensured by limited own funds of enterprises and the receipt of state defense orders by leading enterprises of the defense industry located in the Makhachkala agglomeration.
In general, the problem of low investment attractiveness of the Republic is the most important limiting factor for the industry of the Republic, since it does not allow attracting credit and financial resources for the implementation of significant projects for the region. In particular, therefore, the industry of the Republic of Dagestan mainly develops outside the main world technological trends, with the exception of single industries (for example, Concern KEMZ).
The problems of the region’s industry are also the lack of qualified personnel, the low level of support of the domestic producer from the federal authorities, the priority of the domestic supplier of products at state procurements, etc. At the same time, the region has great potential for training highly qualified personnel necessary for the development of high-tech industries, the development of the digital economy, and new managers.
Construction. The volume of work performed by the type of activity "Construction, in current prices for the period increased from 53,6 billion rub. in 2009 G to G 181,0 billion rub. in 2020 g or c 3,38 times (Russia – 2,38 r., SKFO – 3,43 p.). At comparable prices, it is 2010-2020Mt D increased 212,8% – see Table 1.2.20.
face 1.2.20. Dynamics of the volume of work performed by type of activity
"Construction" on RD in 2010-2020gg, in % to the previous year
The volume of work performed in the current prices, billion rub.
0 1 0 2
1 1 0 2
2 1 0 2
3 1 0 2
4 1 0 2
5 1 0 2
6 1 0 2
7 1 0 2
8 1 0 2
9 1 0 2
0 2 0 2
2 2 , 0 6
6 3 , 8 6
2 7 , 5 7
1 4 , 8 8
0 , 6 0 1
9 , 3 2 1
4 , 3 3 1
1 , 3 5 1
1 , 5 3 1
3 , 0 7 1
0 , 1 8 1
2010- 2020, in %
338
47
Index of the volume of work performed, in % to the previous year
1 , 3 3 1
1 , 4 0 1
2 , 8 0 1
6 , 8 0 1
1 , 9 0 1
6 , 6 0 1
0 , 4 0 1
2 , 8 0 1
5 , 6 8
9 , 5 1 1
6 , 9 9
212,8
“Construction” is the third most important type of economic activity in Dhaka. Share of the industry in the economy of the republic: in the total volume of GRP – 15,5%, in fixed assets – 1,76%, Average annual number of employees – 12,8%, Tax and non-tax revenues of the budget system – 6,95%.
Despite the drop in the volume of work performed in the construction industry in 2018g (index to previous year 86,5) and 2020St Petersburg (99,6%), Currently, the Republic is almost 2% of the total volume of construction and installation works of the country (12 place among the subjects of the Russian Federation) and more 40% of their shares in the FSA (1 place). The productivity of labor in construction exceeds the productivity of the entire employed population in the republic on average 3,2 once. This is facilitated by the structure of the fixed assets of the industry: in the cost of fixed assets of the organizations of the industry, machinery and equipment, as well as vehicles, are 87,2%.
V 2017-2020The construction complex of the republic is provided with the commissioning of more 18,2 Thousands of buildings with total area 6720,6 thousand square meters, including residential purposes – 17,8 Thousands of square 5956,4 thousand sq. m, non-residential purposes – 0,4 thousand total area 764,2 thousand sq. m. The share of unfinished construction in the RD is within the 7 % of the total number of commissioned buildings and structures, which is not a high indicator in comparison with the all-Russian and average in the NCFD corresponding indicators. However, an accelerated solution to the problem of unfinished construction is quite relevant for the republic.
Housing construction in the Republic of Dagestan decreased from 1123,8 you. sq. m in 2010G to G 967,9 thousand sq. m in 2020 G or on 13,9%. In terms of the total volume of housing for the year, the republic ranks second among the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District after the Stavropol Territory and 30 place in the country among the subjects of the Russian Federation. According to the indicator of housing construction 1City Hall – 0,311 sq. m region 6 place in the NCFD and 71 place by country.
It should be noted the active growth over the period of the number of construction organizations (sub-row construction organizations, enterprises of the industry of construction materials and structures, etc 3608 to 4195 or on 116,3%, and strengthening their technical and material base: over the past four years 26,5 billion Ruble of investments in fixed assets. More 80 % All enterprises and organizations are concentrated in the capital of the republic - the city of Makhachkala. The share of private construction companies is about 85% The construction volume, in state and municipal ownership is 5%, and in private-mixed ownership – 10%. The vast majority of construction companies belong to small businesses, and only about 1,5% They are medium and large, have financial, material and technical capabilities for the construction of large construction projects, including in industrial construction.
The building materials industry is geared to the demands of the local construction base. The industry is represented by 90 enterprises, of which about 25 are medium and large. In the republic, sand, lime, clay, stone, gravel, gravel are mined; ceramic brick, silicate, concrete and ceramic blocks, ceramic tiles, reinforced concrete structures are mined. The production of plastic windows and two-rays, fillers for facing walls and ceilings, double-glazed windows, tinted, grain glass, there are capacities for the production of plastic pipes and glass insulation. In the construction materials industry, the share of non-state ownership reached 95%. However, the technological level at most enterprises is low and does not provide the necessary level of quality and expansion of production supplies not only outside the region, but also to the Dagestani market.
48
Large plants have significantly reduced the production of precast concrete
constructions, increasing the production of monolithic concrete and small wall blocks.
Construction design is emerging from the crisis. Due to the rapid pace of construction, the number of orders for design from large design organizations of the republic is increasing (State Enterprise "Dagestancivilproekt", PI "Dagesta-nagropromproekt"). At the same time, the level of implementation of investment plans of the republic for the period and the inability to develop the construction complex of the republic of significant amounts of investment, including from the federal budget, indicates the need for further development of the construction base of the republic with the creation of large construction organizations and enterprises of building materials. This is also indicated by the statistics of the state of the fixed assets of the industry - 52-74% machines and mechanical organizations with expired service life.
There are a number of factors that limit the speed and
competitiveness of the construction complex. These include:
- Investment unattractiveness of the republic due to significant corruption canopy, lack of guarantees for bringing investment projects to a logical completion and return on investment, low level of compliance with laws, due to the pressure of the control and supervision bodies, unresolved land and property issues, etc. The unfavorable investment climate in Dagestan is also formed due to the subsidization of the republic's budget, incomplete and (or) non-rhythmic development of funds allocated for the implementation of republican and municipal investment programs, which in aggregate hinders the activities and development of the construction complex;
- Inadequacy of educational institutions of vocational education for the preparation of qualified personnel of construction specialties and scientific and technical base capable of solving the problems of the construction industry with skill and quality.
External constraints include: - external supplies at monopolistically high prices of petroleum products, timber -
fishing, binders and metal for the construction complex;
- imperfection of the legislative framework for ensuring effective investment activities. In the Russian law on foreign investment, many articles are made by the need to comply with the national security of Russia and, due to the vagueness of the wording, giving rise to bureaucratic arbitrariness in suppressing the initiative of investors. This also includes the restrictions established by the budget legislation of Russia in relation to the attraction of municipal entities of highly subsidized regions of funds of credit institutions.
A lot of problems stem from the imperfection of the federal legislative framework in the field of construction, as well as from the activities of one-day firms that, participating in tenders and biddings, receive construction contracts, unjustifiably cutting prices, not paying taxes, thereby violating the competitive conditions for companies that work within the law.
At the same time, in recent years, external demand for materials from local raw materials of non-metallic minerals has been growing. These are mainly cladding tiles made of wild stone, non-metallic quarry materials. In general, the resource and raw material conditions of the pre-production of non-metallic minerals in Dagestan in the future allow the development of the construction materials industry in significant volumes and in a wide range. For the development of the construction industry of the republic, it is necessary to create conditions for increasing the investment attractiveness of the republic by improving the federal, regional and sectoral regulatory framework, by eliminating investment risks in the region, by stimulating external and internal investors. It is also necessary to strengthen the educational and scientific base for the training of qualified personnel for the construction industry.
49
The main problems of the construction industry of the republic: - decrease in the growth rate of the volume of work; - decrease in investments in the modernization of the construction industry; - decrease in the growth rate of housing construction; - shortage of qualified personnel; - extremely low level of innovation activity in the industry. Causes of the situation: - reduction of real incomes of the population as a result of inflation, sharp
reduction of demand for residential real estate;
- high mortgage rates; - high rates on bank loans; - high level of taxes; - lack of -
exact amount of investment;
- low demand for contract work; - weak solvency of customers; - growth of inflation expectations, including due to higher fuel prices
resources and VAT rate increases;
- innovations in legislation and taxation. Recommendations for improving the situation in the construction of the region: - adoption of comprehensive measures of concessional lending to small enterprises that
constitute a numerical majority in the construction industry;
- renewal of fixed assets of companies working in construction; - development of production of high-quality, including innovative, construction
materials;
- renewal and improvement of the mortgage subsidy mechanism; - increase in the volume of financing of construction projects at the expense of funds of the Fund;
regional and regional budgets;
- introduction of tax breaks for enterprises of the industry; - stimulation of innovative activity of construction enterprises; - development of infrastructure, improvement of the existing system in construction;
the region's sector;
- improving the investment attractiveness of the region and attracting funds from private investors in the implementation of various projects; - development and improvement of public-private partnership (PPP) mechanisms.
Transport and logistics. The Republic is at the junction of many international routes and connects the transport flows "North - South" and "East - West", so the republic is one of the few regions of the Russian Federation, where almost all types of transport have developed: rail, road, sea, air, pipeline, as well as transport hubs, a network of intermodal and multi-modal transport and logistics complexes.
In the structure of the GRP of the Republic, the share of the type of economic activity "Transportation and storage" in the 2019G G 5,3% (Russian Federation – 7,3%, SKFO – 5,2%). The industry’s core funds are higher 25% Total fixed assets of the Republic at full cost – 2 place after fixed assets in the housing sector (FEA "Real Estate Operations"). They almost work here 6% the employed population of the republic, and tax revenues to the budget system are 5,1% of the Republic ' s income.
Despite the complication of 2016 g) opportunities to compare sectoral data for the period due to changes in the methods of their statistical accounting by types of economic activity, it can be noted that the overall performance of the industry as a whole has deteriorated - its share in the GRP has decreased compared to 2010G - on 4 paragraph a c 2005d) more than twice.
50
This situation is mainly due to the deterioration in the performance of road and rail transport. It should also be noted that the components of the transport and logistics system have not yet formed a single complex, especially with regard to logistics and interaction with the territory’s trading system. The priority development of motor transport and road infrastructure in the republic is facilitated by its location, natural landscape conditions and the existing network of highways of federal and republican significance. It plays a particularly important role in the development of the mountainous regions of Dagestan. Federal roads of international importance Route R pass through Dagestan Republic217 (M M – 29) "Caucasus" (direction "Baku-Makhachkala-Moscow"), AD "Kochubey-Neftekumsk-Minvody", AD-153 "Astrakhan-Caspian-Kochubey - Kizlyar - Makhachkala" and 43-x av-thorozh of republican and local importance.
The length of public roads in the Republic of Dagestan is currently 29 thousand km (s 2012g also takes into account the length of the street network of the horn, of which 21,2 km of roads (73,1%) They have a hard cover. According to these indicators, the Republic is 1 places among the subjects of the Russian Federation SKFO, significantly ahead of the Stav-Ropol region. Of the total length of roads from public use with a hard cover in the Republic of Dagestan 0,64 Thousands of miles of federal roads, 7,4 thousands of miles of national importance, and 13,1 thousands of km of local importance - Table 1.2.21. Public road density for 1000 The area of the territory is 561,8 Kilometers On the horns of public use located 1237 The bridge is longer 32 Thousands of meters.
The dynamics of the development of the road network of the republic for the period is presented below in
Table:
Table 1.2.21. Development of roads RD in 2010-2020, thousand km.
2012 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020v % to 2012
The length of the automobile horn of public use (at the end of the year)* - the total length of the automobile horn of public use with a hard surface - in total including: federal significance of the republican value of local significance The length of the automobile horn of public use with an improved surface * From 2012 g includes a street network.
24,2
18,7
0,64 7,1 11,0
26,0 27,7
28,0 28,7
29,0 119,8
20,0 20,6
21,0 21,5
21,2 113,4
0,64 0,64 7,1 7,3 12,2 12,7
0,64 0,64 7,3 7,4 13,0 13,5
0,64 100,0 7,4 104,2 13,1 119,1
8,4
7,9
8,3
8,8
8,6
8,9
106,0
Dynamics of the proportion of roads with solid and improved surface
shown in Table 1.2.22.
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Table 1.2.22. Proportion of roads with solid and improved road
Covering the length of public roads
in 2012-2020gg for RD, NCFD and RF, in %
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Specific gravity of paved roads Russian Federation 72,4 70,6 70,5 70,6 70,3 70,6 70,4 70,6 70,6 North Caucasus Federal District Republic of Dagestan
77,7 77,8 78,3 78,7 78,0 78,2 78,5 79,4 79,0 77,2 78,8 78,5 76,9 74,6 74,5 74,8 75,0 73,1
Specificity of roads with improved coverage Russian Federation 63,3 62,7 62,4 62,3 62,3 62,4 62,1 62,0 62,2 North Caucasus Federal District Republic of Dagestan
51,6 50,9 50,3 49,1 49,4 49,5 50,0 49,4 50,2 45,1 42,4 41,2 39,4 40,1 40,1 41,9 39,9 41,9
Compared to 2012g The share of paved roads in the total length of public roads in the republic during the period decreased from 77,2% to 73,1% (the Russian Federation - s 72,4% to 70,6%) – The inclusion of c 2012 g Street network in the total length of roads. In general, the situation in the NCFD is better - the indicator has increased with 77,7% to 79,0%.
The situation in the Republic has worsened compared to 2012g and with a specific weight of a horn with an improved coating - the corresponding indicator for the period of sleep with 45,1% to 41,9% (the Russian Federation - with 63,3% to 62,2%, SKFO - s 51,6% to 50,2%). In terms of the proportion of roads with improved coverage in the length of motor roads with solid surface of public use, the republic lags significantly behind both the average Russian level and the average level in the North Caucasus Federal District.
In terms of density of public roads of federal, regional or inter-municipal and local importance with a hard surface, the Republic of Dagestan exceeds the average Russian indicator by 6,6 times, and the average for the Northern Federal District by 1% - Table 1.2.23.
Table 1.2.23. Density of public roads with hard surface
federal, regional or inter-municipal and local significance in 2012- 2020by RD, SKFO and RF (at the end of the year; km of roads on 1000 Kilomile2 Territory)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Russian Federation 54 North Caucasus Federal District Republic of Dagestan
348 371
58
60
61
62
62
63
64
64
367 370
374 370
392 397
393 396
401 410
407 417
417 427
418 421
The share of dirt and gravel roads (mainly local and inter-municipal) is high in the structure of the territorial roads of the RD, serviced by the GKU Dagavtodor. This is a large-scale problem that significantly complicates the development of villages and district centers. In addition, more than 40% of local roads do not meet the regulatory requirements.
JSC "Makhachkala Commercial Sea Port" is the only Russian port on the Caspian Sea. Railways and highways connect it with the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The main activities are loading and unloading and oil transshipment.
Mahachkala International Airport is the oldest and, at the moment, one of the largest airports in the world.
State-owned airline in Dagestan.
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The capacity of the terminal building on domestic flights is 200 passengers per hour. Construction of a new international terminal with a total area of over 8000 m2 with capacity 190 Pass-fats per hour. They arrive and fly around the year 10 900 Aircraft. By results 2019 The number of passengers served during the year 1,3 Millions of people who 21 % More compared to 2017 Year. After the reconstruction of the runway, the Makhachkala airfield (Uytash) can accept aircraft of the Airbus type 330, Boeing 767 and index below.
The Makhachkala branch of the SKZhD deployed railway line 1227,5 km, operational length of main tracks – 509 km (not changed during the period). The main activity of the Makhachkala branch of the North Caucasus Railway is the transportation of passengers and goods. The main railway line passes through the territory of the republic, part of the North Caucasus Railway, which is part of the international North-South transport corridor. In the south of the republic there is a border crossing "Samur" with the Republic of Azerbaijan. Currently, the capacity of the line significantly exceeds the existing cargo and passenger traffic. The prospects for the growth of the cargo traffic, primarily with the transit of goods to and from Iran, which will be possible after the connection of the railway infrastructure of Iran and Azerbaijan within the Astara-Rasht-Kazvin transport corridor under construction. V 2019 the Iron Horns 1,5 million people (0,09 % the Russian Federation and 14,2 % from the SCFO). According to this indicator, the republic occupied 65place in the country, and 2- the place in the NCFD. V 2019 The railroad was moved around 1,5 million people.
Freight turnover and passenger traffic in the Republic of Dagestan during the analyzed period had a contradictory dynamics - the periods of growth of the corresponding respondents were combined with periods of significant decline - Table 1.2.24.
Table 1.2.24. Freight and passenger traffic on the RD in 2010-2020gg, in % to the previous year.
0 1 0 2
1 , 4 9
1 , 3 8
9 , 5 0 1
1 1 0 2
1 , 0 0 1
8 , 0 8 1
1 , 7 7
2 1 0 2
2 , 3 0 1
3 , 2 8
1 , 6 0 1
3 1 0 2
9 , 8 9
9 , 6 1 1
7 , 4 0 1
4 1 0 2
7 , 5 0 1
0 , 3 0 1
5 1 0 2
0 , 7 0 1
0 , 2 6
7 , 8 7
8 , 7 7
6 1 0 2
1 , 4 0 1
6 , 7 1 1
2 , 8 0 1
7 1 0 2
5 , 4 0 1
5 , 2 1 1
0 , 7 0 1
8 1 0 2
1 , 5 2 1
0 , 6 0 1
5 , 9 1 1
9 1 0 2
1 , 9 6
0 , 1 0 1
0 , 6 1 1
0 2 0 2
1 , 6 2 1
.
.
Dr N
.
.
Dr N
g 0 2 0 2
- 0 1 0 2
4 9 , 8 2 1
* * 5 7 , 0 3 1
* * 1 , 8 8
Freight turnover of all types of transport, mln. ton-km*
Transportation (departure) of goods by rail (wide co-layee), thousand tons of passengers Departure by rail transport port of general use, thousand people Passenger turnover of motor transport, million passengers-km
7 , 4 0 1
6 , 4 0 1
6 , 3 7
4 , 7 9 *Clarified. **Without 2020 Mr. The Republic of Dagestan in terms of transportation of goods by road transport (5,4 million tons) is in 3- the place according to the North Federal District, on the turnover of road transport (482 Millions of ton-km 2- the same results for the dispatch of passengers by rail, as well as for the carriage of passengers by public buses and passenger traffic of public buses.
1 , 6 4
8 , 7 6
4 , 2 7
3 , 6 4
8 , 7 1 1
5 , 0 5 1
3 , 5 3 1
7 , 8 0 1
53
During the period, the region’s foreign trade turnover decreased from 541,3 million to 164,4 million.
US dollars, or by 69,4% (Table 1.2.25.), including:
Countries outside the CIS - with 314,4 Millions before 95,2 Millions of dollars the United States or 69,7%. Exports as Exports to 55,3% (with 126,0 to 56,3 Millions of dollars United States and imports of 74% (with 415,3 to 101,8 Millions of dollars USA).
the CIS countries - with 226,9 to 71,4 Millions of dollars the United States or 68,5%. However, the decrease is due to a decrease in imports of 207,0 to 28,3 Millions of dollars United States or nearly 86%. Exports have increased over the period 20,0 to 40,9 Millions of dollars the United States or 205%.
Table 1.2.25. Dynamics of foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Dagestan in 2010-
2020, ths dollars USA
Foreign trade turnover - total including export import Foreign trade turnover with countries outside the CIS including export import Foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries including export
2010 541,3
2015 344,5
2020 164,4
126,0 415,3 314,4
106,1 208,4 226,9
51,7 292,9 171,4
27,6 143,8 173,2
20,0 207,0
24,1 149,1
56,3 108,1 95,2
15,4 79,8 69,2
40,9 28,3
2020/2010 in % 30,4
44,7 26,0 30,3
14,5 38,3 30,5
205,1 13,7
1.2.4. Spatial development and preferential territories
Northern Dagestan includes the cities of Kizlyar and Yuzhno-Sukhokumsk and the municipal districts of Nogaysky, Kizlyarsky, Tarumovsky and Babayurtovsky. It is primarily an agro-industrial territorial zone, but also has developed industrial functions, with defence-industry complex (OBK) facilities in the urban okrugs of Yuzhno-Sukhokumsk and Kizlyar. Its principal territorial parameters, here and below as of the beginning of 2020, are: area, 18.5 thousand square kilometres, or 36.6% of the Republic of Dagestan's total area; population, 237.2 thousand people, excluding the population of the mountain districts' “kutans”, or 7.7% of the republic's total population; population density, 12.81 people per square kilometre. With 6.1% of the republic's population and 6.2% of its fixed-capital investment, the Northern Dagestan territorial zone accounts for 10.6% of the total turnover of enterprises and organisations across all types of economic activity in the republic, and 20.3% of the total volume of products shipped and services provided in industrial activities. This indicates the high efficiency of its economy among the republic's territorial zones.
Central Dagestan: includes the territories of the NGO "Makhachkala city", NGO "Buinaksk city", NGO "Izberbash", NGO "Caspian city", NGO "Kizilurt city", NGO "state Khasavyurt" as well as municipal areas: Babayurtovsky, Buynaksky, Kazbekov-sky, Karabudakhkentsky, Kayakavtorsky. Central Dagestan is a large multifunctional territorial zone of the RD with developed industrial, agro-industrial, trans-port and logistics functions, a construction base, a tourist and recreational complex, a business and scientific and educational center, the capital of the republic - the city of Makhachkala, with the development of military-strategic functions, with the presence of defense industry facilities and the Main Base of the Caspian Flotilla of the Navy.
54
It is characterised by a high concentration of the republic’s economic potential, including its labour, industrial, investment and innovation potential. The territory’s main parameters are: an area of 11.81 thousand square kilometres, or 23.5% of the territory of the Republic of Dagestan; a population of 1,797.7 thousand people, or 57.8% of the republic’s population; and a population density of 152.2 people per square kilometre. According to the “Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2025”, the Makhachkala agglomeration is a promising territory for economic growth of federal significance.
In the agricultural specialization of the republic occupies a strong position in the production of meat (54,2% from all-republican production), grain (30%). Viticulture is developed. Central Dagestan, with a population share of 57,8%, occupies in the total turnover of enterprises and organizations in all types of economic activity of the republic 64,6%: the efficiency of the economy of the territory is higher than the average in the republic - it occupies 2 place among the territorial zones of the republic.
In this territorial zone, the following economic zones can be distinguished: "Khasavyurtovskoy-Kizilyurtovskaya" (KKEZ). It includes the following territories: NGO "Hasaviurt", NGO "Kizilurt", as well as municipal districts Kazbekovsky, No-volaksky, Khasaviurtovsky, Kizilyurtovsky. In general, the economy of HKEZ is characterized by very low efficiency. At the same time, the situation with the effectiveness of the eco-nomination of the NGO Hasavyurt is worse: with a share of the population 4,7% from the Republican Party, and 3,8% of the total volume of investments in the republic, the turnover for all types of economic activities of the zone is total 0,4%.
"Makhachkala" (MakhEZ). It includes the territories: NGO "Makhachkala", NGO "Caspian city", NGO "Izberbash city", as well as municipal districts: Kumtorka-Lynsky, Karabudakhketsky and Kayakentsky. MahEZ: a multifunctional zone with a diversified economy, the presence of the Makhachkala agglomeration, with a high concentration of the urban population, a developed urban environment; one of the centers of the defense industry of the Russian Federation with the deployment of the base of the "Caspian flotilla" of the Navy of the Russian Federation; transport and logistics center, center of transit relations in the international transport corridors "North-South", "East-West"; medical center. It is distinguished by the presence of metropolitan functions and a high level of concentration of economic potential, administrative and managerial functions of both Central Dagestan and the republic as a whole. The makhaz in the agricultural specialization of the republic has weak positions (production of grain – 4,8%, Milk – 2,4% Meat – 4,6%). Wine growing and winemaking are developed and developed on the territory of Kayakent and Karabudakhkent districts. In general, the economy of the MakhEZ is characterized by high efficiency: with a share of the population 35,1% the number of its members, and 40,8% of the total volume of investments in the republic, the turnover for all types of economic activities of the zone is 60,0%; 2 place in the leadership group on economic efficiency among cities and districts of the republic.
Buynak Economic Zone (BuEZ). It includes the territories of: GO Buynaksk and Buynaksky municipal district. The economy of BuEZ is characterized as one of the lowest in terms of performance among the economic zones of the republic: with the share of population 4,7% Population of the Republic and 4,4% of the total volume of investments in fixed assets in the republic, the turnover for all types of economic activity of the zone is 0,2%; 9 Place from 10 efficiency in the economic zones of the region. The economy of Buynaksk is relatively more efficient - above the average for the efficiency of the economy among cities and districts of the republic. The economy of the Buynak district is one of the worst in terms of performance in the republic: with a share of the population 2,1% Population of the Republic and 3,6% of the total volume of investments in the republic, the turnover for all types of economic activity is 0,02%.
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Key industrial production of the economic zone: JSC "Buynak Ag-regatta plant" (M. Buynaksk) is included in the consolidated register of organizations of the military-industrial complex and the list of strategic enterprises and organizations (FEA "Production of mechanical equipment" - the production of units and assemblies for military and civil aviation equipment); "Musharaka" Ltd (Mr. Buynaksk, Foreign Economic Activity: "Production of Plastic Plates, Strips, Pipes and Profiles".
Mountainous Dagestan: the territorial zone includes the main part of the mountainous territories of Dagestan. Includes the territories of municipal districts: Ahvakh, Botlikh, Gumbetovsky, Gergebil, Unzukulsky, Tliaratinsky, Hunzakh, Sha-Mila, Tsumadinsky, Tsuntinskiy, Bezhtinsky site - form in the west of the territory "Unzukuly economic zone"; Akushinsky, Gunibsky, Kulinsky, Laksky, Levashinsky, Sergokalinsky - form the "Levashin Economic Zone" in the east. Territorial zone of Mountainous Dagestan, with a share of population 16,6% and share of investments 16,5% In the case of the Republic as a whole, the 5,8% in the total turnover of enterprises and organizations for all types of economic activity of the republic, which shows low efficiency of the territory's economy - significantly lower than the average for the territorial zones of the republic.
Southern Dagestan: the territorial zone includes the southern part of the coastal, foothill and mountain territories of Dagestan. Includes the following territories: NGO "City of Der-Bent", NGO "City of Dagestan Lights"; municipal areas: Agulsky, Dakhadayevsky, Derbent, Kaitagsky, Kurakhsky, Suleyman-Stalsky, Tabasaran, Khivsky - form the "Derbent Economic Zone" in the south-east of the territory; Ru-Tul, Akhtyn, Dokuzparinsky, Magaramken - form the "Samur economic zone". South Dagestan is one of the geostrategically important territories of the RD and the Russian Federation, with developed industrial (with defense industry facilities), agro-industrial, tourist and recreational and military-border functions. A regional feature is its location on the southern state border of the Russian Federation with the Republic of Azerbaijan: along the southern border of the municipal districts of the "Samur Economic Zone" is the state border of the Russian Federation with Azerbaijan. Territorial zone of South Dagestan, with a share of the population 19,5% and share of investments 16,7% In the case of the Republic as a whole, the 13,2% in the general turnover of enterprises and organizations in all types of economic activity of the republic - the efficiency of the economy is lower than the average for the territorial zones of the republic. In terms of aggregated industrial output (20,3%) The territory of "South Dagestan" is used economically relatively efficiently among the districts and cities of the republic. The territorial zone in the agricultural specialization of the economy of the Republic occupies a strong position in viticulture and winemaking, horticulture and horticulture, in animal husbandry (KRS), as well as in fish farming.
"Derbent Economic Zone" (DEZ). It includes the following territories: NGO "City of Derbent", NGO "City of Dagestan Lights"; municipal areas: Agulsky, Dahada-Evskiy, Derbent, Kaitagsky, Kurakhsky, Suleyman-Stalsky, Tabasaransky, Khivsky. In agricultural specialization, the SEZ holds strong positions in viviculture, vegetable and horticulture, livestock breeding (KRS). In general, the economy of the DEZ is characterized by higher average performance among economic zones of the public: with a share of the population 15,4% Population of the Republic and 13,0% of the total volume of investments in the republic, the turnover for all types of economic activity of the zone is 11,7%. Municipal budgets are still in a difficult situation in the republic, since their revenues are mainly secured by deductions from personal income tax. And the receipts of local taxes, as well as taxes under special regimes (USN, UTIS, patent, ESHN) are insignificant. And in the total amount of taxes and fees of the budget of the republic they occupy only 3-3,8% respectively.
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Against the background of the continuing general low level of socio-economic development of Dagestan in comparison with the average Russian indicators, imbalances in the development of certain territorial zones, cities and districts of the republic are growing. With the growth of the population, this leads to chronic insufficiency of many objects of social and industrial purposes, including those with the conditions of production, work and maintenance corresponding to modern standards. For example, according to Dagestan statistics for the last two years, by districts and cities of the republic, specific investments in fixed assets (excluding budget funds) per capita were in the range of less than 500 rub. (areas Agul-sky, Akushinsky, Gumbetovsky, Botlikhsky, Kaitagsky, Kurakhsky, Tabasaransky, Rutulsky, Suleyman-Stalsky, Tsumadinsky and the cities of Dagestan Lights, Buynaksk) to more 10000 rub. (Untsukulsky, Shamilsky, and the city of Izberbash, South Sukhokumsk).
Preferential areas. the Government of the Russian Federation 29 July 2014 № 1398The cities of the Caspian and Daghestan Lights were awarded the status of monocities of the Russian Federation. At present, in the single-industry towns of the Caspian and Dagestani Lights, by decrees of the Government of the Russian Federation 24 March 2017 № 334 and from 11 December 2018 № 1508 Two territories of advanced socio-economic development (TOSER) "Caspian" and "Dagestan Lights" were created. The presence of the status of a resident of TOSED in single-industry towns implies significant tax benefits and preferences (reduced rates for contributions to extra-budgetary funds from 30 to 7,6%, zero rates of property tax and land tax, reduced rates of income tax – 5% During the first five years, 13% – The next five years). The minimum requirements for residents of TOSER "Caspian" are established in terms of capital investments – 5 million rubles and the number of jobs created – 20 units, for residents of TOSER "Dagestan Lights" by volume of capital investments – 2,5 million rubles, by the number of jobs created – 10 units. The State of the Union 1 July 2021 the TOSER Resident Register 17 companies, including 14 – the TOSER "Caspian", 3 – on TOSER "Dagestan Lights". Residents of TOSER "Caspian" in the framework of investment projects attracted investment in the amount of 360,85 million rubles, created 319 Daghe-Stan Lights TOSER residents attracted jobs 41,81 million rubles. investments and created 22 Jobs. In the framework of TOSER "Caspian" 2027 The year provides for the creation 3990 new jobs, attracting 35 Residents and 17,7 billion Ruble of investments. Accordingly, the residence-Tami TOSER "Dagestan Lights" to 2028 The year provides for the creation 1229 Jobs and Attraction 23 Residents and 4,8 billion Rubles of investments.
1.2.5. The state of the environment.
Modern processes of human activity and urbanization contribute to the depletion of natural resources, air pollution, surface and groundwater, soils, the disappearance of not only many species of plants and animals, but also entire native complexes. In general, the environment in the Republic of Dagestan is not satisfactory. The geological environment and soil cover have been significantly disturbed by dangerous natural processes. The total area of land in the northern zone of the Republic of Dagestan affected by desertification is 1,5 million heck-packs – 94,6 % the entire territory of the northern pastures and is assessed as an environmental disaster. In the northern zone, deterioration of the topsoil, loss of humus and decrease in the level of natural fertility of soils due to sheep grazing, and the onset of sands, have been identified. With sheep grazing rate 0,5 Head to hectare in the Republic, it is 1,7 head per hectare, and in some areas, for example, in Babayurtovskaya, reaches 3,3.
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In addition, the number of sheep belonging to the residents of Nogay, Tarumovsky, Kizlyarsky districts is about 600 thousand heads, plus tens of thousands of heads of cattle and horses. With such loads, pasture circulation is quickly disturbed, and many areas practically do not rest.
The level of bacterial contamination of drinking water is extremely high mainly due to: contamination of water sources, lack of sanitary protection zones, treatment facilities and disinfectants, high wear of water pipelines and breeding networks (up to 90%). Extremely low iodine content in the external environment, including in water, causes a high incidence of en-demic goiter.
The quality of the sea waters of the Dagestani Primorye in the area of the estuaries of the river Sou-lacquer, as well as from Makhachkala to Izberbash, changes from "moderately polluted" to "dirty". In coastal cities and areas, the issues of organizing areas of marine water use (beach zones), the regime of which is regulated by regulatory documents, have not been resolved, the boundaries of the sanitary protection districts of the resort zone along the coast have not been established.
In cities and districts, the issues of sewage and wastewater treatment, problems of solid household waste management have not been resolved. With the development of vehicles and transport communications, the number of substances polluting atmospheric air increases. In the republic, the regimes of specially protected natural territories and zones are violated with a special condition for the use of territories.
Further deterioration of the environmental situation in the Republic of Dagestan jeopardizes the future socio-economic development. Environmental health and protection are associated with the solution of existing problems, the most important of which are:
- risk of emergencies related to natural disasters
and dangerous geological processes (earthquakes, floods, etc.);
destruction of the geological environment by dangerous natural and man-made processes;
cassami (slides, cliffs, erosion, abrasion, karst, mud, avalanches, etc.);
- local pollution of the air basin; - pollution of river and sea waters; - low quality of drinking water; - erosion, washing, disturbance and soil pollution; - reduction of forest area and deterioration of their quality; - erosion of the coastline of the sea; - weakening of the ecological framework; - poor condition or complete absence of treatment facilities;
sewerage systems;
- problems of waste management; - use of poor-quality fuel by motor vehicles; - non-compliance with zones with special conditions for the use of the territory; - lack of modern materials of engineering-geological and engineering-economy;
logical shooting.
In addition to the protection and rehabilitation of certain elements of the environment
Wednesday, in the territory of the Republic of Dagestan it is necessary:
- to continue work on the formation of a territorial system of environmental monitoring, the creation of an information and analytical center for processing information on the state of the environment and the use of natural resources, the regulation of the maximum permissible harmful effects on the nature of Dagestan;
- within the framework of the execution of powers in the field of environmental supervision of the Ministry of Natural Resources and its territorial structures, regularly carry out control and supervisory measures to comply with environmental legislation;
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- to strengthen production and state environmental control over the potential
Environmentally hazardous objects;
- to ensure the conduct of a state environmental examination on all aspects of
the projects of the planned economic activity;
- improve the accounting and regulation of environmental impact on
enterprises of the republic;
- Develop and approve standards for maximum permissible concentrations of pollutants. For the entire territory, the maximum permissible concentrations for all patients should not exceed 0,8 MPC; and for health and recreation areas and resorts - 0,7 MPC;
- legislatively and on the ground to approve the boundaries of special use zones, including water protection and sanitary protection zones of water sources, as well as protection zones of resorts and medical and resort areas;
- licensing of certain types of protection activities
environment and environmental management;
- Continue work on environmental education and education of the population. Assessment of the ecological state of the environment in the territory of Dagestan made it possible to identify the territories characterized by: a relatively favorable state of the environment; a relatively satisfactory state of the environment; a tense state of the environment. Territories with a relatively favorable state of the environment occupy the southern mountainous and foothills of Dagestan. There are no serious violations of the natural environment in these territories. Here, in the future, there may be manifestations of violations of the geological environment associated with landslides, erosion, unresolved problems of household maintenance, the lack of certain necessary components in the waters used for construction. Areas with a tense state of the environment are confined to the city district. Makhachkala, Caspian and other large settlements. Environmental changes here are associated with possible pollution of airspace, surface waters, a complex of dangerous geological processes (slides, erosion, erosion, flooding), high man-made load.
1.2.6. A brief assessment of the effectiveness of implementation in the republic
Regional strategic documents and state programs.
The strategy of social and economic development of the Republic of Dagestan for the period up to 2025 was adopted in 2011 in the form of the Law of the Republic of Dagestan of 15.07.2011 No 38. The main goal of the Strategy-2025 was to increase the quality of life of the population on the basis of increasing competitiveness, sustainable economic development and security of the region. The second level strategic objectives were:
economic development - sustainable economic growth and ensuring competitiveness on the basis of synergy of international flows and industrial-innovative complexes;
social and innovative development - creation of complex conditions for the benefit of
half-time and safe life, work and creativity, recreation and sports of a person;
spatial development - balanced spatial development and integration into the interregional and international socio-economic space; institutional development - the creation of a competitive institutional environment,
Promote balanced sustainable development.
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In the strategy-2025 Three scenarios for the development of the Republic of Dagestan were determined 2025 year - inertial, basic and optimistic, as well as indicators of the implementation of the Strategy. In order to achieve the stated objectives of the Strategy-2025 In the republic, a deep modernization of its economy was planned in three stages: 2011-2015Gov, 2016-2020Gov, 2021-2025Total expenditure In the framework of the Action Plan for the implementation of the Strategy 2011-2015 years, were developed and approved (decree of the Government of the Republic of Dagestan 27 December 2012 № 471) Social and economic development of territorial zones 2025 Year: year Makhachkala, North Dagestan, Central Dagestan, Coastal Dagestan, Mountainous Dagestan. On their basis, the Program for Economic and Social Development of Municipal Districts and Urban Districts of the Republic of Dagestan was then developed.
Strategy-2025 was adjusted taking into account: the results of the implementation of its first stage; adoption of the Federal law of the Russian Federation 28 June 2014 № 172-FZ "On strategic planning in the Russian Federation"; target indicators of social and economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation and decrees of the President of the Russian Federation 7 May 2012 № 596-602, 606; the State Programs of the Republic of Dagestan.
The analysis showed that within the framework of the Strategy, the state programs of the RD were adopted and implemented, the Gotsatlin hydroelectric power station was commissioned, education and health facilities were built, the road network of the republic was built and developed, the airport, the railway station and the seaport were modernized, the MFCs were opened in municipal districts and state districts of the republic, the development of industry and the agro-industrial complex were implemented. At the same time, significant fluctuations in the world and Russian economy in the period under review, irregular financing of activities and insufficient investment, unbalanced state policy in the field of spatial development, a significant shortage of resources for the development of modern infrastructure, "cotyledon" restrictions and a number of other factors predetermined the lag in the pace of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan from the ones outlined in Strategy-2025. Therefore, despite certain results of implementation of the Strategy - 2025 in 2012-2020, out of 29 its target indicators it is possible to speak about achievement of three (planned values of the base scenario are exceeded), for two more values of the inertial scenario were achieved, for the majority of other indicators the current values are significantly lower than planned indicators even of the inertial scenario8. Positive changes were achieved, first of all, in the growth of the population, housing per capita, increasing revenues of the consolidated budget of the region, and the development of tourism.
State Program of the Russian Federation "Development of the North Caucasus Federal District" for the period up to 2025 The implementation plan was approved by the Government of Russia 15 April 2014 № 309. It is the main tool for the implementation of the previously approved socio-economic development strategy of the North Caucasus Federal District 2025 Mr. The purpose of the state program was initially stated to create conditions for the development of the real sector of the economy of the North Caucasus Federal District, improving the quality of life and well-being of citizens. According to the program, budget allocations from the federal budget in 2013-2025 The years should have 264,3 billion RUR, including the RD development subprogram 2016-2025Gov – 24,73 billion rub. In fact, it was planned around the 8 billion rub.
8 By 3 out of 29 indicators evaluation cannot be carried out due to lack of published
official statistics.
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The program was supposed to be implemented in three stages (conditionally): 2013-2015 - the first stage (preparatory, currently completed), when the priority measures are mainly social development and infrastructure, the completion of previously implemented federal target programs in the region.
2016-2020 - the second stage, when the priority economic development measures and
Infrastructure support for investment projects.
2021-2025 - the third stage - mainly the development of resorts in the North Caucasus Federal District, reducing the amount of funding from the federal budget, increasing the participation of institutions of development, repayment of funds, as well as active attraction of private investment. The implementation of Strategy-2025 of the NCFD over the past period did not provide the republic (as well as other subjects of the Russian Federation of the NCFD) with a faster pace of socio-economic development, as originally stated, a comprehensive solution of issues related to the creation of conditions for the socio-economic development of the region: it was not possible to reverse the trend of lagging in such indicators as the development of industrial production, the production of GRP per capita, the appropriate rate of growth of housing. Various preferential regimes and benefits applied in the region did not ensure the inflow of investment and the creation of a significant number of new jobs; in many respects, the investment projects provided for in the initially Strategy-2025 of the North Caucasus Federal District - the construction of industrial facilities, schools, medical and health complexes, etc.
The Federal Targeted Investment Program is another important document within the framework of which targeted investments were made for the social and industrial infrastructure of the Republic of Dagestan in the analyzed period. V 2010- 2020In total, investments were sent to the republic 51,7 billion rub. (84,3% budget allocations), and the actual 46,7 billion RUB or 76,1% from budget appointments.
National projects of the Russian Federation. V 2019 the Republic of Dagestan participated in the 10 National Projects (48 regional projects), and 2020 The Year - 12 National Procts (52 regional projects: "Demography", "Health", "Education", "Housing and urban environment", "Ecology", "Safe and high-quality roads", "Digital economy", "Culture", "Small and medium-sized enterprises and support for individual entrepreneurial initiative", "International cooperation and export", "Labour productivity and employment support" and "Science". Financing of national projects "Labour productivity and support for employment", and "Science" in 2020 year was not provided for, and 2019 They were not implemented in the territory of the republic. National projects are implemented 17 Ministries and Departments of the Republic of Dagestan.
Taking into account the funds of non-budgetary sources of financing and local budgets, the total amount of provided funding for the implementation of national projects (hereinafter referred to as NP) in the Republic of Dagestan in 2020 G was 29,6 billion rub. (2019 St Petersburg – 21,33 billion rub.).
Of total budget appropriations of 27.75 billion roubles (19.89 billion roubles in 2019), the largest amounts were allocated to measures under the national projects “Demography”—11.82 billion roubles, or 42.6% (8.86 billion roubles, or 44.5%, in 2019); “Education”—7.76 billion roubles, or 28% (5.08 billion roubles, or 25.5%); and “Healthcare”—3.65 billion roubles, or 13.2% (1.74 billion roubles, or 8.7%).
V 2020 NP budget funds in the amount 27, 74 billion RUB or 99,9 % Authorized appointments (2019 St Petersburg – 19,88 billion RUB or 99,9%).
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However, as before, during the year there was an irregular funding of the NP, and from the total budget allocation for 2020 Year actually mastered 21,39 billion RUB or 77,1 % (2019 St Petersburg – 9,82 billion RUB or 49,4 %). In addition, in 2020 g budget allocations for the implementation of the NP "Culture" have been fully utilized – 198,9 million rubles, "International cooperation and export" – 42,4 million rubles, "Ecology" – 74,63 million rubles, "Small and medium-sized enterprises" – 254,86 Millions of rubles, and in 2019 NP "Culture" (177,7 million rubles), NP "Safe and quality roads" (1 648,6 million rubles), NP "International cooperation and export" (45,4 million rubles). Mastering 95% and more in 2020 by NP "Health" – 3 472,6 million rubles, "Housing and urban environment" – 2 018,5 million rubles, "Safe and high-quality roads" – 1 786,4 million rubles. by NP "Digital Economy" (3,86 Millions of rubles) is used 83,0 pro-cent, NP "Demography" (9 120,6 million rubles) – 77,1 Percentage. Low level of development developed under the NP "Education" – 56,9 % (4 419, 8 million rubles).
In 2019, funding for 6 national projects in the Republic of Dagestan remained unspent: “Demography”—6,140.75 million roubles, or 69.30%; “Education”—3,522.96 million roubles, or 69.34%; “Healthcare”—6.6 million roubles, or 0.4%; “Housing and the Urban Environment”—0.74 million roubles, or 0.07%; “Ecology”—13.14 million roubles; and “Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises and Support for Individual Entrepreneurial Initiative”—376.65 million roubles.
1.2.7. Features of the modern stage of socio-economic development
Republic - stage, type, technological basis.
The choice of priorities for the future development of the Republic of Dagestan and the opportunities for their implementation largely depend on the definition of the stage and type of socio-economic development of the region, as well as on the technological basis and stage of the cycle of development of the republic's economy. Currently, four main stages of socio-economic development of the region are distinguished in the world economic science. Their allocation is based on the ratio of sectors of the economy: 1. Primary stage: predominance of agriculture, forestry and extractive industries. 2. Secondary stage: predominance of the “secondary sector” (manufacturing, construction and transport). 3. Tertiary stage: predominance of products in the sphere of personal services (trade, housing and communal services, health care, etc.). 4. Quaternary stage: predominance of intellectual work (science, education, information technology, credit, etc.).
Based on the GRP structure of the Republic 2019 Year (see para. Tab faces 1.2.26.), The primary sector and the primary sector are 17,1 percentage of GRP, "secondary" – 26,9 Percentage of “Tertiary” – 40,7 percent and “quarters” – 15,3 Percentage of GRP in the region.
Table 1.2.26. Dynamics of economic sectors in the structure of the GRP of the Republic of Dagestan
State 2005-2019gg
2005 2010 2015 2018 2019
Primary sector (agriculture, forestry, mining) Secondary sector (manufacturing, construction and transport)
25,5 15,6 15,7 16,69 17,11
34,7 34,4 30,4 26,85 26,87
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Tertiary sector (spheres of personal services - trade, housing, health care, etc.) Quaternary sector (spheres of intellectual labor - science, education, information technologies, credit sphere, etc.)
30,0 39,0 42,6 41,17 40,69
9,8
11,0 11,3 15,3
15,32
Thus, the Republic of Dagestan is mainly at the tertiary (post-industrial) stage of development with significant elements of the secondary (in-dushtrial) stage. At the same time, according to some calculations, about a dozen subjects of the federation are at the "primary" - pre-industrial stage of socio-economic development.
Assessment of the type of socio-economic development of the region. The industry of the Republic of Dagestan by the time of creation of key enterprises, applied technologies and nomenclature of products should be attributed mainly to the fourth technological order, the formation of which took place in the 1960- 1980Total expenditure The crisis of this system in the Republic has come 2010-2020Total expenditure It is obvious that the Dagestan public, due to the availability of natural resources and close to the average level of investment (47 the level of investment per capita), can be attributed to the average investment type of development with elements of innovative.
Typology of the regions of the Russian Federation on the structural and sectoral basis should take into account the modern structural features of the domestic economy and significant structural and sectoral shifts in the medium and long term. The above analysis of the socio-economic development of the republic shows that the Republic of Dagestan has moved to the number of regions of the country of agrarian-polyservice type. The dynamics of the consolidated structure of GRP according to the criterion of production of goods and services over the past 15 years shows that this situation in the economy of the RD is fixed - Table 1.2.27.
Table 1.2.27. Dynamics of structure of GRP of the Republic of Dagestan on production
goods and services in 2005-2019, %
Indicator
Gross regional product, including: 100,0 46,0 Production of goods - industry 9,8 - agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming - construction Production of services (a) Market services: transport and communication
23,6 12,6 54,0 40,6 14,2
2005 St Petersburg 2010 St Petersburg 2015 St Petersburg 2018 St Petersburg 2019 100,0 100,0 38,7 39,2 6,63 6,3
100,0 41,7 7,2
100,0 41,0 6,5
15,1 19,4 59,0 44,1 9,0
15,3 17,6 60,8 44,9 6,9
18,1 16,4 58,3 39,5 8,1
16,63 15,44 61,3 40,8 6,89
trade and commercial activities for the re-sale of goods and services (b) non-market services: health, physical education and social security, cultural, sports, leisure and entertainment activities
26,4 13,4
35,1 14,9
38,0 15,9
31,4 18,8
33,91 20,5
7,7
10,0
10,9
12,2
13,2
5,7
4,9
5,0
6,6
7,3
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With this structure of the GRP, the economy of the region, on the one hand, becomes more diversified, mobile and susceptible to changes, on the other hand, is increasingly dependent on the situation in the regional market, including the population of the republic, the level of income and savings of the population and economic entities, access of the population and economic entities to credit resources, the activity of investment activities in the region. The regional economy is becoming more vulnerable, which was most pronounced during the period of “covid” restrictions of 2020: at the end of the year, the volume of paid services to the population fell by almost 16%.
1.2.8. Stage of the life cycle of the Republic of Dagestan.
The life cycle of a territory is understood as a sequential change in the stages of territorial development within the framework of the dominant functional specialization of the territory (priority types of economic activity), which determines the level of its competitiveness and adaptability to the effects of external and internal problems. For the economic space, it is formed under the influence of trends in the development of the institutional environment (information approach). As quantitative criteria for determining the boundaries of the stages of the life cycle of the region, the threshold values of economic security proposed by leading scientists in this field (Glazyov S.Yu., Senchagov V.K., etc.) were used.
The corresponding system of description of the four stages identification indicators (the allocation of more is actually a further detail of these) of the life cycle of the Republic of Dagestan is summarized in the table below - Table 1.2.28.
Table 1.2.28. Life Cycle Stage Identification Indicators System
Republic of Dagestan (color indication - compliance with the indicators of the region)
Dynamics of indicators by stages of the life cycle
Nr. p/p
Indicator
Growth rate of gross output (GRP), % Average annual growth rate of labor productivity, % Natural population growth (people per capita 1000 Population growth (people in 1000 Residents)
Depreciation of basic funds, %
Unemployment according to the ILO methodology, %
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Education (transformation) High (medium) -(5-10) High (medium)
Stanovle
Development
Decline
High Average
>10
5-10
High Average
Low or high price <5 Low or high price
-(6-12)
>12
6-12
<6
Very high (average)
High Average
Low or high-grade
>20 (5-12,5)
12,5-20
5-12,5
<5
Very high (average)
High Average
Low or high-grade
>10 (1,1-2)
2-10
1,1-2
<1,1
Virtually absent 0-10 Virtually absent 0-1 High
Low
Medium
High
10-30
30-40
>40
Low
Average
High
1-1
4-5
High** Average
>5 Low
64
Share of investments in fixed assets in GRP, %
Fund ratio, %
Provision of doctors for 10 Thousands of people*, volume of emissions into the atmosphere from stationary sources, t/km Innovative activity of organizations, %
Housing size 1 inhabitants, sq. m
8
9
10
11
12
>10
30-40
25-30
<25
Low
<3
Low
<30 (<40)
Low
Below Average 3-6 Average (growing) 30-40 (40-55) Average (growing)
Above average 6-8
High
>40 (>55) High
High
>8 Average (declining)
30-40 (40-55)
Average (decreased)
<0,2 (growth)
0,2-0,5
0,5-0,6
<0,5 (fall)
High (medium) >50 (20-50)
Low
<20
High
Average
Low
>50 Average (Growing) 20-25
20-50 Higher 25-30
<20 The average (reduced) <25
* is based on intercountry comparisons. In parentheses -
Alternative values based on estimates of the shortage of doctors in Russia
**according to official statistics. However, there are serious doubts about the...
confidence of numbers.
At the stages of formation and formation, due to some inertia of social processes, the economic activity of the territory develops more rapidly than the social sphere.
At the end of the development stage and at the beginning of the decline, despite the economic indicators, social indicators supported by budget financing can remain at a good level for quite a long time. This statement accurately describes the period experienced by the Republic of Da-gestan.
The analysis of the values of the relevant indicators suggests that the Dagestani Republic is at an early stage of the decline of the current life cycle of the region’s economy, when certain limits of growth and development have been reached within the framework of the existing system.
To achieve a turnaround in the situation and enter a new cycle of development, a change in the development paradigm is required, taking into account the interests of the whole society and with the active participation of the population, business, regional and federal authorities and management.
At the same time, taking into account the results of the typology of the region on the structural and sectoral sign, it is also necessary to take into account the modern features of the domestic and regional economies and significant structural and sectoral shifts both in the medium and in the long term.
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1.3. The place of the Republic of Dagestan in the socio-economic development of Russia
the Russian Federation and North Caucasus Federal District
The Republic of Dagestan in the Russian Federation occupies a special priority geo-strategic position in the southern direction. This is an outpost and the "south gate of the country" in the Caucasus. The Republic of Dagestan has a fairly large and diversified economy by types of activity. According to Ros-stat, according to the main indicators of socio-economic development, the Republic of Dagestan among the subjects of the Russian Federation and the Russian Federation is positioned as follows:
Table 1.2.29. Place of the Republic of Dagestan in the Russian Federation and the Northern Federal District
basic indicators of socio-economic development*
Name of indicators
Area Population by area 1 January 2021 including GRP per capita per capita per capita for urban rural development Investments in fixed assets per capita Fixed assets in the economy (at full accounting value; at year-end 1 Ruble of value of PF Volume of shipped goods of own production, performed works and services by own forces by types of economic activity: mining, processing production provision of electric energy, gas and steam; air conditioning water supply; water disposal, organization of collection and disposal of waste, elimination of pollution Agricultural products Area of agricultural land Poultry stock Sheep and goats Livestock cattle and poultry
Place in
Percentage of RF 0,3 2,14
SKFO RF 52 29,5 12 31,44
SKFO 2 1
1,3 4,64 0,76 35,9 1,39 65,2
28,25 34,68 31,3 99,95 39,5 125,9
0,52
25,46
23 2 34 81 18 46
49
145,2
122,9
9
0,04 0,1
17,0 9,9
0,31
11,5
0,14
9,3
2,25 1,51 5,25 20,55 1,69
10,15 28,50 4,95 1,39 2,91 0,54 26,14 0,32 9,8
26,93 27,38 45,61 55,89 24,0
58,63 77,28 24,62 21,33 33,89 15,6 59,88 4,64 89,9
53 69
65
69
14 21 2 1 20
1 2 3 23 7 43 1 44 2
2 1 2 3 1 1
2
3
3 2
3
2
2 2 1 1 2
1 1 2 2 1 2 1 5 1
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The area of vineyards in the fruit-bearing age The amount of work performed by type of activity "Construction" Commissioning of residential and non-residential buildings, thousand sq. m Construction of residential buildings, sq. m on 1 people. Individual housing construction, provided by the population, sq. m for 1 people. Retail trade turnover
0,06 1,82 5,77 26,27
1,98 35,04 43,22 73,81
1,91
40,15
0,94
20,98
56,4
78,6
61,54
62,9
1,75
30,05
12,23
29,96
29 17 2 2
12
30
69
63
12
59
20
4 1 1 1
1
2
7
6
1
2
2
Wholesale trade wholesale organizations wholesale 0,14
The volume of paid services to the population
1,35
*Colour marking: 1-21 places - positions in the leading quarter of subjects of the Russian Federation in terms of the indicator (1 Place in NCFD); 22-42 places - positions above the average (2-3 places in NCFD); 43-63 Positions below average (4-5 the NCFD); 64-85 Positions - Outsider positions by the main rank of the indicator (6-7 places in NCFD).
Republic of Dagestan: in terms of population (01.01.2021g - 3133 thousand people) occupies 1 place in the North Caucasus Federal District and 12 place in the Russian Federation, and in terms of the absolute value of natural population growth - 1 places both in the district and in the country as a whole;
by GRP (2019 — 718.5 billion rubles): 2nd place in the district and 34th among
Subjects of RF. According to the GRP per capita, respectively, 3 and 81 places;
by volume of investments in fixed assets - 1 place in the North-Eastern Federal District and 18 place in the Russian Federation. In-
investment in fixed capital per capita - respectively, 1 and 46 places;
the Agricultural Products Industry – 14 place. The Republic of Dagestan 2,12% Population of the Russian Federation, produced 0,76% GRP of RF subjects, 0,46% Industrial products and 2,3% products of agriculture in Russia. The amount of work performed by the type of activity "Construction", in the republic is 1,9% from an all-Russian similar indicator. The Republic - Goes 1,3% All - Russian Housing, 1,2% Investments in the main capital, 1,8% Retail Trade Turnover, 1,3% The amount of paid services to the population. Favorable natural and demographic conditions of the republic led to a strategically significant position of the region to ensure food security of the Russian Federation. The rural population of the republic is about 5% rural population of the country and more than a third of the rural population of the North Caucasus Federal District. In Dagestan is concentrated around 1,5% Farming, more 5% cattle and more 20% Small cattle, around 6% Gardens and 27% vineyards in the fruit-bearing age of the Russian Federation. According to the NCFD, these shares of the republic are: agricultural land 27,4%; CRS 45,6%, MRS 55,9%; Gardens 43,2%; vineyards 43,2%.
In the structure of the GRP of the republic, the share of agriculture is about 15% (non-economic activities forestry, hunting, fishing and fish farming), which is almost in 4 This is more than the national average. The Republic produces 2,2% Crop production and 2,4% The country's livestock products. According to a whole group of indicators of agricultural production, Dagestan occupies a leading position in Russia and the North-Eastern Federal District: vegetables (more 10% All-Russian and almost 59% SKFO), wine-grade (28,5% and 77,3%, Fruits and berries, respectively (5,0% and 24,6%), Livestock and poultry meat (1,4% and 21,3%), Milk (2,9% and 33,9%), Wool (26,1% and 59,9%). Daghestan 1 place in the country for the production of cognac products.
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The strategic direction of development of the agrarian-industrial complex of Dagestan is rice farming: in terms of production (113 thousand tons) - 2 place in the country. One of the drivers of the growth of agriculture in Dagestan is greenhouse vegetables, where there are already more than 700 hectares of greenhouses of different formats - more than 21% of their total area in the country.
The Republic has a sufficiently developed system of transport infrastructure (road, rail, aviation, sea, pipeline), which plays a serious role in the transport and logistics complex of the entire south of Russia, as well as favoring its further expansion. The key object of the trans-port infrastructure of the North Caucasus is the Makhachkala Sea Trade Port - the only ice-free port of Russia in the Caspian Sea, favorably located in the area of international transport corridors "North - South", "East - Za-pad". In terms of retail trade turnover per capita, the republic occupies 45 place in the Russian Federation.
Dagestan is rightfully called a sports republic, a center for the preparation of a controversial reserve in the national teams of Russia by types of martial arts. In terms of the number of qualified Olympic and World Champions, the republic occupies advanced positions in the Russian Federation and surpasses more than a hundred states. Following the results of performance at all-Russian and international competitions, Dagestani sportsmen 2020 the City of Conquest 749 Medals, among them: 225 Gold, 216 Silver and 308 Bronze. At the last Olympics in Japan, Dagestani athletes won 10 Meda - lei: 4 Golden, 1 Silver and 5 Bronze, including Paralympics 1 Gold and three bronze medals. At the same time, in the development of game sports, the Republic of Da-gestan lags significantly behind the average Russian level.
The socio-economic potential of the region and its components are in constant variability. According to periodic scientific and expert estimates for a fairly long period (since the mid-2000-ies.) Republic of Dagestan has significant economic potential, which determines its place in the second or third ten among the regions of the country. In terms of socio-economic development, the region, on the contrary, has long been in the 7 or 8 among the subjects of the Russian Federation with a weak or low level of development.
Analysis of a wide range of indicators that determine the socio-economic situation of subjects and rating assessments of the level of development show that the republic is currently in the fifth ten among the regions of the country (RIA Rating – 49 Place by results 2020St Petersburg9). Summarizing rating estimates of the quality of life of the population in the region show the place of the region in the sixth ten among the subjects of the Russian Federation (RIA Rating – 56 Place by results 2020St Petersburg10).
As noted by the Head of the Republic of Dagestan. Melikov, in his speech to the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, "there is a cutting eye discrepancy between the huge potential of the republic and the depressing quality of life of Dagestanis. The conditions of a significant part of the inhabitants do not meet the minimum requirements of the civilization11.
Such a situation is the most eloquent evidence of the need to develop this Strategy in order to consistently resolve the main contradiction in the socio-economic development of the region: a deep gap between the existing regional and the quality of life of the population.
9 See https://riarating.ru/regions/20210531/630201367.html . 10 See https://ria.ru/20210215/kachestvo-zhizni-1597462656.html?in=t . 11
http://president.e-dag.ru/novosti/v-centre-vnimaniya/na-500-m-zasedanii-soveta-federatsii-fs-rf-
proshel-chas-respubliki-dagestan
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1.4. Key factors and opportunities for the development of the Republic of Dagestan
1.4.1. Internal potential of socio-economic development.
The results of the analysis, including SWOT and PEST analyses (see para. Annex 3) for the time being, that the main elements forming the internal potential of the socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan are the following:
1) population, numbering more than 3,13 million people, with a favorable sex-age structure and the prospect of further growth, mainly leading a healthy lifestyle, tolerant, with historically high patriotism and civic consciousness, entrepreneurial activity. These qualities can be strengthened by the development and implementation of measures aimed at encouraging and supporting general initiatives, promoting the development of small and medium-sized businesses.
2) significant operational reserves of natural resources (land, water, marine, biological, mineral, fuel and energy, tourism and recreation), which can be additionally involved in economic turnover. 3) economic and geographical advantages, expressed in a convenient transit location, proximity to the capacious consumer market of the South of the Russian Federation, the Caucasus and the Middle East, the presence of a long land border with the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Georgia with a relatively developed border infrastructure, as well as more 500 the kilometer coast of the Caspian Sea with access to the ports of the Caspian states from the cargo port Makhachkala International Airport (Uytash).
4) is a fairly diversified sectoral structure of the economy of investment-on-innovative type of development with the predominance of tertiary sectors (more than 40%).
5) relatively high level of development of housing and communal services, road transport, energy
Information and communication infrastructure.
6) the presence of agricultural, industrial, construction, trade and transport enterprises with production and technological competences and significance in the regional and Russian, individual - and international markets, with high potential and capacity to expand and increase the volume of production of goods and services, create new jobs, develop cooperation with small businesses.
7) agricultural land, a sufficient number of potential investment sites such as Greenfield and Brownfield, as well as unused land that can be involved in the circulation to expand the area of arable land, as well as the formation of attractive investment sites, including agro-industrial.
8) a relatively high level of development of the scientific and educational complex (including universities, secondary professional educational institutions, scientific organizations), which is the basis for training and providing existing and new enterprises with highly qualified personnel, as well as for the development of innovative activity;
9) high national-cultural, historical and spiritual-moral in the Tential of the Republic of Dagestan, the presence of a large number of monuments of history and culture. 10 significant potential for the development of interregional relations with the subjects of the Russian Federation of the North Caucasus Federal District and other subjects of the Russian Federation, as well as foreign economic relations and border economic cooperation (in the presence of related and divided peoples on both sides of the land border).
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The use of the existing internal potential of social and economic development of the Republic of Dagestan is associated with a number of restrictions that can be lifted due to the development and implementation of a set of relevant measures and projects:
1) a significant decrease in the dynamics of the main socio-economic indicators of the development of the region in the period compared with the dynamics of their development in 1999-2009. 2) decrease in the dynamics of population growth and the total fertility rate and the marriage rate, late marriage of young people, a change in the model of a large family, relatively high infant mortality.
3) high unemployment rate, growing demographic load, outflow of students and graduates, significant migration outflow of the most qualified personnel to other regions (mainly to Stavropol and Krasnodar Krai, Tyumen Region, St. Petersburg and Moscow) and abroad, reducing the quality of migration inflow to the region.
4) clan- and national-tumor nature of distribution of the main assets of the republic and spheres of business activity, building relations in many spheres of economy and management.
5) increased administrative and bureaucratic and corruption pressure on
population and business, a high proportion of the shadow economy.
6) insufficient development and unsatisfactory quality of infrastructure in the state and municipal districts in the Republic of Dagestan, a high level of depreciation of basic infrastructure facilities of federal, republican and local importance.
7) increase in environmental threats, pollution of the sea and the sea coast, desertification of agricultural land, increase in the volume of production and consumption waste with a low level of utilization and resupply, low quality of drinking water and water treatment in the settlements of the republic. 8) high tariffs for connection to networks with the existing shortage of energy capacities in cities and municipal districts of the Republic of Dagestan.
9) high level of depreciation of fixed assets, in particular the social sphere (housing and communal, road infrastructure in most urban and rural settlements), low availability of social infrastructure facilities, as well as low comfort of the urban environment.
10) a high share of agricultural production in private households, low level of commodity and technical and technological equipment, the continuing degradation of the industrial potential of the region, stagnation of the construction and transport industries, insufficient level of development of trade, public nutrition, paid services.
11) weak technical and technological equipment and a high level of wear and tear of the agricultural, industrial and social infrastructure, technological lag of most enterprises and industries, which necessitate the need for modernization. 12) presence of monoprofile municipalities with high risk
deterioration of the socio-economic situation.
13) unfavorable investment climate, low level of internal investment opportunities (sufficient savings of the population and economic entities, credit resources), financial and budgetary and organizational opportunities for effective use of available resources of the territory, modernization and structural changes of the economy, ensuring its sustainable growth and development.
14) insufficient level of economic relations and cooperation with subjects of the Russian Federation SKFO, foreign economic relations, use of transport and logistics opportunities.
15) low level of efficiency of the system of state, municipal and
Corporate Governance
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1.4.2. Major imbalances and imbalances in development.
Analysis of the main trends and problems of socio-economic development of Dagestan, assessment of the potential and limitations of its use allowed to reveal the following main imbalances and imbalances in development:
1) imbalance between the preferential orientation of the economy to the internal market of the republic with the supply of raw materials, materials and components for the production of goods and services from outside the region.
2) significant imbalance in production and consumption of fuel and energy
resources.
3) deep territorial differentiation of the level of socio-economic development: growing disparities in the level and dynamics of socio-economic development of individual municipalities, in the level and quality of life of urban and rural settlements.
4) the growth of environmental imbalances in the whole republic and in its separate territorial zones, including the sea and the sea coast, the growing problems with the collection, sorting, processing of MSW and industrial waste.
5) increase in the concentration of population, labor force and business entities in the for-peace Makhachkala agglomeration in combination with acceleration of depositing processes in remote parts of the republic, the formation of a trend towards the formation of a mo-nocentric region.
6) acute shortage of places in preschool institutions and general education schools, shortage of personnel in education and health care, low level of education and qualification of personnel.
7) growing competition for young professionals and qualified personnel from the Eastern mining regions, g. Moscow, Mt. St. Petersburg, the southern regions of Russia in terms of advantages in quality of life, opportunities for self-realization, comfort of the urban environment, quality of leisure, availability of modern places and level of wages.
8) imbalances between a significant number of the working population and the availability of jobs, the needs of the regional labor market and training profiles in higher and secondary vocational education, as well as between the requirements of employers for the quality of vocational training and the possibilities of educational institutions;
9) imbalance relatively high level of development of science and education in the public, on the one hand, and the level of interaction of educational and scientific organizations with enterprises of the real sector of the economy, on the other.
10) preservation of low budget security of the region and restrictions on the introduction and use of tax incentives for business and entrepreneurship, if it is necessary to implement an active investment policy and state support for investment and entrepreneurial activities.
11) the high role of small business and tourism in the creation of new jobs and
self-employment of the population with a large share of the shadow sector in these areas;
12) digital inequality availability of settlements, not provided with qualitative cellular communication and / or access to information and telecommunication network of the Internet, with the general high development of information and communication infrastructure in large cities.
13) weak development of interregional cooperation and negligible volumes of foreign trade in the presence of great opportunities for the development of cross-border trade and foreign economic activity in the presence of related peoples on both sides of the border, while maintaining strict regulatory regimes and tightening economic and other sectoral sanctions by foreign countries.
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14) infrastructural and institutional restrictions of interaction in the border zone with the Republic of Azerbaijan (the state of checkpoints and related infrastructure, transport infrastructure).
The main possibilities for removing the above restrictions and dispro-
Development portions include:
1) Ensure the planned levels of funding for national development goals and the corresponding national projects in the republic; implement the planned measures funded by the Republic of Dagestan’s budget and by federal and regional state programmes, including the Russian Federation’s state programme “Development of the North Caucasus Federal District” for the period up to 2025; and implement the measures proposed in Resolution No. 85-СФ of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, dated 17.03.2021, “On State Support for the Socioeconomic Development of the Republic of Dagestan”.
2) expansion of participation of the Republic of Dagestan in federal state programs, federal investment program with the concentration of resources and attention on several breakthrough infrastructure, economic and social projects that can provide a serious multiplier effect for the Republic of Dagestan, including in the field of agricultural and manufacturing development, transport infrastructure, tourism and recreation, Makhachkala agglomeration, coastal areas, coastal areas, coastal development. 3) active use of new tools of state support and development of individual territories, including the creation of territories of advanced socio-economic development, eco-industrial and agro-industrial parks, etc.
4) cardinal improvement of the quality of the regulatory environment and improvement of the investment climate, removal of administrative barriers and administrative pressure on business in general and, in particular, on small and medium-sized businesses, creation of favorable institutional conditions, development of a special infrastructure for supporting entrepreneurship;
5) restart of industrial and innovation policy of the region in combination with the development of new forms and tools of state support for investment projects, the creation and increase of the efficiency of regional development institutions;
6) implementation of major infrastructure projects, including modernization and development of the airport Makhachkala and Makhachkala seaport, construction of bypasses of the cities of Makhachkala, Derbent and Khasavyurt, modernization of transit federal highways, development of energy infrastructure and gasification, etc.;
7) reducing the energy deficit of the territory due to the use of energy-saving technologies in the region, modernization of the power grid and reduction of super-regulatory loss of electricity, construction of small hydropower plants, development of alternative and renewable energy (solar, wind and thermal energy), bioenergy, solving tariff problems (last mile and cross-subsidy) to launch projects in the field of other energy.
8) development of water treatment infrastructure and improvement of drinking water quality, improvement of the environment and public spaces to improve the comfort of living for the preservation and enhancement of human potential.
9) creation of conditions for the formation of the Republic of Dagestan as a center of ecological and health tourism of all-Russian significance, preservation of biodiversity and natural landscapes, involvement of specially protected territories and objects of regional significance in the development of the republic, the tourism sector.
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10) popularization and implementation of environmental programs aimed at the development of separate garbage collection, the development of waste processing enterprises and recycling of secondary raw materials.
11) overcoming the tendency to reduce the share of the younger generation and increase the share of older people in the workforce through the implementation of measures to strengthen qualified young personnel in the region.
12) the development of scientific and educational complex aimed at the formation of high-tech entrepreneurship and the preservation of highly qualified personnel, the formation of knowledge-intensive services in the field of health, recreation, information technologies.
13) technological modernization to increase the depth of processing of raw materials and production of finished consumer products by attracting, implementing and supporting investment projects aimed at creating the production of new types of products with high added value from local raw materials, the introduction of "green technologies" in industry.
14) formation of industry clusters (wine and cognac, glass, building materials, footwear, furniture, fisheries, tourism) through measures of state support, stimulation of cooperation processes and organization of joint productions, which will increase the intensity of resource use, competitiveness of products and services, concentrate production chains in the region and the added value produced by them.
15) promotion of products of Dagestan manufacturers under a unique trademark and through a single regional distributor, the organization of the supply of health and environmentally friendly products to the trade networks of large cities and countries.
16) development of interregional and international cooperation in the implementation of complex projects of environmental and tourist and recreational orientation, including interregional projects related to the development of tourism and recreation in the North Caucasus Federal District, on the coast of the Caspian Sea, in the mountain zone, etc.;
17) attraction of resources of cross-border and interregional cooperation at the federal, regional and local levels for the purpose of social and economic development of the territory, use of the potential of cross-border cooperation.
The population of the region is not satisfied with the quality of those services in which huge budget resources are directed. Among the most popular topics in the categories of "problems" and "needs" in the local print media are 2019-2020the Center for Management of the Region 2021 year unconditional "leaders" were water and electricity supply, garbage removal and disposal, health care, education and kindergartens, housing, dissatisfaction with the quality of roads, the population is not satisfied with the state of the house and yard areas, as well as the work of public transport.
1.4.3. Utilization of existing and creation of new advantages
The Republic of Dagestan is a priority geostrategic territory of the Russian Federation, an object of special attention of the federal center and a subject of the Russian Federation of a high level of interaction, which has a favorable geostrategic position, a natural geographical and transport corridor, a historically formed overflow of routes with the proximity of the main markets.
The Republic of Dagestan is a unique natural and historical-cultural territory, inhabited since ancient times, preserving ancient historical settlements and valuable monuments of history, archeology, architecture, culture, national diversity, folk crafts and its authenticity, with many natural features.
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The Republic has: a variety of biosystems, including the Caspian Sea, and the biodiversity of the territory; high potential of natural and climatic, water and recreational resources, allowing to create tourist territories of world importance).
The Republic of Dagestan is favored by its demographic features - the continuing growth of the population and a high proportion of the economically active population. The further development of the republic depends on the level and quality of education and health care, the creation of modern and high-paying jobs, and the provision of adequate monetary incomes of the population. Personal and business security, high environmental quality should be very significant regional advantages. These factors contribute to economic prosperity.
The future competitiveness of the Republic of Dagestan will be largely related to: the development and more efficient use of natural and socio-cultural resources - the level of opportunities is estimated as high; with a consistent improvement in the structure of the regional economy, the use of significant reserves of economic resources and the improvement of business administration and project management, regional planning; with the development of market infrastructure, effective regional industrial policy, the volume of state and private investment, the degree of development of small business;
Prospective innovative structure of the economy of the Republic of Dagestan with the development of education, science, innovation, the implementation of sustainable development principles and integration into the global information environment. The promising export-oriented structure of the economy of the Republic of Dagestan is associated with the development of relevant industries in the field of agriculture, industry, the consolidation of competitive producers into clusters, industry associations, the creation of new competitive sectors of the economy.
The socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan will largely depend on how widely banking, insurance, consulting, investment and other institutions will be represented - they contribute to the introduction of innovative ideas, flexibility and adaptability of the entire economic complex. The availability of high-quality modern communication lines, the development of regional computer networks and network platforms, free access to the Internet - these factors have now become of the same importance as at the beginning of the century for regional development were roads, energy supply.
Within the framework of this stage of strategic planning of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan, the possibilities of how to make the most of the strengths of the region, and the weak ones - to neutralize or turn into advantages are considered. In modern conditions, it is important to determine regional advantages not only in the production of tangible products, but also in the sphere of services with prospects for their export: consulting, auditing, information, education, medical and other services in modern conditions can contribute to increasing competitiveness and progressive regional development.
1.4.4. opportunities to accelerate economic growth.
the GRP of the Republic of Dagestan per capita 2019 the City Council 231,9 thousand rubles - a little more 1/3 from the same level on average in the country. Compared to the period 2000-2009 Average annual growth rate of GRP in 2010-2019G is down from 13,7% to 3,4%, Compared to the period 2010-2014the World of Arts 2015-2019G is down from 5,8% to 0,8%.
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Long-term growth slowdown may indicate achievement of
limits of growth of the current model of the economy of the Republic of Dagestan.
The stagnation (inhibition) of the economy of the Republic of Dagestan is also said: a) a significant drop in the growth rates of other main socio-economic indicators of the republic's development, starting from 2014 g; b) a decrease in the level of incomes of the population and economic entities, consumer and production demand, investment in fixed capital; c) low level of congestion of production capacities (at the same time, many investment projects over the years cannot reach the production stage and investment stage.
A significant factor in the slowdown of the republic's economy is also the low level of development of market segments of the economy, which does not allow to include significant amounts of resources in the economic turnover, attract investment, and develop priority economic complexes.
Currently, countries and regions of the post-cod world are actively searching for the paradigm of future development using mechanisms and tools of state strategic and indicative planning, with their spread to non-state segments of the economy. It is these approaches that have been implemented in the formation of Strategy-2030. They allow us to ensure balanced development, increase GRP and improve the standard of living of the population of the Republic of Dagestan.
This means that other key factors of economic growth come to the fore: increasing productivity and complexity of the economy, developing competencies, attracting private capital, creating export-oriented economies with high added value, increasing the operational efficiency of enterprises and industries, technological renewal and digitalization of all spheres of life and activities of people in the region.
In the new model of economic growth of the Republic of Dagestan, a special place is given to the promotion of competition and the leading role of private business. Competition will create incentives for the growth of productivity of enterprises, the development of competencies in the labor market, the creation of new jobs through the emergence of new enterprises. An additional factor of economic growth is the disclosure of the potential of the municipalities of the Republic of Dagestan. It is in the municipalities that land and property resources and human potential are concentrated. The involvement of local economic reserves and the improvement of human capital will allow, on the one hand, to maximize the volume of regional production and increase consumption markets, and on the other hand, to improve the quality of life of the population in municipalities. The development of tourism and export of products will expand the boundaries of the market, integrate into global value chains. Trade in foreign markets is not an incentive for increasing the competitiveness, complexity and diversification of the range of exported goods and services through competition with domestic and foreign producers.
The main directions (drivers) of qualitative growth of the economy
Dagestan faces, as follows:
- Increasing public investment in the region's infrastructure (should become a long-term trend, given the chronic underfunding in the past of the region's infrastructure development).
- Involvement in the economic turnover of additional resources and efficiency
the use of (land, water, mineral, fuel and energy).
- development of entrepreneurship, business, farming and development of cooperation;
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- effective tariff policy that stimulates investment attraction
It increases the competitiveness of production.
- placing orders on existing production facilities and increase
physical volume of output;
- improving the competitiveness of production, the implementation of substitution policies
Importation of goods and export promotion;
- project and investment activities, increasing investment in the main
Catering;
- increased use of corporate governance tools; - increased productivity, increased production efficiency; - increased income of the population and stimulation of demand in the regional market
consumption (taking into account the low income base, market volumes, long-term trend).
A key factor in the successful launch of new growth drivers in the economic sectors of the Republic of Dagestan is the creation of an effective system for attracting and retaining private investment and increasing technological competencies. In the modern world, it is impossible to ensure sustainable growth of a sufficiently large and diversified regional economy, such as the economy of the Republic of Dagestan, without the availability of appropriate human potential. With a population of more than 3 million people and maintaining the pace of its growth, creating appropriate conditions for human development, the Republic of Dagestan has good prospects for accelerating economic growth.
At present, transformations of a fundamental nature, both in the conditions of people’s lives, factors, processes and production results, and in global and regional markets, will be intensified in the planned period in the country and the world. These transformations are mainly related to the transition to the fourth industrial revolution and the sixth technological order, the tightening of environmental standards and the requirements of the “green economy”. Changes in the basis of social production will be accompanied by the intensification of world geopolitical processes, as well as the emergence of new political and social phenomena, not always and not everywhere leading to progress. At the same time, there is a danger: lagging countries and regions can forever be left behind in future development.
The world experience of management and economic practice demonstrates the new role of regions as subjects of strategic goal setting and locomotives of social and economic development of countries. This is no exception to the Russian Federation. At the same time, competition between regions within the country is increasing: visionary management teams strive to create appropriate conditions for attracting and developing human potential, business, investment, modern industries, tourism and recreation facilities. Strong regions succeed in this and become even richer.
With the high turbulence of processes and uncertainty of the future, knowledge of strategic prospects allows regions to outline their own future, choose the right directions, focus resources and main efforts on them, and reduce risks. Since the initial conditions of the regions sometimes differ significantly, the recipes for choosing strategies may not be the same.
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II. STRATEGIC TREATMENT
2.1. Mission of the Republic of Dagestan
The mission of the Republic of Dagestan in a narrow sense - as an idea (vision) of its socio-economic development, proceeds from long-term regional and federal strategic priorities and beyond the horizon of the Strategy-2030, goals and objectives of development, taking into account the unique features of the republic, its resource potential, historical role and place in the North Caucasus Federal District and the Russian Federation, as well as in the interregional and international division of labor.
1.The mission of the region consists of economic, socio-cultural and environmental components, ensuring an effective and dynamic combination of them, improving the territorial (spatial) and sectoral development of the region, as well as observing state and regional interests.
2.Economic development is one of the main components of the mission of the region, on which the solution of many other problems (social, demographic, national-cultural, etc.) depends, increasing the investment attractiveness and competitiveness of the region.
3.The social mission of the region is aimed at solving social problems and raising the standard of living of the population of the region, has a decisive impact on the development, without the participation of which any transformations of any direction in regions of different taxonomic rank are impossible.
4.The cultural mission of the region expresses the socio-cultural community of the population of the region and the country, is aimed at preserving and developing cultural identity, the fullest satisfaction of cultural (material, spiritual) needs of the city.
5.The environmental mission of the region characterizes the development and use of its native potential, the state of biosystems, as well as the level of environmental measures.
Taking into account the Strategy of Spatial Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, in brief, the long-term socio-economic mission of the Republic of Dagestan can be formulated:
1.Dagestan is a priority geostrategic territory of the Russian Federation and a key center of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the south of the country with a unique natural resource, historical, cultural and spiritual-moral nature, the most important demographic, scientific, educational, agrarian-industrial, transport and logistics, tourist and recreational functions, functions in the field of public health protection.
2.Dagestan is the territory of ensuring a decent level and quality of life of the population, sustainable economic, socio-cultural and environmental development, preservation and enhancement of spiritual and moral traditions, culture and national wealth of the peoples of Dagestan, including for their transmission to future generations.
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2.2. Scenarios of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan in 2021-2030gg
The main options for the long-term socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan are determined by the level of development and intensity of the impact of the following key factors in their various combinations:
- the state of the macroeconomic situation in the country and the world; - the development of the human potential of the Republic of Dagestan (demography, health protection, education, employment and income of the population, cultural level and creative abilities, housing and habitat, etc.);
- the volume of investment in the development of the economy and the social sphere -
gion;
- the speed of change in the quality of the environment and activities, modernization and overcoming restrictions in infrastructure sectors (energy, transport, housing and communal services, etc.);
- the degree of development and realization of the competitive advantages of the region in the natural resource and historical and cultural potential, agriculture, industrial production, construction, trade and paid services, transport and logistics, tourism and recreation in the regional, domestic and world markets;
- dynamics of innovative and digital renewal of industries and spheres of economy,
technological processes, labor productivity;
- increasing trust and social justice in society; - the level of legitimation of the rights of ownership, use and disposal in matters of social security;
Melno-property relations;
- Development of institutions that determine business and investment
activity, intensity of interregional and foreign economic relations;
- the effectiveness of state and municipal management and the quality of
Interaction with civil society institutions. The socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan is projected under three scenarios. The possibility of a conservative scenario is based on the assumption of an unfavorable development of events in the world and domestic economy (prolonged crisis and stagnation, extension and further tightening of the sanctions regime in relation to the country's economy and activities in foreign markets, acceleration of inflationary processes, destabilization of the situation in neighboring states and nearby regions of the world, etc.), which can lead to a limitation of the volume of federal support, attracted resources. In these conditions, there is a high probability of the absence of positive transformations and stagnation in the economy of the republic, the actual preservation of its existing structure, and regional policy will be focused mainly on maintaining the stability of the socio-economic situation in the republic and leveling the negative impact of external non-economic factors. The scenario is characterized by a lack of growth or little sense of growth in private investment and the introduction of innovative technologies, low rates of labor productivity growth, a further reduction in the lag of quality indicators of living standards of the population from the average Russian indicators, and weak demand in domestic and foreign markets will have a restraining effect on the development of industries. In view of the limited budget resources, the development of infrastructure and bring it to a normative state will be extended beyond the strategic mountain-umbrella. However, social obligations will be largely met through the federal centre.
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Under this scenario, if current demographic trends continue, the population growth rate will decrease, migration outflows will increase, and a slight increase in GRP will be combined with crisis declines. In the future, this prospect is not considered as a possible development scenario of the Republic of Dagestan, since the sixteen-year-old (taking into account the 2015- 2020The period of stagnation is a very unlikely event, especially after the recent crisis 2020 years. At the same time, within the framework of the Strategy, a new crisis at the border is allowed 2023-2024Total expenditure Such a development in its recent forecast assumes the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as a consequence of unprecedented quantitative easing of monetary policy by central banks of the leading countries of the world during the period of “coherent” restrictions.
The moderate-optimistic (or Basic) scenario is based on favorable conditions of macroeconomic functioning (with minor fluctuations) and a gradual increase in current positive trends. The scenario is aimed at improving the use of natural opportunities and internal resources of the Republic of Dagestan (geographical differences, natural and climatic factors, minerals, recreational resources) and at the priority development of the infrastructure, agro-industrial and resort-recreational complexes, characterized by an increase in the investment and innovation orientation of the economic growth rate, while the growth rate of the main indicators will be average 10-15 years. The scenario assumes overcoming crisis phenomena in the medium-term period and ensuring the regulatory state of infrastructure, using the national projects, it is also assumed a gradual transition to a new model of development of the country and the region. Under this scenario, the modernization of social infrastructure is being laid, which will provide conditions for improving the quality of human capital and living standards of the population. The scenario is also based on more optimistic assumptions regarding the dynamics of indicators of the natural movement of the population of the republic and migration outflow - the population of the Republic of Dagestan will increase at a pace close to the current one: 0,7-0,8% Annually and at the end 2030 G will 3359 thousands of people, and taking into account the relocation of the Caspian flotilla – 3392 Thousands of people The quality of public services and the effectiveness of public administration in general will also be improved. The key components of the Basic scenario are the implementation of national projects of the Russian Federation in the territory of the RD; growth in the number and welfare of the population; ensuring the normal state of infrastructure; moderate economic growth based on the agricultural and service and recreational potential at the current level (or some improvement) of investment growth and budget and financial support for federal prices. The GRP will increase the average annual rate of the index of physical volume in 6,22%, including: 2021-2024Gov – 5,5%, 2025-2030Gov – 6,7%.
The optimistic scenario is characterized by the intensification of economic growth factors and the stability of the dynamics of positive changes in the macroeconomic situation. It involves the transition to a new model of economy and management at a faster pace, the intensification of investment and innovation, spatial and environmental development, accelerated digital transformation of the regional economy. It is the best option to achieve the established priorities and goals of socio-economic development of the Dagestani Republic, and was called the Target scenario of the Strategy of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan for the period up to 2030.
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The essence of the target scenario - Basic scenario + Mobilization of internal sources + large-scale federal support; outstripping economic growth by a new effective use of the existing human, investment, innovation, management and integration potential of the republic with large-scale financial and investment support of the federal center and the implementation of breakthrough projects for the development of the republic. In the process of implementation of the Target scenario, large-scale attraction of federal and private investments will lead to the modernization and development of social and industrial infrastructure, as well as sectors of the republic's economy. New industries and export-oriented production will be created. The development of human potential, the use of innovative and digital technologies will contribute to the effective use of the region's resources and the growth of labor productivity. The qualitative change in the living and working environment, as well as the modernization and expansion of infrastructure, contribute to improving the level of economic development, improving transport accessibility and connectivity of the region and municipalities. In order to ensure the adequate functioning and development of the republic, the regional administration system will exercise its powers in such a way that all the processes taking place in it are carried out in a timely, qualitative and effective manner. The scenario involves the use of new advanced state and public management principles, and technologies focused on the final result and effective management of financial, material and human resources, including the project approach, effective cooperation of public authorities and civil society in matters of socio-economic development of the region. The scenario is based on the full implementation of all the goals and objectives set in the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation on 21 July 2020 № 204 On national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 of the year”, the opportunities provided by the implementation of other federal and regional strategic documents, including the Strategy of the NCFD-2035. At the same time, at the start of the Strategy, the Republic of Dagestan considers it expedient to adopt a more “supplied” federal regional policy with a “pull-up” of the standard of living of the population of the region and a set of measures to stimulate structural changes. As the region is ready to scale up transformation processes, the most significant effect will be a powerful federal "investment intervention", i.e. the implementation of large-scale investment projects of both production and infrastructure nature within the Republic of Dagestan (SKFO). The target scenario is characterized by more favorable demographic trends in combination with high quality parameters of the standard of living of the population. Population by end 2030The target scenario is expected at the level of 3440 Thousands of people GRP will increase at an average annual rate 8,8%, in 2021-2024Gov – 7,17%, 2025-2030Gov – 9,97%.
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