Finance, funds and analytics

1. Executive summary

Over the 30-year horizon, the state corporate sector of Russia has gone from fragmented management of strategic assets to large integrated contours that can simultaneously solve production, infrastructure, defense, financial and technological problems.

The form “state corporation” was enshrined in law in 1999. The main wave of institutional formation occurred in 2003–2009 years, and the subsequent period was characterized by asset consolidation, import substitution, growth of investment role and transition to technological sovereignty.

The key conclusion: further growth of the effect requires not an increase in the number of state corporations, but a transition from isolated corporate strategies to a single inter-corporate balance of the country: resources → Technology → Personnel → Power → Infrastructure → Markets → social result → environmental effect → feedback.

2. Periodization 1996–2025

3. Actual anchors of the current state

• Rostec: consolidated revenue for 2024 year — 3,61 trillion RUB; net profit — 131,5 billion RUB; investments — 676 billion RUB; civil revenue - about 1,1 trillion RUB, the share of civil products — 30,7%. [1]
• ROSATOM: IFRS revenue for 2024 year — 3 087,7 billion RUB; adjusted free cash flow — 445,4 billion RUB; intangible assets — 349,5 billion Rub. [2]
• Rosatom provides about 19% Energy balance of Russia; in 2024 the Nuclear Power Plant 215,5 billion KW·h. [2][3]
• VEB.RF continues to perform the function of a state development corporation and publishes annual and issuer reports; its effect as a project multiplier is important for the national balance sheet, and not only its own profit. [4]
• The sector is heterogeneous: it includes industrial and technological corporations, development institutions, insurance/liquidation institutions and state-owned infrastructure companies; they cannot be correctly compared only by profit.

4. What exactly should be considered the “balance of state corporations”

It is proposed to move from the accounting view to 9-contour state balance:

• 1. Financial - assets, debt, cash flow, dividends, budget support, the cost of capital.
• 2. Production - capacity, loading, performance, critical equipment, repair cycle.
• 3. Technological - R&D, patents, NMA, localization level, technological readiness, import dependence.
• 4. Personnel - number, lack of competencies, engineering schools, productivity, age structure.
• 5. Material - raw materials, rare and rare earth materials, ceramics, synthetic crystals, composites, semiconductor materials.
• 6. Infrastructure - energy, transport, communications, computing, logistics, housing and areas of presence.
• 7. Territorial - the effect on regions, monotowns, agglomerations, Siberia, the Far East, the Arctic.
• 8. Ecological - resource efficiency, waste, water, air, soil, ecosystem restoration.
• 9. Meaningful / strategic - compliance with national goals, sovereignty, demography, quality of life and long-term civilization project.

5. Diagnostics 30-year balance

6. Exits to the New Order

The New Order is a transition from managing individual legal entities to constructing integrated national reproduction frameworks. The key object of management is not the corporation in isolation, but the chain “need → resource → technology → production → infrastructure → person → territory → result”.

1. Unified state balance of state corporations. Combine strategies, investment programs, R&D, procurement, personnel, infrastructure and territorial effects into one system of indicators.

2. Inter-corporate technology chains. Create a register of critical dependencies and mutual supplies: materials, machine tools, microelectronics, software, energy, logistics.

3. National outline of materials science. Combine metals, ceramics, synthetic crystals, composites and functional materials with real corporate orders and academic science.

4. Computational grid. General high-performance computing, engineering modeling, AI, digital twins and federated databases.

5. The system of funds and long capital. Divide working, investment, technological, infrastructure, personnel and reserve capital; evaluate the fund by the effect created.

6. production consortia. Instead of duplicating capacities, joint use of test centers, polygons, laboratories, supercomputers and pilot industries.

7. Balance of territories. Link corporate programs to master plans of cities and regions, infrastructure, housing, education, ecology and demography.

8. Bicentennial standard. Each major project should consider not only the financial NPV, but also the balance of water, air, soil, biodiversity, waste and environmental health.

9. The feedback loop. Real-time performance: deviation → reason → solution → resource → Responsible → Term → Confirmed effect.

7. The architecture of the state metabalance

National objectives and security

↓ 19 industry/functional balance sheets

↓ State Corporations and State Companies

↓ Development institutions and banks

↓ Academic and applied science

↓ Regions and cities of presence

↓ Suppliers and SMEs

↓ Digital monitoring system

↓ Contour of decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation

8. Road map 2026–2030

9. New Order KPI System

• The share of critical chains with proven technological independence.
• The coefficient of inter-corporate use of production and scientific capacities.
• The proportion of investments that have been evaluated by an intersectoral multiplier.
• Term "R&D → prototype → series".
• Share of domestic materials, equipment, software and computing infrastructure.
• Productivity and availability of key engineering competencies.
• Regional effect: employment, income, infrastructure, quality of the urban environment.
• Environmental impact on the unit of value added created.
• Percentage of indicators available in quick feedback mode.

10. Final conclusion

The main result of 30 years: Russia has formed large state corporate cores capable of holding strategic industries and concentrating resources.

The main task of the next cycle is to turn a collection of strong corporations into a connected system of national reproduction. The New Order begins where the corporate balance becomes part of the country’s balance, and investment decisions take capital, technology, materials, personnel, territory, ecology and long-term sovereignty into account together.

Sources and methodological notes

[1] GC "Rostec". Results of work for 2024 Year, Message from 10.06.2025: Consolidated revenue 3,61 trillion RUB, net profit 131,5 billion Rubles, investments 676 billion RUB, the share of civil products 30,7%.

[2] GC "Rosatom". Strategic report for 2024 year: IFRS revenue 3 087,7 billion RUB, adjusted free cash flow 445,4 billion rub., NMA 349,5 billion rub.

[3] GC "Rosatom". Public Reporting: Nuclear Power Generation in 2024 the Year 215,5 billion KW·h; the share of nuclear energy in the energy balance of Russia 19%.

[4] VEB.RF. Section of disclosure and reports of the issuer for 2024–2025 years.

[5] Federal Law of 12.01.1996 № 7-FZ About non-profit organizations, article 7.1 "State Corporation" is introduced by the Federal Law of 08.07.1999 № 140-FZ.

Methodology: Integral indices and target scores in charts are author's analytical scale for comparing institutional maturity; they are not official government statistics. The financial performance of different corporations is not aggregated mechanically due to differences in objectives, reporting standards, consolidation and legal form.

Analysis of the balance of state corporations for 30 years

NMA: world experience of assessment and accounting - international standards, corporate practice and conclusions for Russia

Executive summary

The target audience of the report: state bodies of the Russian Federation, state property management bodies, large state corporations and companies with state participation, development institutions, industry regulators, financial directors, strategy services, evaluation, internal control and intellectual property management.

The main conclusion of the study: in the world economy, a gap has formed between the economic significance of intangible capital and its visibility in the balance sheet. HMA in the strict accounting sense is only part of the wider intangible capital: significant investments in organizational capital, data, brands, human capital, design, business processes and part of digital resources are not recognized as assets under the current rules. This gap is one of the reasons why IASB with 2024 the Year of Comprehensive Review IAS 38; in July 2026 The Board continued to discuss, inter alia, the definition of IA, SaaS, software, and new types of intangible resources, while without making final decisions1]

The scale of the problem is already macroeconomic. According to evaluation WIPO and London Business School, in a sample of 29 The economy, which is about 57% Global GDP, investments in intangible assets in 2025 the Year of Over $10 trillion In real terms for 2008–2025 The years have grown on average by about 3,5% Each year, approximately 3,6 times faster than material investments; the aggregate intensity of intangible investments has reached 12,8% GDP vs 11,8% GDP is material. [2]

However, the balance sheet does not reflect all this capital. The international statistical tradition, which dates back to the work of Corrado-Hulten-Sichel, includes not only non-material investments in R&D and software, but also organizational capital, design, marketing assets and a number of other competencies. It is this expanded approach that is used by the modern Global database INTAN-Invest WIPO. [3]

IFRS/IAS 38 b) builds recognition on identity and control: an IA is an identifiable non-monetary asset without physical form; it must be separable or arise from contractual or other legal rights. Among the typical objects IASB names software, licenses, trademarks, patents, films and copyrights. Own brands, publishing names, client lists and similar independently created objects IAS 38 It is forbidden to capitalize.]4]

US GAAP more conservative than most R&D: Topic 730 Requires, as a rule, to write off the costs of research and development in costs as they arise; there are special models for software. Acquired in business combinations identifiable IAs, by contrast, are recognised separately from goodwill by acquisition-date fair value. V September 2025 years FASB Gaz ASU 2025-06 internal-use software, and the issues of internally created NMA continue to be in the field of work FASB. [5]

The EU for consolidated statements of companies whose securities are traded in regulated markets uses the EU-approved IFRS; the mandatory regime has been in force for the relevant consolidated statements since 2005. In addition, Accounting Directive regulates national regimes: for example, it allows the capitalization of development costs in cases provided for by national law, and provides depreciation solutions for goodwill and development costs. [6]

China is a particularly interesting example for Russia, as it complements the classical regulation of IA with a special data resources regime. CAS 6 divides research and development: the research stage is related to expenses, and development stage costs can be recognized as an asset if the established conditions are met. With 1 January 2024, there are temporary rules for the accounting reflection of corporate data resources, including the disclosure of resources that have not met the criteria for recognition as an asset. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China is developing a standardized data assets assessment infrastructure - a library of standards, rules, indicators, models and cases. [7]

For M&A, the value of HMA is particularly high. The buyer recognizes those assets that the seller may not have at all on the balance sheet. Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard has resulted in a final purchase price $75,408 billion: $21,969 billion were assigned to identifiable IAs and $51,001 billion — on goodwill. From NMA $11,619 billion the Marketing-related Assets, $9,689 billion — technology-based and $0,661 billion — customer-related. [8]

This means that two economically similar companies — one grown organically, the other collected through acquisitions — can demonstrate significantly different accounting values of IA. This asymmetry is already at the heart of the discussion at IASB: the Council is explicitly addressing the issue of comparability internally generated and acquired intangible assets. [9]

Assessment of IA in international practice is based on three families of approaches: market, income and cost. IFRS 13 directly considers market, income and cost approaches as widely used valuation techniques; IVS provides an international professional assessment infrastructure. For brands usually used relief-from-royalty, for customer relations and key technologies — MPEEM, for contracts and non-compete — with-and-without, for licenses sometimes greenfield; for reproducible software systems and databases, replacement-cost approach is applicable10]

For Russia, the key conclusion is not to mechanically capitalize all intangible costs, but to create a two-circuit system:

Contour A — regulated balance sheet: FSBU 14/2022, tax accounting, audit, evaluation, impeachment, legally proven rights.
Contour B is a management register of intangible capital: R&D, patents, technologies, software, data, models AI, know-how, organizational capital, competencies, client/partner networks, licenses, digital twins and other resources - including those that cannot be recognized as accounting NMAs.

Such an architecture preserves the reliability of financial reporting, but eliminates the strategic “invisibility” of resources. In Russia, the basic regulatory platform already exists: FSBU 14/2022 It is required starting with the reporting of 2024 year, and FSO XI regulates the valuation of intellectual property and IA. Therefore, the task 2026–2030 The first is the integration of accounting, valuation, legal, technological and management contours, rather than the creation of another isolated standard11]

The economic nature of IA and the classification system

The terms “intangible asset”, “intellectual property” and “intangible capital” are not synonymous.

Po IAS 38 An IA is an identifiable non-monetary asset without a physical substance. Identity exists if the asset is separable — that is, potentially sold, transferred, or licensed — or arises from contractual or other legal rights12]

Intellectual property represents the legal category of rights - patents, trademarks, copyrights, industrial designs, trade secrets and other protected results. Not every economically valuable IA is a registered IP, and the registered right itself does not guarantee a significant economic value.

Intangible capital is a broader economic category. The modern macroeconomic tradition of Corrado-Hulten-Sichel extends the investment concept beyond accounting IAs, including knowledge, organizational competencies and other resources that can create a future release. This approach became the basis of subsequent international research into intangible investment. [3]

Working classification for public and corporate governance

It is therefore critical to separate the three perimeters: legally protected rights, accounting IAs and economic intangible capital. Their crossing is incomplete. IAS 38, For example, it explicitly excludes recognition of self-created brands, mastheads, publishing titles, and customer lists, although they may have obvious economic value13]

Therefore, the value of "NMA in the balance sheet" can not be used as a direct indicator of the technological or intellectual potential of the enterprise. This is particularly significant when comparing an organic business with a company actively acquiring technology through M&A. IASB addresses this issue in the framework of the ongoing project on Intangible Assets. [9]

International standards of recognition, accounting and taxation

Comparison of main systems

Sources of comparative table: IASB by IAS 38, IAS 36, IFRS 3 and the current Intangible Assets project; FASB by Topics 730/805 and ASU 2025-06; EU Regulation 1606/2002 and Accounting Directive; the Ministry of Finance of China CAS 6 and data resources; The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the official portal of legal information on the FSBU 14/2022 and FSO XI. [14]

IFRS: recognition, subsequent evaluation and disclosure

IAS 38 allows the recognition of only an identifiable resource that meets the requirements of the standard. For internally generated assets, the costs must be divided into research phase and development phase. Development can be capitalized only after meeting the established criteria, including technical feasibility, intent and the ability to complete the development/use or sell the result and the ability to reliably measure the costs involved. Own brands and client lists are not subject to capitalization. [15]

Once recognised, end-of-life assets are systematically depreciated over that period and are tested against impeachment on appropriate grounds. Assets with an indefinite period are not depreciated, but are subject to annual impairment checks. Similarly, goodwill and HMAs not yet available for use are tested annually. [16]

IAS 36 defines recoverable amount as the largest of fair value less costs of disposal and value in use. Consequently, an impairment is not an accounting formality, but a new assessment of an asset's ability or cash-generating unit to maintain its carrying amount. [17]

Of particular importance is IFRS 3: in M&A, the acquirer must separate the identifiable intangible assets from the goodwill. That is why a brand, technology or customer relationship that was not in the balance sheet of the acquired company can appear on the balance sheet of the buyer for the first time. [18]

US GAAP

US GAAP different from IFRS Especially with my R&D. Topic 730 The R&D costs are deducted as they arise FASB Historically, it explains uncertainty of future benefits, measurability problems, and weak direct correlation between the size of today's costs and future economic outcome19]

There is a more fragmented system. For software to be sold/leased/marketed, the costs before reaching the technological functionality are on R&D expense, after reaching the functionality and before the general release are capitalized. For internal-use software, Subtopic is used 350-40; in 2025 the Year FASB completed the corresponding project ASU 2025-06. [20]

In business combination, the American model, on the contrary, requires the recognition of identifiable assets and liabilities and the evaluation of the corresponding acquired HMA separately from goodwill. [21]

For public companies, goodwill is not systematically depreciated, but is tested on an impeachment-level reporting unit; FASB also provides an annual impeachment model for indefinite-lived intangible assets. [22]

European Union

Regulation No 1606/2002 has formed the European infrastructure for the application of international standards: the relevant public groups use IFRS, approved by the EU, for consolidated reporting. The current codification of approved international standards is contained, inter alia, in Regulation (EU) 2023/1803 with subsequent amendments. [23]

For companies located outside the corresponding IFRS-perimeter, Accounting Directive 2013/34/EU plays an essential role. It requires the systematic write-off of IA during a useful economic life and provides for national development cost decisions; if the term goodwill or development cost cannot be reliably determined, the Member State shall fix the period within the range permitted by the Directive. [24]

EFRAG has repeatedly fixed a more fundamental problem: the current system does not display a significant part of internally generated signals, which reduces the comparability of asset-light and knowledge-intensive companies. [25]

China

CAS 6 was published in 2006 Year and put into operation with 1 January 2007. The Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China confirms the strict boundary between research and development: the costs of the research stage are recognized in the current result, and the costs of the development stage are capitalized only if the criteria of the standard are met; previously written-off costs cannot be retroactively restored as an asset26]

Especially important is the Chinese experiment with data as a managed economic resource. Temporary rules on enterprise data resources were published in August 2023 years and came into force 1 January 2024. They apply to data resources that meet recognition requirements, including as IAs or stocks, and provide for additional disclosure of controlled data resources that may generate economic benefits but have not been recognized due to non-compliance with criteria27]

In 2024, the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China demanded the development of a data assets evaluation system and directly designated the creation of a standard library, rule library, indicator library, model library and case library, as well as the use of digital technologies to predict their cost. This is no longer just an accounting standard, but an element of the industrial policy of intangible capital management. [28]

Timeline for regulatory development

Key Stages - Formation IAS 38, US Transition GAAP to impeachment-only goodwill, European mandatory application IFRS, CAS 6, the Russian FSBU 14/2022, Chinese data resources regulations and current revision IAS 38. [29]

On 30 August 2026 new edition IAS 38 Not yet accepted: 22 July 2026 IASB discussed potential changes to the definition and supporting requirements, using licensing/SaaS as a test case, but no decisions were made on the standard at that time. Therefore, organizations should not prematurely build accounting on the proposed future model IASB. [30]

Tax implications

The accounting value of IA and the tax base of IA can vary significantly, creating temporary differences and deducted tax on IAS 12. In M&A transactions, this is particularly noticeable: the fair-value step-up of the acquired IA is able to simultaneously form a deferred tax liability, which in turn affects the amount of goodwill. [31]

Sources: IRS on ?197 and ?174A, tax authorities of China, European Commission and Federal Tax Service of Russia. [32]

It is especially important for Russia that the 1 January 2025 The FTS points to the possibility of taking into account double the cost when forming the initial cost of certain high-tech NMAs, including exclusive rights to Russian software / databases and the results of research and development provided for by law; the application of the corresponding option should be fixed in the tax accounting policy33]

Valuation methods, depreciation, impairment and disclosure

Evaluation architecture

IFRS 13 establishes the general principle of fair value as a market valuation and distinguishes three widely used valuation approaches: market approach, income approach and cost approach. International standards for evaluation IVS provide a professional methodology for their application; current edition IVS has been updated in 2024 the Year of Application 2025 year, and in 2026 the Year IVSC Continued development IVS 210 Intangible Assets. [34]

It is important to distinguish:

the cost for financial statements, determined within IFRS/US GAAP;

market/fair value for M&A or independent valuation;

investment/strategic value to a specific owner;

tax value;

value-in-use or strategic value.

They don't have to match.

Comparison of approaches and methods

IFRS 13 explicitly allows for market, cost, and income approaches, but does not prescribe one universal method for IA. The choice of method is determined by the characteristics of the asset and the availability of data. In practice PPA The Big Four is widely described RFR, MPEEM, with-and-without and greenfield as options for a profitable approach to acquired intangible assets35]

Notes on basic methods

Relief-from-Royalty. Simplified conceptual formula:

where is the applicable tax effect, the discount rate, and terminal value is allowed only where it is compatible with the economic term of the asset. The method treats value as the present value of hypothetical royalty payments that the owner avoids by owning the object. [36]

Critical Assumptions: forecast revenue, royalty benchmark, legal territory of law, remaining useful life, tax rate, discount rate, competitive obsolescence.

MPEEM.

where is the contribution asset charges for the use of other resources, without which the estimated NMA would not create cash flow.

The key risk is to incorrectly attribute an excessively large portion of the return to one intangible asset or to double-count the benefits in multiple assets. That's why MPEEM is most appropriate for a single dominant income-generating asset rather than multiple interdependent IAs at the same time. Practice PPA The Big Four MPEEM, In particular, customer relationships, technologies and IPR&D. [37]

With-and-Without.

The method requires a realistic counterfactual scenario. When evaluating a non-compete, license or customer relationship, it is not necessary to model the “disappearance of the whole company”, but rather the economic consequence of the absence of a specific right.

Cost Approach. For software IFRS 13 illustrates the logic of current replacement cost: how much would a market participant today pay for the creation of a substitute asset comparable utility adjusted for functional/economic absolutes38]

That’s why the cost approach is especially useful for infrastructure software, datasets or libraries, but much weaker for the brand: a brand worth billions can be created by historical expenses that do not themselves explain the future premium margin.

Brands & ISO 10668

ISO 10668 sets the framework for monetary brand valuation: the purpose of the assessment, the basis, the approaches, the methods, the quality of the data and the requirements for the report. V 2026 the Year ISO It is also working to update the relevant standardization, which reflects the growing importance of brand valuation39]

Useful life and depreciation

The economic term of an IA is not determined solely by the legal term of protection. It should take into account the technological cycle, customer behavior, likelihood of replacement, competition, maintenance extenditure, contractual constraints, and the ability of the enterprise to continue to benefit.

For rapidly aging algorithms or technologies, economic life can be much shorter than the patent term; on the contrary, a trademark can legally be renewed repeatedly, which, under appropriate circumstances, can support indefinite-life assessment.

At Microsoft, after the purchase of Activision Blizzard, the final PPA gave sharply different terms: marketing-related intents - 24, technology-based - 4, customer-related - 4. This is a clear example of why a single "normative term of the NMA" is economically incorrect. [40]

Impairment as an area of assessed risk

Impairment is particularly sensitive to:

• revenue forecasts and margins;
• discount rate/WACC;
• long-term growth rate;
• probability of successful development;
• Regulatory approval period;
• market share and churn;
• technological substitution;
• royalty rates and useful lives.

Pfizer, for example, has an impairment of 2023 The year included about $2,8 billion, including $1,4 billion by IPR&D etrasimod and $964 Million by developed technology rights Prevnar 13; Reasons included changes in development plans, revenue expectations, transition to vaccines with wider coverage, and competitive pressures41]

Disclosure

A good disclosure of an IA should answer not only the question “how much is an asset on the balance sheet?” but at least five questions:

What is this resource → why is it controlled → as the value of → will last economic life → what assumptions can cause impeachment.

It is advisable for state corporations to go beyond the minimum requirements of accounting standards and disclose administratively significant data on patent families, technologies, software, data assets, critical know-how, terms of legal protection, monetization models, licensing, dependence on key specialists and cybersecurity - subject to the regime of state, commercial and technological secrecy.

Corporate practices, industries and impact on M&A

Cases of transnational companies

Sources for Microsoft, Pfizer, Disney, and industry model extractive industries. [42]

Microsoft also has a direct impact PPA for subsequent profit: depreciation intangible assets in fiscal 2025 Imprint $6,0 billion, Against $4,8 billion in 2024 and $2,5 billion in 2023. This means that the distribution of purchase price between amortised NMA and goodwill directly changes the post-deal learnings profile43]

Goodwill by Activision $51,001 billion and, as explained by Microsoft, was mainly related to the expected integration of synergies; almost all of this goodwill company considered not subject to tax deduction. This clearly shows that goodwill is not just a “bad value detail” but a residue that includes synergistic effects that are not separately identifiable by the IA44]

Technology sector

It is dominated by:

Software and algorithms; databases; patents; trained models and model-related know-how; developer ecosystems; customer relations; cloud/SaaS contractual rights; brand; organizational know-how.

The main accounting problem is the gap between value creation and capitalization. The huge costs of developers and research can immediately reduce profits, while the acquisition of similar technology through M&A creates an identical intuitive asset. FASB and IASB both continue to work on software/intangibles; IASB specifically considers agile development, cloud/SaaS, AI and data as test cases of modernity45]

For the state, this means that the balance sheet of a state-owned IT company cannot be the only source of assessment of its technological capital.

Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology

Critical NMAs: patents, compound rights, licenses, IPR&D, regulatory dossiers, developed technology, trademarks.

A unique feature is the optional and probabilistic nature of value. The drug may have a huge expected value before the end of the tests, but this cost is determined by the probabilities of transition between phases, the period before launch, patent exclusivity, pricing/reimbursement and competitive landscape.

The Pfizer case demonstrates this volatility: the adjustment of development plans and commercial forecasts can cause billions of dollars of influence charges. [41]

For the evaluation of pharmaceutical IPR&D, therefore, probability-adjusted DCF/rNPV is more useful than the mechanical capitalization of historical R&D cost.

Media and entertainment

Critical objects: content libraries, copyrights, character franchises, brands, distribution rights, subscriber/customer relationships.

Here, the main risk is not physical wear and tear, but a change in the mode of consumption. Disney has already fixed major impeachment charges as during COVID-19, and later in linear entertainment46]

The cost of a media asset should therefore be associated with an active audience, engagement, retention, monetization per user, licensing potential, and realigning economic relevance of content.

Energy

In the energy sector, a significant part of the intangible economy is distributed among several standards: mineral/exploration rights, licenses, concessions, seismic/geological data, patents, software, control algorithms, grid models, customer contracts, carbon-related rights.

IFRS 6 specifically regulates exploration and evaluation expansion; the costs of development mineral resources already come out of this perimeter and interact with others IFRS, including IAS 38 where appropriate. This makes the energy sector a good example of why a single corporate register of intangible capital should be wider than one accounting line "MA"47]

For Russia, this is especially important for geological data, subsoil use licenses, technological models of production, software, digital twins of deposits, proprietary process know-how and R&D results.

HMA in M&A: systemic effect

Simplified purchase price allocation can be represented as:

taking into account other assets, liabilities, deferred taxes and the requirements of the applicable standard.

Therefore, the assessment of IA changes simultaneously:

goodwill cost; future depreciation; EBIT/operating profit; deferred tax; future impeachment risk; ROA/ROIC; post-merger KPI.

This creates a conflict of incentives. Other things being equal, a greater distribution per finite-lived intangibles increases future depreciation; a greater distribution in goodwill reduces scheduled depreciation for public IFRS/US-GAAP model, but increases the concentration of impact risk. Science literature really does consider goodwillPPA as an area of significant management dissection and potential early management48]

That is why for large state M&A, the independence of the evaluation function must be institutionally separated from the team, KPI of which depend on immediate improvement of post-deal learnings.

IA in the national economy: data, infrastructure, risks and new tools

Intangible investment as a macroeconomic category

The current capital structure is changing faster than the financial reporting system. Po WIPO, in 2025 the Year of Intangible Investments 29 The observed economies have exceeded $10 trillion; aggregate intent-investment intensity achieved 12,8% GDP. The United States had 15,6%, France 15,2%, a Sweden — 17,4% GDP. [2]

Important: these figures are not the book value of the IA. These are macroeconomic investment estimates of the broader intangible capital. It is impossible, for example, to take the indicator WIPO 12,8% and use it as a normative share of NMA in the Russian corporate balance sheet.

For the EU, the link between intellectual property and economic structure is also significant. By research EUIPO 2026, IPR-intense industries provided 30,6% the EU Employment and 47,9% economic activity/GDP on average 2021–2023 years; they received more 88% considered by private-equity/venture funding startups49]

This does not mean that 47,9% GDP is "created only by patents": EUIPO classifies the industry as IPR-intensive in terms of IP usage and emphasizes intersections of different types of rights. But the indicator demonstrates the system connection of IP and the most capital-intensive innovation chains. [50]

Proposed circular chart of the structure of the intangible investment

For international benchmark it is advisable to visualize the structure based on categories WIPO/Global INTAN-Invest. The chart below is illustrative: the shares are rounded to whole values from the published distribution and should not be interpreted as a structure of Russian IAs or as a balance sheet.

The main analytical meaning of this diagram is organizational resources, R&D and software/data are comparable in economic importance to the traditional patent-brand concept of IA, but a significant part of them does not appear as a recognized asset. The international base WIPO develops the extended concept of Corrado-Hulten-Sichel. [51]

Regulatory shift to data

Chinese experience shows the possible direction of the next generation of regulation: not to declare all data as an asset, but to create conditions for recognition, disclosure and a separate data resources management infrastructure. C 2024 Chinese companies have received a special accounting framework, and public policy simultaneously requires the development of standards for the evaluation and control of data assets52]

In 2026, China also published a national data assets classification and coding standard, which refers to existing Chinese HMA classification standards and to ISO 55013 for data assets management. This indicates a shift from single-entry accounting entries to a machine-readable asset class management infrastructure. [53]

Registers as a basic tool

For a large corporation, a quality register of IA must contain at least:

Resource ID → owner/controlling organization → Legal basis → Author/developer → Territory → term of law → Accounting status → tax status → valuation basis → cost → Method → date of evaluation → useful life → impairment triggers → Product/R&D → cybersecurity classification → KPI → history.

Russian infrastructure already has some elements of such a system. Rospatent maintains open registers of industrial property objects; GIS/single electronic infrastructure for maintaining state registers of intellectual activity results is developing. [54]

For subsoil use, Rosnedra uses an information licensing system with GISFunctionality of Spatial Analysis. This provides a natural basis for the connection of law + Geography + Resource + Technology + Valuation in the energy sector. [55]

GIS

GIS is especially useful where the value of the NMA is tied to the territory:

Subsoil use licenses; concessions; infrastructure rights; spectrum rights; natural resources; geological datasets; territorial brands; breeding achievements; IP used in specific production facilities.

For public administration, this allows you to move from the IMA table to the spatial balance of intellectual and technological rights.

Blockchain / distributed ledger

A distributed ledger is potentially useful not for "creating value" of an IA, but primarily for:

timestamping of origin → evidence version → chain of title → licensing → fixation transfer rights → audit trail.

WIPO noted the blockchain's potential to fix creation time and rights information, and EUIPO since 2021 developed European IP Registers in Blockchain. [56]

However, blockchain cannot be turned into an end in itself. It does not automatically prove economic value, does not replace the legal validity of the law and does not eliminate the error of the original data. It is important that your own service WIPO PROOF was discontinued in January 2022 The availability of timestamping technology does not yet guarantee a long-term institutional service model57]

Therefore, for Russia the priority should be:

Unified semantics and identifier NMA → legally significant register → API → versioning/audit trail → only then choose blockchain or conventional trusted database.

Estimated uncertainty and manipulation

NMAs are among the most judgment-intensive reporting objects. The fewer deals observed, the greater the role of Level 3 assumptions: sales forecasts, royalty rates, churn, useful life, terminal growth, and discount rate.

Main channels of manipulation:

over-capitalization of own costs → artificial increase in profit;

overrated useful life → understatement depreciation exploit;

aggressive royalty rate or optimistic DCF → Fair value is overvalued;

too high goodwill in PPA → Lower systematic post-deal depreciation;

delayed impeachment → retention of inflated assets and earnings;

Transfer price IP → transfer of profits between jurisdictions.

Studies do find a link between goodwill/impairment discrimination and PPA with research-management indicators, and European tax authorities separately consider transfer pricing and placement patents as a potential channel of profit shifting. [58]

Cyber Risks

An intangible asset can lose value without destroying the physical infrastructure. Leakage of source code, trade secrets, training set, engineering documentation or access keys can deprive the resource of exclusivity, reduce licensing potential or destroy competitive advantage.

NIST in industrial cybersecurity research noted IP theft as one of the leading cyberthreats for advanced manufacturing; wider NIST-materials refer to the economic consequences of cyber incidents business interference, fines, response costs and misappropriation of information59]

Hence the principal conclusion:

Cyber security HMA should be part of the valuation and implementation system, not just the security function.

For a critical asset, the registry should contain its cyber-classification, location, backup/recovery status, privileged-access map, third-party exposure, and assessment of the loss-of-exclusive effect on value.

Recommendations for Russian practice and state-corporate policy

Russia has already taken a significant step: the FSBU 14/2022 is used from the reporting period of 2024, and the FSO XI forms the professional basis for the assessment of intellectual property and IA. The next stage should be built not as another reform of the plan of accounts, but as a national system of intangible capital management. [60]

Legal Outline

The first direction is to create a single passport of an intangible resource applicable to state corporations and largest companies with state participation.

It should not mean automatic recognition of each object of the IA in the balance sheet. The passport should independently indicate:

legal status; accounting status; tax status; valuation status; security status; state significance.

This eliminates the fundamental error "if an object is not in the balance sheet, then it does not exist as an economic asset."

For IP created under a government contract or with budget co-financing, a machine-readable chain should be provided:

Methodological outline

The sectoral methodological profiles of the IA should be approved, rather than trying to apply one model to the entire economy.

Methodical requirements should prohibit the use of a single value number without interval/sensitivity analysis for material Level-3-type valuations.

For a meaningful NMA, the report must show a minimum base/downside/upside case and sensitivity to the three main assumptions.

Institutional Outline

It is advisable to form a national methodological platform for the assessment and statistics of the NMA on the principle close to the Chinese architecture:

Library of objects → library of methods → Parameter Library → library royalty/transaction benchmarks → library useful lives → the Impairment Cases Library → Industry Indexes.

Chinese data assets policy explicitly assumes similar standard/rule/indicator/model/case libraries. [61]

The Russian contour can be built on a bundle:

Minfin → Ministry of Economic Development/Assessment Community → Rospatent → Rosstat → FNS → Sectoral Departments → Rosimushchestvo → State Corporation → development institutions.

The accounting value remains within the competence of the applicable standards, and a single platform creates a benchmark infrastructure, not the administrative “state patent price”.

The two-contour balance of intangible capital

It is recommended for state corporations to form annually:

Financial layer: recognized intangible assets + goodwill + depreciation + impact.

Strategic layer: all controlled intangible capital, including unrecognized resources.

Example:

It is this approach that allows not to destroy the reliability of accounting by excessive capitalization, but at the same time to give the state a real map of intellectual capital.

NMA and system KPI

In the public sector, it is dangerous to stimulate management of KPI "growth of the carrying amount of IA": it can be performed through M&A, cost capitalization or optimistic estimates without creating a real economic effect.

It is more correct to build a chain from resource to result:

This means that the unit of efficiency is not the patent itself, but the economic output of the controlled technology.

KPI national and corporate level

A limited set of cross-cutting indicators is appropriate for authorities and state corporations.

The absolute amount of IA should not become a key state indicator: the inter-industry comparability of such a sum is low, and the incentive to overestimation is too large.

Funding under IP

The next level of maturity is the use of qualitatively identified and evaluated IA for financing, collateral structures, licensing and securitization where legally and economically permissible.

the European Institutions 2026 The IP-backed finance is separately examined and noted that one of the reasons for the weak use of IP as collateral remains the lack of clarity and acceptance of the relevant assets by creditors62]

Therefore, the state stimulation of IP-backed lending in Russia should begin not with the mandatory acceptance of a patent by the bank as collateral, but with:

due diligence standard; encumbrance register; uniform valuation reports; statistics recoveries; secondary market; insurance of individual risks; recovery procedures.

Tax policy

Russian tax incentives are already moving in the direction of priority technological NMA 2025 For a number of Russian programs, databases, AI-related and certain R&D-generated rights, increasing coefficients are provided33]

The next principle should be that the tax incentive depends not only on the fact of purchase or registration of the asset, but also on meaningful technological activities. Otherwise, the system risks stimulating legal re-registration of rights instead of developing technologies.

For international groups, a separate control is necessary:

DEMPE-like economics → Where technology is created → What is R&D Risk → Who controls the IP → Where is Royalty → What is arm's-length valuation.

The international experience of the EU shows that placing patents and royalty flows can become a profit shifting tool, so IP support policies must simultaneously have an anti-abuse layer. [63]

Roadmap of Russia for the management of IA to 2030

The proposed roadmap assumes that FSBU 14/2022 and FSO XI are already in operation; therefore, the goal is not to replace the current accounting regulation, but to create an integrated state-corporate system over it. [64]

Priority for the year 2026: not the reassessment of millions of objects, but the inventory and classification. Without a credible owner, legal nature, source of creation, product relationships, and cybersecurity, any monetary valuation would create false accuracy.

Priority 2027: Evaluation governance. For a significant IA, the state group must store the model, initial assumptions, evaluation date, confidence interval, scripts, reviewer, and audit trail.

Priority 2028: data/software/AI. Chinese experience shows that data-resource accounting is becoming an independent regulatory direction; IASB simultaneously considers data, AI, software and SaaS as part of the modernization IAS 38. It is more rational for Russia to create a data-asset register in advance, without expecting the mandatory accounting capitalization of all such resources. [65]

Priority 2029: IA funding. Only after accumulating transaction history, recoveries, and valuation accuracy is it reasonable to scale IP-backed finance.

Priority 2030 Year: Linking Corporate Registers to Macroeconomics. WIPO shows that the intangible investment has already become comparable and surpasses the intangible investment in terms of the share of GDP in the observed population of developed and large economies. Russian industrial policy, which measures only buildings, machine tools and financial investments, will systematically underestimate the technological basis of production2]

The resulting policy architecture can be reduced to seven principles:

Not to capitalize everything — to identify everything essential. IAS 38 US and GAAP maintain conservativeness is not accidental: the cost of many internally generated resources can not be reliably separated from the value of the business as a whole66]

Divide the accounting and strategic value. An unrecognized resource in the financial balance sheet can be critical to technological sovereignty.

Evaluate the script, not just the number. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty range are required for material HMA.

Link the IA to the product and cash flow. A patent without implementation should not automatically improve KPI.

Link M&A to follow-up control of goodwill. Microsoft/Activision shows the scale PPA: at the price $75,408 billion Goodwill $51,001 billion, the Identifiable Intangibles — $21,969 billion Such amounts require years of monitoring of the actual implementation of synergies44]

Make data assets a separate direction. Here the most interesting state benchmark today is provided by China. [52]

Consider cyber security as part of value preservation. Theft of know-how or data is not only an IT incident, but a potential economic asset’s impact. [59]

As a result, by 2030 for a large Russian state corporation, the target model should look not like one line of “Intangible Assets” in the balance sheet, but as a related system:

This is the most significant lesson of world experience: the modern system of IA is no longer only accounting for intellectual property. It is an infrastructure for managing knowledge, rights, data, technology, cost and risk throughout the entire life cycle of intangible capital. Movement IASB the Comprehensive Review IAS 38, work FASB over software/intangibles, Chinese data asset institutionalization and the growing macroeconomic dimension of intangible investment WIPO point in one direction - from the static accounting of individual rights to the management of the intangible production base of the economy67]

[1] [4] [12] [13] [14] [29] https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ias-38-intangible-assets/

https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ias-38-intangible-assets/

[2] https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/world-intangible-investment-highlights-2026/en/key-trends-and-insights.html

https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/world-intangible-investment-highlights-2026/en/key-trends-and-insights.html

[3] [51] https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/measuring-capital-new-economy

https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/measuring-capital-new-economy

[5] [19] https://storage.fasb.org/BMHO20220622.pdf

https://storage.fasb.org/BMHO20220622.pdf

[6] [23] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2002/1606/oj/eng

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2002/1606/oj/eng

[7] https://www.mof.gov.cn/jrttts/202312/t20231220_3923180.htm

https://www.mof.gov.cn/jrttts/202312/t20231220_3923180.htm

[8] [40] [42] [43] [44] https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar25/index.html

https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar25/index.html

[9] https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/meetings/2025/february/iasb/ap17a-update-on-feedback.pdf

https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/meetings/2025/february/iasb/ap17a-update-on-feedback.pdf

[10] [34] [35] IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement

https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ifrs-13-fair-value-measurement/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[11] https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/document/?id_4=136833-novoe_v_bukhgalterskom_zakonodatelstve_fakty_i_kommentarii

https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/document/?id_4=136833-novoe_v_bukhgalterskom_zakonodatelstve_fakty_i_kommentarii

[15] [66] https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2026/issued/ias38.html

https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2026/issued/ias38.html

[16] IFRS - IAS 38 Intangible Assets

https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ias-38-intangible-assets/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[17] IAS 36 Impairment of Assets

https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ias-36-impairment-of-assets/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[18] https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2026/issued/ifrs3.html

https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2026/issued/ifrs3.html

[20] https://storage.fasb.org/PCC-Topic%202-PublicMtg-20240418.pdf

https://storage.fasb.org/PCC-Topic%202-PublicMtg-20240418.pdf

[21] https://www.fasb.org/page/PageContent?bcpath=tff&pageId=%2Freference-library%2Fsuperseded-standards%2Fsummary-of-statement-no-141-revised-2007.html

https://www.fasb.org/page/PageContent?bcpath=tff&pageId=%2Freference-library%2Fsuperseded-standards%2Fsummary-of-statement-no-141-revised-2007.html

[22] https://www.fasb.org/page/PageContent?isStaticPage=true&pageId=%2Fstaticpages%2Fgoodwill-impairment-testing.html

https://www.fasb.org/page/PageContent?isStaticPage=true&pageId=%2Fstaticpages%2Fgoodwill-impairment-testing.html

[24] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX%3A02013L0034-20211221

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX%3A02013L0034-20211221

[25] https://www.efrag.org/system/files/sites/webpublishing/Meeting%20Documents/2006231244542621/04-02%20Draft%20Discussion%20Paper.pdf

https://www.efrag.org/system/files/sites/webpublishing/Meeting%20Documents/2006231244542621/04-02%20Draft%20Discussion%20Paper.pdf

[26] https://kzp.mof.gov.cn/content.jsp?class_id=01_21&infoid=1626

https://kzp.mof.gov.cn/content.jsp?class_id=01_21&infoid=1626

[27] [52] [65] https://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/caijingshidian/renminwang/202308/t20230828_3904233.htm

https://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/caijingshidian/renminwang/202308/t20230828_3904233.htm

[28] [61] https://zcpgzx.mof.gov.cn/zcfg/202401/t20240112_3925778.htm

https://zcpgzx.mof.gov.cn/zcfg/202401/t20240112_3925778.htm

[30] IFRS - Intangible Assets

https://www.ifrs.org/projects/work-plan/intangible-assets/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[31] https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2026/issued/ias12.html

https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2026/issued/ias12.html

[32] https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/intangibles

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/intangibles

[33] https://www.nalog.gov.ru/rn28/news/activities_fts/15704623/

https://www.nalog.gov.ru/rn28/news/activities_fts/15704623/

[36] https://viewpoint.pwc.com/dt/gx/en/ivsc/international_valuat/international_valuat_INT/international_valuat_INT/International-Valuation-Standards/Asset-Standards/IVS-210-Intangible-Assets/60_Income_Approach.html

https://viewpoint.pwc.com/dt/gx/en/ivsc/international_valuat/international_valuat_INT/international_valuat_INT/International-Valuation-Standards/Asset-Standards/IVS-210-Intangible-Assets/60_Income_Approach.html

[37] https://viewpoint.pwc.com/dt/uk/en/pwc/manual_of_accounting/ifrs/ifrs_INT/ifrs_INT/05_fair_value_ifrs_1_INT/common_areas_of_appl_INT.html

https://viewpoint.pwc.com/dt/uk/en/pwc/manual_of_accounting/ifrs/ifrs_INT/ifrs_INT/05_fair_value_ifrs_1_INT/common_areas_of_appl_INT.html

[38] IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement

https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2025/issued/ifrs13-ie.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[39] ISO 10668:2010 - Brand valuation

https://www.iso.org/standard/46032.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[41] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/78003/000007800325000017/pfe-12312024xex99.htm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/78003/000007800325000017/pfe-12312024xex99.htm

[45] https://www.fasb.org/page/PageContent?pageId=%2Fprojects%2Frecently-completed-projects%2Faccounting-for-and-disclosure-of-software-costs.html

https://www.fasb.org/page/PageContent?pageId=%2Fprojects%2Frecently-completed-projects%2Faccounting-for-and-disclosure-of-software-costs.html

[46] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448921000074/R9.htm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448921000074/R9.htm

[47] https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2026/issued/ifrs6.html

https://www.ifrs.org/content/dam/ifrs/publications/html-standards/english/2026/issued/ifrs6.html

[48] [58] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0882611015000127

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0882611015000127

[49] [50] https://www.euipo.europa.eu/en/publications/ip-and-innovation-in-european-sectors

https://www.euipo.europa.eu/en/publications/ip-and-innovation-in-european-sectors

[53] https://zcgls.mof.gov.cn/zhengcefabu/202607/P020260717331855291500.pdf

https://zcgls.mof.gov.cn/zhengcefabu/202607/P020260717331855291500.pdf

[54] https://online.rospatent.gov.ru/open-data/open-registers

https://online.rospatent.gov.ru/open-data/open-registers

[55] https://rosnedra.gov.ru/activity/tsifrovizatsiya/perechen_informatsionnykh_sistem_nakhodyashchikhsya_v_vedenii_federalnogo_agentstva_po_nedropolzovan/

https://rosnedra.gov.ru/activity/tsifrovizatsiya/perechen_informatsionnykh_sistem_nakhodyashchikhsya_v_vedenii_federalnogo_agentstva_po_nedropolzovan/

[56] https://www.wipo.int/en/web/wipo-magazine/articles/blockchain-transforming-the-registration-of-ip-rights-and-strengthening-the-protection-of-unregistered-ip-rights-55817

https://www.wipo.int/en/web/wipo-magazine/articles/blockchain-transforming-the-registration-of-ip-rights-and-strengthening-the-protection-of-unregistered-ip-rights-55817

[57] https://www.wipo.int/en/web/wipo-proof

https://www.wipo.int/en/web/wipo-proof

[59] https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2016/12/28/cyberrisk_manu_fullstudy_landscape_brochure_lpxcic07_06_17_7101_finalfor.pdf

https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2016/12/28/cyberrisk_manu_fullstudy_landscape_brochure_lpxcic07_06_17_7101_finalfor.pdf

[60] https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/perfomance/accounting/accounting/standart/positions/

https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/perfomance/accounting/accounting/standart/positions/

[62] IP-backed finance in Europe: state of play and future... - EUIPO

https://www.euipo.europa.eu/en/publications/IP-backed-finance-in-Europe-state-of-play-and-future-perspectives?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[63] https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9f5e88ae-eabc-4c44-952c-c09ed2ee8103_en

https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/document/download/9f5e88ae-eabc-4c44-952c-c09ed2ee8103_en

[64] https://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202206280008

https://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202206280008

[67] IASB launches comprehensive review of accounting for...

https://www.ifrs.org/news-and-events/news/2024/04/iasb-launches-comprehensive-review-accounting-for-intangibles/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Passport document

Table 1. Research framework

How to read the conclusions The surplus of a separate contour is not equal to the stability of the entire system. For example, an export or budget reserve may coexist with demographic deficits, fund depreciation, and technological dependence.

Constraints on comparability

• The territorial base has changed; after 2014 and 2022, the long ranks of the population and regional indicators require separate marking.
• Transitions between OKVED classifiers, revisions of national accounts, labour force surveys and poverty methodologies form series gaps.
• After 2022, the detailing of part of foreign trade and industry statistics is limited; where there is no full range, aggregates of the Bank of Russia and Rosstat are used.
• Costs are not directly compared without deflation; priority is given to real indices, GDP shares and physical volumes.

Summary for decision

Russia’s thirty-year trajectory is not a linear path from crisis to sustainability, but a change of type of imbalance. V 1990- liquidity and institutional deficits dominated 2000e) recovery based on unloaded capacity and export rent 2010-e - deceleration under already established reserves 2020e) forced structural adaptation, accompanied by a shortage of labor, capital and technology.

Twelve Conclusions

• The sovereign balance is stronger. The state’s low debt burden, international reserves and a steadily positive commodity balance create protection against the classical payment crisis of the 1990s.
• The growth rate has become weaker than the quality of stocks. Real GDP growth of almost two times 1999–2008 The average rate of change is about 1% in 2014–2019 years; in 2025 The growth slowed to 1,0%.
• Financial stability is becoming increasingly difficult to convert into investment flows. In 2025, the economy as a whole was a net lender, but non-financial corporations were a net borrower, and the high cost of money held back capacity renewal.
• Demography has become a major systemic deficit. The number of births in 2024 was about 1,22 million - less than in the mid-1990; the short window of natural equilibrium 2013–2015 closed.
• The job market is both strong and vulnerable. Unemployment of 2,2% in 2025 means an almost full load of labor supply, but also a chronic shortage of personnel and pressure on the cost of living.
• The social balance has improved on poverty but not completed on income quality. The proportion of the population below the poverty line has decreased from 29,0% in 2000 to 6,7% in 2025; the gap by region and group remains significant.
• The scientific and technological contour does not reproduce the scale. Research and development staff has declined by about 1,06 Millions of people in 1995 the Year 676 thousands in 2024 year, and the costs remain 1% GDP.
• Fixed assets are a hidden liability. Average wear and tear reached 42,3% in 2024; in a number of infrastructure and utility systems it is higher.
• Energy and food balances are physically sustainable, but the value of exports depends on processing depth, logistics, and access to technology.
• The territorial balance is not balanced. The concentration of people, income, investment and scientific personnel in several agglomerations increases the outflow from peripheral regions.
• Environmental balance remains negative for waste accumulation and local wear and tear of natural systems. Mass of production and consumption waste in 2024 The year - about 8,5 billion tons.
• The main task of 2026–2035 is to switch policy from the protection of stocks to the reproduction of flows: people, competencies, fixed capital, technologies, soils, water and ecosystems.

The formula of the era of a strong balance of stocks is a tight balance of flows. The solution is not to spend the reserves as such, but to turn them into productivity, human capital and a longer asset life cycle.

Table 2. Summary Status Bar

Source: Expert synthetic evaluation of the author based on official series; not official index.

Contents

1. Method of national balances

2. Thirty Years: Six Regimes

3. Production, investment and productivity

4. Budget, money and financial flows

5. External balance

6. The demographic balance

7. Labor, income and human capital

8. Industry, technology and science

9. Energy and material balance

10. Food, land and water

11. Infrastructure and housing

12. Territorial balance

13. Ecology and climate

14. Integrated matrix

15. Scripts 2026–2035

16. Strategic agenda

Conclusion

Annex A. Passports of indicators

Annex B. Methodological reservations

Sources

All sections form one causal chain: demography determines the supply of labor; productivity and capital - output; budget and external position - the space of maneuver; technology, infrastructure and ecology - the duration of this maneuver.

1. Method of national balances

Balance is not just accounting equality. For strategic analysis, it shows whether the circuit is able to maintain its stock without constantly increasing hidden liabilities. GDP can grow with a reduction in population; the budget can be surplus with accelerated network wear; exports - high with the loss of technological depth. Therefore, the assessment is built simultaneously in stock, flow and reproduction.

Basic Equality Balance = Reserves + The tributaries + Reproduction − Consumption − Ottoki − Losses − Commitments.

Table 3. Six dimensions of each balance

Rules of interpretation

• A positive flow is considered stable only if the quality of the stock is maintained.
• One-time shock is separated from the structural trend: the crisis of 2009 is an external shock, the demographic decline after 2016 is a structural process.
• Stock and liability are counted together: the introduction of housing without utility capacity increases the future load; mining without reclamation is an environmental debt.
• The national average does not replace the territorial distribution: the surplus of vacancies in one agglomeration does not compensate for the outflow in another territory.
• Target corridors are defined as management guidelines, not a point forecast.

2. Thirty Years: Six Regimes

The main mistake of long analysis is to consider 1995–2025 years as a single statistical series. During this time, institutions, currency regime, ownership structure, demographic base, trade geography and the scale of state participation have changed. It is more useful to see six regimes, each of which has solved one group of deficits and formed the next.

Table 4. Periodization by type of imbalance

The Meaning of Transition

In 1990, the task was to stop the collapse of the payment circuit. In 2000, the main resource of growth was the utilization of already created capacities against the background of favorable export prices. By 2012–2013, this reserve was exhausted: further growth required new capital, technology, and productivity, not just demand.

After 2014, the stability of the exchange rate, banks and the budget has become more important than the speed of growth. This reduced the likelihood of a classic systemic crisis, but cemented the gap between fiscal prudence and real renewal. The period of 2022–2024 temporarily raised output due to strong state demand and full load factors; 2025 showed a limitation of this model - an increase of 1,0% under still tight monetary conditions.

3. Production, investment and productivity

Gross output has increased, but the structure of the sources of growth has changed. At the beginning of the 2000s, free capacities, cheap labor, strengthening of payment discipline and export demand simultaneously worked. In the 2020s, additional output increasingly requires scarce workers, expensive credit, parallel infrastructure, and technological replacement.

Figure 1. Annual real GDP rate, 1995–2025

Source: Rosstat, chain indices of the volume of GDP; 2024–2025 - current revisions as of the cut date.

Table 5. Changing the growth regime

Source: Rosstat: National Accounts

The investment gap

Nominal GDP has increased since 7,3 trillion Rubles in 2000 the Year 202,3 trillion Rubles in 2024 This is a combination of real growth, inflation and changes in price proportions. For the capital balance, the ratio of investments to disposal and the quality of new assets are more important. Average depreciation of fixed assets 42,3% in 2024 A significant portion of gross investment serves replacement, not net expansion.

Low unemployment no longer allows growth mainly through increased employment. A steady pace above 2% requires output growth per hour, downtime reduction, robotization, better management, and the movement of capital from low-performance to high-performance applications.

A balance trap occurs when a budget stimulates demand faster than capacity expands. Then the additional demand manifests itself in prices, imports or lengthening deadlines, and the central bank raises the cost of capital. It was this ligament that became visible in 2024–2025.

The problem is not the lack of aggregate demand as such, but the limited elasticity of supply: people, equipment, logistics and technology do not have time to respond to the impulse.

4. Budget, money and financial flows

The financial contour of Russia has become fundamentally more stable than the 1990s: public debt is small, banks are better capitalized, the exchange rate serves as a shock absorber. But in 2025, tensions shifted from solvency to the price of capital and the structure of sectoral flows.

Table 6. Financial Panel 2025

Source: Bank of Russia; Minfin Russia. Values are rounded.

Sectoral Balances

Table 7. Financial accounts by sector, 2025

Source: Bank of Russia: financial accounts and balance sheets of financial assets

Household savings are a protective reserve, but their concentration on deposits does not guarantee conversion to long-term capital. This requires tools with understandable risk, inflation protection and binding to renewal projects.

Low public debt provides room for manoeuvre, but does not remove supply constraints. A loan is justified if it finances an asset with returns above the cost of service and does not fix fixed costs without a permanent source of income.

The monetary balance will remain tight as budget demand, wages and credit grow faster than capacity. Therefore, anti-inflationary policies should include not only the rate, but also the accelerated removal of physical bottlenecks.

5. External balance

The external contour remains one of the strongest: exports of goods exceed imports, the current account is positive, external debt is controlled. However, the quality of the balance sheet has changed - some reserve assets are limited, calculations and logistics are more expensive, the geography of trade is already, and the surplus of 2025 is less than the previous one.

Figure 2. Trade balance and current account, 2023–2025

Source: Bank of Russia, balance of payments estimate; USD billion Annex II

Table 8. Transformation of the external circuit

What hides the surplus

• A positive current account may reflect not only competitiveness, but also limited imports of equipment and services.
• The growth of external assets is not equal to the available reserve if the rights of disposal and settlement infrastructure change.
• Export earnings create sustainability only when they finance domestic accumulation of productive capital.
• Concentration on several products and markets increases sensitivity to price, discount, freight and sanction risk.

Not to maximize gross exports, but to increase net value per unit of resource: processing, service, intellectual component, reliability of calculations and diversification of routes.

6. The demographic balance

Demography is the contour with the longest lag and the least possibility of quick compensation. A child who is not born today will not enter the labor market in twenty years; a lost healthy life expectancy reduces the supply of labor right now. Therefore, the demographic deficit cannot be closed only by short-term migration.

Figure 3. Births and deaths, selected years 1995–2024

Source: Rosstat, natural population movement. Values are rounded; territorial changes require caution.

Table 9. Reference demographics

Source: Rosstat: demography

Three different deficits

1. Deficit of birth. Smaller generations enter reproductive age; even an increase in fertility per woman does not immediately increase the total number of births.
2. Deficit of healthy years of life. Mortality of working age, chronic diseases and unequal access to prevention reduce the real supply of labor.
3. Deficit of territorial consolidation. Young and skilled people are concentrated in the largest agglomerations, leaving the periphery with an aging structure and expensive infrastructure per capita.

What changes the trajectory

Cash payment by itself rarely overcomes the total barrier. The decision of the family depends on the availability of housing, stability of employment, kindergartens, medical care, time for care, transport accessibility and confidence in the future. The policy should be assessed at the full cost of the child’s birth and upbringing for the household.

Migration is necessary to smooth out the supply of labor, but its balance is determined not only by the number of arrivals. Important are age, qualifications, language skills, tax legalization, family integration and regional distribution. We need a selective long-term model, not just closing vacancies.

No economic scenario of 2035 is sustainable without a separate balance of population: birth, mortality, healthy life expectancy, migration and territorial permanence should be taken into account together.

7. Labor, income and human capital

The social result of the last 30 years is contradictory: mass poverty 1990 has sharply decreased, the real availability of goods and services has increased, unemployment has reached a historic low. At the same time, there was a shortage of workers, income inequality and access to quality services remain, and wage growth outpaces productivity in scarce segments.

Figure 4. Proportion of population below poverty line, years selected

Source: Rosstat. Since 2021, a new poverty line methodology has been applied; direct comparison requires a reservation.

Table 10. Human capital as flow, not expenditure

Transition from Employment to Productivity

With almost full employment, additional output cannot be sustainably obtained through a constant lengthening of working hours. Organizational innovation, technology, retraining and mobility are needed. The critical indicator is not the number of employees by itself, but the output and quality per healthy working hour.

The education system should be assessed by the balance of competencies: how many specialists are trained, how many are entrenched in the profession and the region, how quickly the skills become obsolete, what is the demand of enterprises. Ordering without responsibility for employment generates a formal issue and a real deficit.

Poverty reduction is an important success, but the threshold is insufficient. For the reproduction of the family, the median income after mandatory payments, the cost of housing and childcare, the availability of medicine, as well as the household reserve in case of loss of income are important.

8. Industry, technology and science

The industrial circuit in 2022–2024 showed a high ability to mobilize and replace supplies. However, the loading of existing lines and the expansion of individual industries are not equal to technological reproduction. Its criterion is the ability to independently design, produce, maintain and next iteration to improve critical systems.

Figure 5. R&D staff and internal research costs

Source: Rosstat; NRU HSE according to Rosstat. Values for individual years are rounded.

Table 11. Ladder of technological reproduction

V 2024 The internal costs of research and development, taking into account small businesses, were estimated at approximately 1,94 trillion rupees, or 0,97% GDP. This is significantly lower than the national benchmark of at least 2% GDP to 2030 year. Not only the amount, but also the share of entrepreneurial financing, competitiveness, measurable impact and sustainability of teams are important.

The number of domestic applications for inventions in 2024 increased to 41,4 thousand. A patent is an intermediate result. The balance sheet should track the share of developments that have reached the pilot, series, export and re-order.

Technological sovereignty should be interpreted as managed interdependence: critical functions should have domestic replacement and maintainability, and non-critical ones should be connected to global chains on a diversified basis.

Target 2030 No less than 2% GDP on R&D makes sense only together with an increase in the number of sustainable research teams, serial implementations and private co-financing. Otherwise, the consumption increases, but the system does not reproduce.

9. Energy and material balance

Russia has a large physical reserve and sustainable energy production. The restriction is not so much in the volume of raw materials, but in the cost of production, processing quality, logistics, equipment and environmental obligations. It is not gross tonnage that is important for the strategy, but the net value added per unit of extracted resource.

Figure 6. Index of physical output of oil, coal and electricity

Source: Rosstat; the Ministry of Energy of Russia. 1995 = 100; Values for 2025 Preliminary/operational year.

Table 12. Physical reference rows

Source: Ministry of Energy of Russia: results of 2025

Five levels of resource efficiency

• recovery with minimal losses and accidents;
• depth of processing and product quality;
• energy efficiency of its own production;
• Logistic cost and market diversification;
• Closing the environmental obligation: recycling, reclamation, water and emissions.

Electricity is becoming the infrastructure of the new industrial cycle. Data centers, transport electrification, mining projects and new productions increase the load unevenly across territories. The overall power surplus can coexist with local network and connectivity deficits.

Material balance must take into account critical minerals and components. The presence of ore does not mean the presence of reagents, enrichment, clean materials, equipment and a certified final product. Therefore, the passports of chains are needed by functions, not only by types of raw materials.

10. Food, land and water

The agro-food circuit is one of the most notable adaptation successes. Grain yields, meat production, and food exports are well above the levels of the 1990s. But sustainability depends on seeds, breeding material, machinery, protections, soil fertility, water, and the transport chain.

Table 13. Food balance in dynamics

Source: Rosstat: historical data on grain harvest

The new frontier of sustainability

Physical self-sufficiency does not close technological dependences. Seeds, genetics, veterinary medicines, agricultural machinery, software management and refrigeration logistics should be evaluated as part of the same chain.

Land is a renewable resource only when fertility is reproduced. The balance of humus, erosion, acidity, reclamation and return of organic matter should enter the project economy as well as fuel and fertilizer.

Water is a territorial resource, not a national average. The national runoff surplus does not exclude a shortage of quality water, pollution of the basin, or a lack of infrastructure in a specific production area.

Food exports are sustainable if domestic prices, soil quality, seed and machine circuits remain within the target range. Gross revenue should not be financed by the depletion of natural capital.

11. Infrastructure and housing

Infrastructure connects all other balances: without the network, industrial capacity is not realized, without transport - resource and food surplus, without utility systems - housing, without communication - territorial availability of services. Its main risk is the invisible gap between new construction and maintenance of the existing fund.

Table 14. Infrastructure balance of the life cycle

Source: Rosstat: housing construction 2024

Average depreciation of fixed assets 42,3% in 2024 year - a signal that the volume of input cannot be estimated without disposal and repair. Every infrastructure program needs a full life cycle: construction, connection, operation, repair and dismantling.

Record housing starts do not guarantee a better housing balance if the price and mortgage payment grow faster than income, and new areas are not provided with jobs, schools, clinics and transport.

The eastern turn of trade enhances the strategic value of railways, ports, border crossings and the Northern Sea Route. But the choice of the project should take into account not only gross tonnage, but an increase in value added and reliability of the entire chain.

The new facility should be tested on four balances: demand for capacity, availability of personnel, maintenance cost and environmental liability. Otherwise, the input turns into a future budget deficit.

12. Territorial balance

The average in Russia hides several different economies: the largest agglomerations with a shortage of land and people; resource regions with high revenues and narrow specialization; old industrial areas with wear and tear; agricultural zones; small towns and remote settlements with high cost of basic services. The universal measure has a different effect.

Table 15. Different models of territorial balance

From equalization of costs to equalization of opportunities

Inter-budget transfers hold the minimum level of services, but do not automatically create an economic base. The territorial balance should measure the availability of work, education, medicine, and transportation hubs in a reasonable time, not just per capita budget expenditures.

A reference point is effective if a real accessibility zone is formed around it. For each service, you need to choose a physical, mobile or digital form and take into account the reliability of communication, transport schedule and age structure of the population.

The decision on the location of production should be checked by the balance of water, energy, personnel, housing and logistics. The tax relief does not compensate for the systemic deficit of these five resources.

13. Ecology and climate

The ecological contour is often considered an external prohibition, although it is essentially a balance sheet of natural capital and future liabilities. Pollution, waste, soil degradation and climate damage first increase output through an unpaid resource, and then return through health, accidents, insurance, export barriers and fiscal reclamation.

Table 16. Environmental balance as a commitment

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia: state report

The circular economy

For mining and metallurgical chains, the main potential is the reuse of overburden, slag, ash, scrap metal and water. But recycling should not be a formal change in the waste code: you need a confirmed product, a market and no risk transfer.

For solid municipal waste, the priority is to prevent formation, separate collection, sorting, reuse and only then energy disposal or disposal. The target should not take into account the capacity of the facility, but the actual reduction of the burial.

Adaptation to climate change is no longer a distant future. Permafrost infrastructure, southern agriculture, forest regions and large cities need physical risk maps included in the cost of capital and insurance.

The natural resource balance is not free. If restoration, monitoring and future liquidation are not included in the project price, the system accumulates environmental debt outside the balance sheet.

14. Integrated matrix

The matrix reduces 13 contours to a single logic. Green status means that the stock and current flow are generally stable; yellow - the stock is still sufficient, but reproduction is weakening; orange - negative flow requires a reversal of policy; red - the deficit already limits other contours. The assessment is expert and is intended for prioritization, not for statistical ranking.

Figure 7. Expert map of national balances by stages

Source: synthesis of official data of Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Environment. Not an official index.

Table 17. Imbalance Transmission Channels

Major inconsistencies 2025

• Household financial savings are large, but long production capital is expensive.
• Unemployment is minimal, but productivity and automation do not close the personnel gap.
• The external surplus remains, but access to technological imports and part of the assets is limited.
• Housing is record-breaking, but the family’s demographic decision depends on affordability and infrastructure, not meters on average.
• Resource output is high, but recycling, logistics, and environmental closure determine net worth.
• Public debt is low, but the hidden obligation of worn-out funds is great.

15. Scripts 2026–2035

Scenarios are not forecasts. These are three logically agreed upon sets of solutions and consequences. The real trajectory can combine their elements, but the choice of priorities should be clear: what stocks are spent, what flows are strengthened and what commitments are made.

Table 18. Scenario fork

Target corridors of scenario B

Table 19. Management guidelines, not a point forecast

Source: Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 309 from 07.05.2024 and expert corridors

Triggers of revision

• Inflation is consistently higher 6% With a lower output growth 2% — Lack of supply, not just demand.
• The liquid part of the reserves covers less than two years of stress deficit - a prioritization of obligations is required.
• Investments are growing, and depreciation is not reduced for three years - input does not compensate for disposal or the quality of accounting is not enough.
• The number of births and healthy life expectancy at the same time worsens two years - demographic policy is transferred to the priority program.
• The share of serial implementations does not grow with an increase in R&D - financing is redistributed from the process to a proven transition to production.

16. Strategic agenda

We do not need another sum of sectoral programs, but a mechanism for coordinating balance sheets. Each major measure should show what stock it creates, what flow changes, what commitment it makes and what neighboring contour can limit the result.

Table 20. Portfolio of priority decisions

Digital contour "EQUILIBRIUM - Balances of Russia"

The digital system should not be a showcase of indicators, but a decision-checking machine. Its core is a linked graph of stocks, flows, constraints and liabilities, where each value has a source, date, methodology and level of uncertainty.

The first pilot should be built on three end-to-end chains: “demography-labor-housing”, “investments-funds-energy network” and “resources-refining-logistics-ecological closure”. They cover the main human, capital and natural obligation deficits.

Table 21. Digital contour architecture

Integration Pilot Projects ECO-PPA the " World Cup "SPECZASHCHITA" can be connected as application contours of verification of environmental obligation, power supply and security of critical infrastructure - after unification of indicators and rules of verification.

Organizational model

• a small methodology centre responsible for definitions, data quality and inter-contour linkages;
• owners of each balance in the relevant departments and development institutions;
• an independent scientific and expert board to verify assumptions and scenarios;
• open layer of aggregated data and protected layer of project/sensitive information;
• Annual national report and quarterly panel of early signals.

Conclusion

Over thirty years, Russia has created what it lacked in the 1990s: the state’s ability to meet its payment obligations, a reserve framework, competitive export industries, a food production base, low unemployment and the capacity to adapt institutions rapidly. This is a real stock of resilience.

But the next task is another type. A currency reserve does not replace a child, an engineering school, a good network, fertile soil, or serial technology. These assets are reproduced slowly, require harmonization and do not arise automatically from the current surplus.

Therefore, the criterion of success of 2026–2035 years is not a maximum of a single indicator, but joint sustainability: growth without accelerating inflation; employment without depletion of people; exports without technological impoverishment; construction without accumulation of wear and tear; extraction without environmental debt; territory without forced outflow.

The main managerial transition is from reaction to deficits to reproduction design. The national balance sheet should become a constant cycle: measure the stock, see the flow, check the limit, select the portfolio, fix the obligation and revise the decision on the fact.

Final formula of sovereignty XXI The ability to not only withstand the shock, but also to reproduce people, knowledge, capital, infrastructure and the natural environment faster than they leave.

Annex A. Passports of indicators

Below is the minimum set for the working panel. Each indicator should be stored with a version, territory, unit, frequency, source, revision technique and uncertainty interval.

Table A1. Minimum passports 13 balance sheets

Passport model of a separate indicator

Table A2. Data quality standard

Annex B. Methodological reservations

Table B1. Where Caution is Especially Important

Sources

The basis is official publications. Links lead to the pages of departments or files available on the cut date. The data in the text is rounded; if there is a discrepancy, the latest version of the source source takes precedence.

1. Rosstat. National accounts

2. Rosstat. "Intelligible statistics": GDP and accounts

3. Rosstat. Russian Statistical Yearbook

4. Rosstat. "Russia in numbers - 2025"

5. Rosstat. Prices and inflation

6. Rosstat. Demography

7. Rosstat. Historical population

8. Rosstat. Natural population movement, 2024

9. Rosstat. Poverty, preliminary estimate 2025

10. Rosstat. A number of historical poverty

11. Bank of Russia. Balance of payments

12. Bank of Russia. Balance of payments of Russia, 2025

13. Bank of Russia. International reserves

14. Bank of Russia. External debt

15. Bank of Russia. Financial accounts and balances

16. Bank of Russia. Macroeconomic Review, January 2026

17. Minfin Russia. Preliminary execution of the federal budget for 2025

18. Minfin Russia. the National Welfare Fund

19. Minfin Russia. Public debt and debt policy

20. Minfin Russia. Budget forecast up to 2042

21. Rosstat. Science, innovation and technology

22. ISSEZ NIU HSE. R & D expenditure in 2024

23. ISSEZ NIU HSE. Staff and researchers, 2024

24. Rosstat. Historical number of R&D personnel

25. Rospatent. Applications for Inventions 2024

26. Rosstat. Fixed assets

27. Rosstat. Housing construction in 2024

28. Ministry of Energy of Russia. Results of activity for the year 2025

29. Rosstat. Historical range of grain harvest

30. Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia. State report on the state of the environment

31. Rosstat. Environmental protection

32. Ministry of Transport of Russia. Implementation of the Transport Strategy

33. President of Russia. Decree No. 309 on national objectives

End of document

YEARS

Summary for decisions

• China for 130 The country has moved from the disintegration of monetary and territorial ties to the largest production and electrical system in the world; its new deficit is demographics, domestic demand, housing and feedback.
• The United States has created the strongest link between federal science, entrepreneurship, capital, standards and allied networks; their weak point is debt, uneven infrastructure and the separation of financial and technological flows from social reproduction.
• Russia adds resource depth, nuclear-space and heavy engineering competencies, geographical stability; limitation is the weak transformation of strategic reserves into diversified civilian flows.
• The basic structural scenario ≈$1,00 trillion Net Annual Use 2035 the Year After 20%- his deduction of overlaps and ≈$4,49 trillion NPV the National Park 2026–2035. Conservative independent scrutiny ≈$0,60 trillion per year and ≈$4,02 trillion NPV.
• Nuclear, climate, epidemiological and technological tail risk are not monetized. Therefore, the monetary model is deliberately incomplete and rather underestimates the social value of safe coordination.

How to read EQUILIBRIUM

EQUILIBRIUM - not equality of forces and not the absence of conflict. It is the ability of the system to reproduce itself without destroying its own reserves, legitimacy and environment.

Author's analytical framework; indicators are normalized relative to a safe corridor.

The Index Formula

E = 100 × ∏(sᵢ / 100)ʷⁱ. Geometric mean deliberately makes a weak measurement significant: high GDP cannot fully compensate for demographic failure or strategic instability.

Methods and limits of comparison

• 1896 is the beginning of the horizon, but the first hard points often refer to 1900, 1910 or 1913 years.
• Until 1950, Chinese GDP was an academic reconstruction of Maddison Project Database 2023 rather than official statistics. International dollars 2011 should not be mixed with current dollars.
• Mainland China, the Republic of China, the occupied territories, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan have different coverage in sources. The tables show the nearest comparable points.
• For the United States, federal debt, gross government debt, public debt, and non-financial corporations are different perimeters; they are not summed up mechanically.
• 2026 is the date of the publication cut. The last complete annual fact in most series is 2025; the forecast IMF on 2026 is not used as an observation.
• Scenario calculation of synchronization is a transparent model of the range, not a forecast, not an estimate of budget income and not a recommendation of a political union.

China: map of 130-year transition

Periodization is authorial; actual supports are given on subsequent pages.

Source: World Bank WDI [S08] Urbanization schedule is used for continuity WDI/UN; official NBS 2025 — 67,89%.

China: 1896–1911 — Late Qing: modernization without sovereign control

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Stocks of knowledge and infrastructure arose, but external dependence and low fiscal capacity did not allow them to turn into mass income.

Meaning

Sovereignty without a mechanism for coordinating capital, territory and information remained declarative.

China: 1912–1927 — Republic: faster than the state networks

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Market flows accelerated, but the central state did not provide a single money, security and infrastructure standard.

Meaning

The economic network is able to live at a weak center - but almost unable to amortize war and systemic shock.

China: 1928–1936 - Nanjing Decade: Short State Assembly

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Investment and monetization accelerated, but the budget did not exceed about 8,8% GDP, and assets were concentrated on the coast.

Meaning

Institutions began to synchronize knowledge and the state; the margin of safety was less than the external threat.

China: 1937–1949 - War and hyperinflation: the destruction of capital and trust

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

The issue replaced the budget, the relocation replaced reproduction, and the military logic replaced investment.

Meaning

Hyperinflation has turned the military deficit into a crisis of legitimacy: without trust, cash flow ceases to coordinate exchange.

China: 1949–1957 - Recovery and Five-Year Plan

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Production and human reserves were rapidly recovering; agriculture and consumption remained subservient to heavy industry.

Meaning

Centralization proved to be effective for the collection of basic capital, but laid the risk of a single plan error.

China: 1958–1962 — Big jump: goal without feedback

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Poor data validation and suppressed feedback have made planned acceleration a source of systemic damage.

Meaning

EQUILIBRIUM requires the right of reality to abolish a political goal; without this power turns into the destruction of reproduction.

China: 1963–1965 — Correction: V-shaped recovery

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Proportions and incentives restored the flow without changing the political regime.

Meaning

Sustainability is not determined by the absence of errors, but by the speed of recognizing the error and restoring feedback.

China: 1966–1978 — Fortress balance and strategic capabilities

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Autonomy and heavy infrastructure increased; services, labor mobility, and critical scientific environments lagged behind.

Meaning

CAS helped create the atomic bomb, satellite, synthetic insulin and other results, but could not compensate for the closure of universities and the destruction of verification.

China: 1978–1991 — Reforms: Release of Hidden Productivity

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

The main resource is not new capital, but the removal of administrative blockages from labor, agricultural surplus and local initiative.

Meaning

The reform showed that a combination of the market and the strategic state can increase the flow without instantaneous loss of controllability.

China: 1992–2001 - Institutional assembly before the WTO

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Market institutions and infrastructure have prepared an export push; the price is layoffs, the regional gap and weak social protection.

Meaning

By the time China joined the WTO, it was already a system of market coordination and long-term state capital, not just a “cheap factory.”

China: 2001–2008 - WTO and Export-Investment Supercycle

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

The surpluses increased the external buffer, but low consumption and emissions carried some of the costs into the future and beyond the balance sheet.

Meaning

External demand is able to accelerate modernization, but does not replace internal reproduction of income and environment.

China: 2009–2019 — Credit, infrastructure and digital platforms

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Infrastructure has become a real asset; local debt and real estate a deferred liability.

Meaning

China has moved from export dependence to domestic investment, while maintaining a high capacity for execution.

China: 2020–2026 — Technological maximum and reproduction deficit

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Manufacturing and technology stock is record; bottlenecks are population, domestic demand, housing, debt, and household confidence.

Meaning

The next stage requires shifting the center of gravity from “investment + exports” to income, social protection and productivity.

China: what the Academy of Sciences has changed

The Chinese Academy of Sciences has been particularly strong as an integrator of strategic tasks: fundamental physics, atomic and space programs, materials, biology, geology, and expert support for industrial policy. Its contribution was not to “create GDP in general” but to reduce the uncertainty and time between task, research, prototype, and scaling.

• Strong institutional linkage: strategic challenge → academic institute → engineering circuit → industrial scaling.
• The verifiable symbolic results of the Maoist period: the atomic bomb (1964), Crystalline insulin (1965), The hydrogen bomb (1967), satellite (1970), hybrid rice and artemisinin.
• The main limit: the Academy cannot replace true statistics, autonomous verification and reproduction of personnel. The closure of universities and violations of 1966–1970 years showed this boundary.
• Modern challenge: the share of basic research — 7,08% R & D 2025 year; an increase in the overall budget does not automatically mean an adequate supply of open basic science.

USA: map of 130-year transition

Periodization is authorial; the ranks of population, education, R&D, energy, and debt have different sources.

USA: 1896–1916 — Mass production and national market

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Industrial scale, immigration and national networks have created a flow faster than social protection and financial supervision.

USA: 1917–1929 - Electrification, consumer credit and vulnerability

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Electricity and mass consumption increased productivity; the credit superstructure became a source of instability.

USA: 1929–1945 — Depression, New Deal, and Mobilization

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

The state became the balancer of last resort; military mobilization restored output, but through emergency mode and debt.

USA: 1945–1971 — Wide post-war EQUILIBRIUM

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

Productivity growth, mass education, infrastructure, science, and income distribution were synchronized better than in subsequent periods.

USA: 1971–2000 — Dollar, financial and digital networks

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

After the abandonment of gold, trust was monetized through the dollar, capital markets, technology, and regulations; production gradually lost relative weight.

USA: 2001–2019 — Global optionality and the price of financial leverage

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

The dollar, technology, and markets allowed the deficit to be financed; the crisis of 2008 showed the price of separating financial flows from asset quality.

USA: 2020–2026 - Energy and scientific power in debt and aging

Numbers are control points; boundaries and techniques are given in the third column.

Diagnosis EQUILIBRIUM

US preserves advanced science, energy, capital, and networks; constraints include debt, uneven infrastructure, aging, and rapid growth in energy demand AI.

USA: scientific and innovative contour

The American model is not one “academy”, but a distributed ecosystem: federal agencies formulate missions and purchase results; universities produce fundamental knowledge and personnel; entrepreneurs and the capital market scale; standards and allied networks expand the foreign market.

• The advantage is a high innovative option: a lot of parallel experiments and a quick transfer of a successful solution to capital and standards.
• Vulnerability is the separation of financial valuation from the quality of a physical asset, demonstrated by the crisis of 2008.
• A new balance sheet challenge is the energy intensity of computing and AI: scientific flow is growing, but requires power grids, generation, water, personnel and local consent.
• Federal debt raises the cost of choice: innovative and defense commitments compete with debt service and an aging population.

Three Powers: The Scale That Makes Coordination Systemic

Source: World BankS19–S21] Nominal GDP — $52,829 trillion, or 44,6% world; PPP amount — $79,265 trillion, or about 37,5% World.

Trade turnover counts exports and imports and therefore contains a double bill. The energy estimate depends on the substitution method.

Meanings of three systems: not character, but an optimized function

Analytical ideal types; not a statement of a fixed national character.

The benefits of synchronization: model and formulas

The basic economy of the three countries in 2025 the Year Y₂₅ = $52,829 trillion With real growth 2,2% Conditional scale per year 2035 years Y₃₅ = $65,672 trillion The net effect in 2035 the Year:

Net₃₅ = F + 0,8 × (EL + S) + D − C

Parameters are the author's scenario assumptions; external sources only specify the order of the bases and the permissible range of damage.

How much synchronization

Author's model. Structural Scenarios - Effect to 2035; Conservative Cut - Independent verification of sustainable annual effect.

NPV of the structural model: linear effect growth from 10% to 100%, real rate 3%; coefficient 4,4839.

Basic scenario: F=$0,788 trillion; EL=$0,202 trillion and S=$0,076 trillion to 20%- his deduction; D=$0,044 trillion; C=$0,053 trillion

What is not monetized

New START expired in February 2026; SIPRI highlights the rise in nuclear uncertainty [S23].

IMF Assesses long-term losses from geo-economic fragmentation in the range 0,2% — almost 7% technological gap for individual countries - up to 12% GDP. WTO It shows almost 7% long-term loss of world GDP in a rigid two-block scenario. These estimates set the upper frame, but do not mean that tripartite coordination automatically prevents all damageS24–S25]

Secure Synchronization Architecture

Protective conditions

• The narrow subject of each agreement and the symmetry of the test result.
• Common basic data set, independent verification and public methodology.
• Step-by-step reversible pilots; automatic review or suspension in case of violation.
• Preservation of the original intellectual property and pre-defined mode of project IP.
• Civil-military firewall, export control and prohibition of transfer to agreed military categories.
• Diversification of critical supplies: Cooperation should not create monopoly dependence.
• Openness to third countries following the same rules; absence of a closed “directorate of three”.
• Distribution of benefit by proven contribution and prevented damage, not just by political weight.
• Ladder disputes: Technical group → independent examination → political level → proportional suspension.

Scripts 2026–2035

Conclusions

Annex A. Verification of model arithmetic

The rounding may give a difference in the last sign.

Annex B. Sources

Primary and authoritative sources. Date of access: 27 August 2026.

[S01] Maddison Project Database 2023: Historical GDP and Population

[S02] NBS China: Statistical communiqué for 2025

[S03] NBS China: GDP and real rates 1952–1978

[S04] NBS China: demographic retrospective

[S05] China Statistical Yearbook: Industrial Products

[S06] NBS China: foreign trade, historical series

[S07] NBS China: Statistical communiqué for 2019

[S08] World Bank WDI: China, macroeconomic indicators

[S09] IMF: China 2025 Article IV Consultation

[S10] CAS: official profile of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

[S11] WIPO: PCT Yearly Review 2026

[S12] U.S. Census Bureau: Historical Tables of Population and Urbanization

[S13] BEA: National Income and Product Accounts

[S14] Federal Reserve History: The Creation of the Fed and the Great Depression

[S15] U.S. Department of Education/NCES: Digest of Education Statistics

[S16] NSF/NCSES: R&D and research publications, 2024

[S17] U.S. Treasury/Fiscal Data: Federal Government Debt

[S18] EIA: Monthly Energy Review and Electricity Data

[S19] World Bank: comparison of the USA, China and Russia

[S20World Bank: Global GDP and the Three Powers

[S21] World Bank: PPP GDP

[S22] SIPRI: World military expenditures in 2025

[S23] SIPRI Yearbook 2026: Nuclear Weapons and the End of the New START

[S24] IMF: the range of losses from geoeconomic fragmentation

[S25] WTO: The scenario of dividing the world economy into two blocks

[S26] WTO: Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025

[S27] BEA: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, 2024

[S28] Energy Institute: Statistical Review of World Energy

[S29] Global Carbon Budget / Our World in Data: territorial emissions CO₂

[S30] Academia Sinica: Inshu's excavations

[S31] Bank of China: hyperinflation 1946–1949 years

[S32] PMC: Great Chinese Famine — Grain and Demographic Estimates

[S33] WIPO: World Intellectual Property Indicators 2025

[S34] U.S. Census Bureau: population clock/data

[S35] World Bank: Russia — macroeconomic profile

Annex C. Terms and reservations

End of document

China and the United States in 130 years

Table of contents

All figures are provided with the indication of the territory and source; roundings are indicated by the sign ≈.

Summary for decision

Five conclusions

• Physical scale is a necessary but insufficient condition for sustainability. USSR has created huge capacities, but by 1980 the return on additional resources was decreasing.

• The most successful technological breakthroughs occurred where fundamental science, government order, project management and serial production acted as a single circuit.

• The Academy has had the strongest influence on the measurement of territory and resources, the preparation of scientific schools, the formulation of complex tasks and expertise. It could not fix monetary, price, or political imbalances on its own.

• The most severe failures were the simultaneous rupture of several circuits: 1914–1921, 1941–1945, 1988–1998. The local deficit became systemic when the synchronization of transport, money, property, and data stopped.

• For horizon 2026–2035, it is not a single index of well-being that is needed, but a register of stocks, flows, standards and stress scenarios with explicit responsibility for data and decisions.

Methodology: how to read 130-year-old series

Unit of analysis

The national balance sheet is the reconciliation of stock, flow, reproduction and risk. Eight contours are considered for each era: population, food, energy, resources, industry and capital, infrastructure, finance and external account, knowledge and technology.

Major Comparability Gaps

• The territory: the census of 1897 did not include Finland; the Soviet ranks of 1913 are often recalculated within the future boundaries of USSR.

• Population: early censuses used the available population, later - permanent; the definition of the city changed.

• Prices: gold, Soviet and modern ruble are not comparable without special reconstructions. Preference is given to physical quantities.

• Science: "scientists" USSR and "R&D personnel" of the Russian Federation are close, but not identical in scope.

• Causality: The participation of the Academy is separated from the decision of the state and from the actual industrial effect.

Estimated accents

Electricity USSR has grown from 1,94 billion KW·H in 1913 the Year 1 705 billion KW·H in 1988 year, approximately in 879 One. This factor shows the scale of energy consumption, but does not measure well-being and is not transferred to the Russian Federation after 1991 years.

Map of 11 epochs

Periodization principle: the boundary of the epoch is put where the mechanism of resource coordination changes - monetary regime, property, planning, mobilization, external contour or the architecture of science.

1. 1896–1913 Imperial modernization

Numerical passport of the era

1. 1896–1913 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The Academy created maps, classifications, scientific schools and resource exploration. V 1910 The Radiation Commission was established in the 1915 KEPS: prototype of a bundle "resource register - scientific expertise - state order".

The National Balance

2. 1914–1921 War, revolution and disintegration of economic relations

Numerical passport of the era

Role of the Academy of Sciences

KEPS searched for strategic raw materials and coordinated specialists, but did not manage the budget, transport or distribution. Its most important effect was postponed: institutional groundwork passed into the Soviet period.

The National Balance

3. 1922–1928 NEP and Recovery

Numerical passport of the era

3. 1922–1928 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The KEPS and its resulting Council for the Study of Productive Forces linked geology, industrial location, and electrification. The KEPS/SOPS subsequently established 16 institutes.

The National Balance

4. 1929–1940 Forced Industrialization

Numerical passport of the era

Role of the Academy of Sciences

Academic expeditions and institutions have reduced uncertainty on raw materials, energy, metallurgy, and placement. The scientific network became part of the planned circuit, but decisions about the pace and price of industrialization were made politically.

The National Balance

5. 1941–1945 Military mobilization balance

Numerical passport of the era

5. 1941–1945 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The Academy provided a fast cycle of "task front - laboratory solution - implementation": demagnetization of ships, radar, ice track safety, medicine, nuclear reserve. These are testable cases, not grounds for attributing the entire military result to science.

The National Balance

Verified case: FTI during the war

Summer 1941 the FTI 's 18 Laboratories and more 300 staff. Commission led by N. N. Semenova 847 proposals in the first two months. In Kazan evacuated 8 laboratories and about 70 employees; in the Leningrad group remained 103 Human. The results included demagnetization of ships, pulse radar and devices for safe driving on the ice trackS13].

6. 1946–1964 Recovery and technological breakthrough

Numerical passport of the era

6. 1946–1964 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The academic environment was at the core of cross-industry projects: physics, mathematics, chemistry, materials science and geology combined with closed KB and industry. The creation of SO AN USSR brought the research closer to the resource base of Siberia.

The National Balance

7. 1965–1985 Mature USSR: scale and decreasing efficiency

Numerical passport of the era

7. 1965–1985 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The Academy provided a fundamental base of defense, space, energy and geological programs. The weak link was the transition from the result of the institute to mass civil technology and productivity.

The National Balance

8. 1986–1991 Alteration and decay of a single contour

Numerical passport of the era

8. 1986–1991 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The scientific complex remained large, but depended on the federal budget, customers and chains of cooperation. The Academy could diagnose problems, but not replace the mechanism of prices, budget and political coordination.

The National Balance

9. 1992–1999 Transition shock of the Russian Federation

Numerical passport of the era

9. 1992–1999 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The Academy has maintained schools and continuity with a sharp reduction in funding and staff outflows. Its contribution of the period is the preservation of a critical mass of competencies, and not compensation for the macroeconomic recession.

The National Balance

10. 2000–2013 Stabilization and resource and financial strengthening

Numerical passport of the era

10. 2000–2013 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The RAS maintained a fundamental school and expert function, but the gap between research, universities, public corporations, and private business remained significant.

The National Balance

11. 2014–2026 Adaptation and structural rotation

Numerical passport of the era

11. 2014–2026 Numerical passport — continuation

Role of the Academy of Sciences

After the reform of 2013, the RAS does not manage most of the institutes as before, but remains a center of expertise, coordination and scientific representation. The scale of the examination is more than 80 thousand conclusions for more than 1 000 organizations, including 661 institute and university.

The National Balance

End-to-end balance 1. Population and urbanization

Sources: Rosstat [S03], [S25]. The series refers to the territory of modern Russia; the early points have been reconstructed. The proportion of 2025 is rounded.

A long trend is the transition from rural to urban society. After the 1990s, the population hovers around 143–147 million, but the birthrate of 1,222 million versus 1,819 million deaths in 2024 shows a reproduction deficit. Therefore, the stability of the total population is not equal to the demographic balance.

End-to-end balance 2. Energy as a system framework

Sources: historical series [S08], [S15]; modern results [S32]. Rows USSR and the Russian Federation are divided due to the territorial gap.

GOELRO was not just a plan for power plants: it linked the location of productive forces, fuel, networks and industrial hubs. K 2025 the Russian Federation 1 183,9 billion KW·h at the installed capacity 270,3 GWh. Modern risk has shifted from absolute power shortage to reliability of networks, equipment and availability of power for new industries.

End-to-end balance 3. Physical scale of the industry

Sources: [S07]–[S09], [S15] Index 1913 = 100; logarithmic scale; Soviet recalculations 1913 Years in the Future Frontiers USSR.

K 1985 Electricity production was approximately 796 times higher 1913 Oil, about a year 58 once, became — in 37 Once, coal in 25 One. The pace difference shows the change of the technological core: from the coal-metallurgical base to the oil and gas and electric power system.

End-to-end balance 4. Scientific staff

Sources: [S16], [S29], [S30]. The indicators differ in methodology, so the panels are not connected.

V USSR The number of scientists has more than doubled 1965 and 1985 years. R&D staff in Russia has declined 1,061 Millions in 1995 Year to approximately 676 thousands in 2024 the Year - in 36%. At the cost 0,97% GDP in 2024 Quantitative reproduction of the research circuit remains a limitation.

End-to-end balance 5. Where the tension builds up

Expert synthesis of the author based on numerical passports. This is not an official statistical index.

Critical epochs coincide with the loss of coordination of several systems at once. In the years 1914–1921 and 1992–1999, the financial and institutional gap increased production. In 1941–1945, the external threat was maximum, but centralized mobilization retained the controllability of critical flows.

How the Academy of Sciences Affected National Balance Sheets

Eight institutional milestones

Limits of Academic Influence

• Academy does not set prices, taxes and interest rates; therefore, it is not able to restore the cash balance on its own.

• Scientific discovery is not equal to implementation: we need a customer, pilot production, standards, capital and responsibility for the serial result.

• The Academy is not the whole science of the country. Universities, industry institutes, design bureaus, factory laboratories and departmental services have independent contributions.

• A strong dependence on the budget and personnel policy makes the Academy both a pillar of the state and a vulnerable part of the long investment cycle.

• Quantitative metrics of publications and conclusions do not replace estimates of the real technological effect.

Project proposal: Academic Register of National Balance Sheets

Minimum set of indicators

• Demographics: population by age, healthy life expectancy, migration, availability of key professions.

• Energy and resources: available capacity, network constraints, inventory by category, time of development and import dependence of equipment.

• Food and water: release, shifting stocks, logistics, regional deficits, climate sensitivity.

• Science and technology: age researchers, equipment, critical competencies, time from result to series.

• Finance: investment, long credit, external account, budget sensitivity to raw material prices.

Road map 2026–2035

The First Three Pilots

Annex 1. Population control points

Source: [S03], [S25]. Values are rounded; by 1959, the type of population accounting is changing.

Annex 2. Electricity and base industry USSR

Sources: [S07]–[S09], [S15] Sign ≈ means the rounding or rounding of close official rows. Point 1913 Usually counted in future borders USSR.

Annex 3. Scientific personnel and institutional points

Sources: [S16], [S29], [S31], [S35]. The Soviet and Russian indicators are not completely identical.

Annex 4. Sources

Priority is given to official statistics, primary historical collections and materials of state scientific organizations. The links are checked for the date of preparation.

[S01] First general census of the Russian Empire: the original codex of the Central Committee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs

[S02] Presidential Library: First Census 1897

[S03] Rosstat: historical number and share of urban population in the territory of modern Russia

[S04] Rosstat: census history, literacy and infrastructure

[S05] Bank of Russia: History of the Monetary System and the State Bank

[S06] Bulletin of the Bank of Russia: State Bank balance sheet and gold at 1 January 1914

[S07] MSU: database on Russian industry and USSR

[S08] Isthmath: electricity production USSR, 1913–1950

[S09] National economy USSR: industry, historical series up to 1955 years

[S10] Ministry of Energy of Russia: history of GOELRO plan

[S11] Presidential Library: Creation of KEPS

[S12] RAS: KEPS, Council for the Study of Productive Forces and Established Institutions

[S13] RAS: The Great Patriotic War in the history of FTI

[S14] Rosstat: "Victory figures"

[S15] National economy USSR in 1987: official statistical yearbook

[S16] Isthmat: number of scientists USSR

[S17] Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences: history of creation

[S18] Research Center "Kurchatov Institute": the history of Laboratory No 2

[S19] Roscosmos: the key dates of domestic space exploration

[S20] RAS: 300 years of history, institutional changes of the Academy

[S21] RAS: statute and general provisions; restoration of RAS in 1991

[S22] Federal Law No. 253-FZ of 27.09.2013

[S23] Rosstat: National Accounts and GDP Dynamics

[S24] Rosstat: prices and inflation

[S25] Rosstat: demography

[S26] Rosstat: natural population movement for the year 2024

[S27] Rosstat: historical indicators of poverty

[S28] Rosstat: preliminary poverty assessment for the year 2025

[S29] Rosstat: science, innovation and technology

[S30] Rosstat: a historical series of personnel engaged in research and development

[S31] HSE ISSEZ: Research and Development Costs in 2024

[S32] Ministry of Energy of Russia: results of fuel and energy sector activity for 2025 year

[S33] Bank of Russia: international reserves of the Russian Federation

[S34] Bank of Russia: balance of payments of the Russian Federation

[S35] RAS: report on the activities and scale of scientific expertise

[S36] Russian Railways: the history of the Trans-Siberian Railway

Balances of Russia for 130 years

1. Basic idea

A personal or personal fund in the EH system is considered as a long-term contour of the accumulation, management and targeted use of value associated with a particular person, family, genus, name, scientific school, cultural heritage, social mission or project.

The Fund does not replace the bank account and does not mean an independent issue of the state currency. It is an accounting and contractual shell, which records assets, rights, obligations, income, target costs, results of intellectual activity, social and natural effect.

2. Why we need personal and personal funds

• Preservation of the result of human labor and intellectual capital in time.
• Separation of current consumption and development capital.
• Formation of a transparent hereditary and charitable architecture.
• Funding for education, science, culture, health, family and long-term projects.
• Protection of the purpose of assets at the expense of the rules of the fund, audit and multi-level control.
• Relationship of financial result to the mission of a person, family, family or social project.

3. Typology of funds

4. Passport of the Fund

Each fund receives a digital passport in the EG Metareister. The passport should contain not only money, but also the meaning, origin and limitations of use.

• Foundation ID and legal shell.
• Founder, beneficiaries and management bodies.
• Mission and list of acceptable goals.
• Composition of assets: money, securities, shares, real estate, RID/OIC, digital rights, collections, archives.
• Sources of income and distribution rules.
• Minimum reserve and investment policy.
• Rules of inheritance, succession and termination.
• MSK-value code, TX-codes of operations and indicators of Live Balance.
• Outline of compliance, audit, conflict of interest and protection.

5. The architecture of personal capital

It is proposed to divide personal capital into independent baskets so that current expenses do not destroy the capital of the future:

• Vital reserve is basic liquidity and shock protection.
• Capital of development - education, advanced training, research.
• Investment capital is long-term investments.
• Intellectual capital - rights to RID, copyright and license income.
• Social capital - contribution to social and family projects.
• Natural capital - participation in the restoration of ecosystems and territories.
• Inherited capital is assets intended for future generations.

6. Name Fund as a Heritage Institute

The fund allows you to separate the identity and its legacy from the current owner of the assets. It may support a science school, museum, library, prize, scholarship program, archive, laboratory, cultural center, or community mission. The main principle is that the name becomes not a marketing sign, but a responsibility for the continuation of the result.

7. Relationship with the New Financial System

In a model where a person is seen as the primary source of value created, a fund becomes a mechanism for capitalizing a person’s outcome. It is not a person who prints money, but the confirmed result of his activity receives accounting, evaluation, rights and the possibility of financing.

• Labor → confirmed income and professional reputation.
• Knowledge → qualification, educational capital, RID.
• Invention → OIC, license, royalties, fund of the next innovation cycle.
• Social activity → measurable social effect.
• Ecological activity → natural effect in Living Balance.
• Heritage → archive, rights, collections, educational programs.

8. Live Balance Fund

The living balance of the fund should show not only the balance of funds, but also the quality of capital. For each period are recorded:

9. Management and protection

• The principle of two or more signatures for large operations.
• Separation of the founder, manager and controller where necessary.
• Prohibition of hidden conflicts of interest.
• Public or limited report on the intended use - on the regime of the fund.
• Reservation of key documents and rights.
• Antifraud and preliminary control of operations.
• Hereditary protocol and predetermined continuity.

10. Peoples' Funds and Assembly of the Peoples of the World

A separate class is the personal and people's funds of the Assembly. They can accumulate funds and rights to preserve languages, cultural codes, historical archives, traditional knowledge, crafts and natural areas. For each nation, its own heritage passport and a list of programs are formed, but the general methodology of the fund is unified.

11. Encoding in Metareister

Proposed fund identifier format: FUND:EG-[TYPE]-[OWNER]-[YEAR]-[ID]. Each operation additionally receives a TX code and a semantic MSK code.

Example: FUND:EG-NAMED-VERNADSKY-2026-001

Example of operation: TX:EG-FUND001-EDU-S01-D05-20260829-00017

12. Pilot program

• Pilot 1 - Personal Foundation for Human Development.
• Pilot 2 - Three Generation Family Foundation.
• Pilot 3 - Name Scientific Foundation.
• Pilot 4 - RID/OIC Foundation and continuous R&D funding.
• Pilot 5 - One Nation Heritage Foundation within the Assembly.
• Pilot 6 - Foundation for the restoration of a specific ecosystem.

13. Legal regime

The specific legal form of the fund should be determined by the legislation of the relevant jurisdiction. The EG concept does not abolish banking, tax, inheritance, charity, investment and anti-money laundering regulations. The pilot needs a separate legal qualification for each model.

14. Result

Personal and personal funds turn personal, intellectual, family and cultural results into long-term capital. In EH architecture, it is a bridge between man as a source of created value, the Living Balance, the Metareister, the heritage of ancestors and the financial system of future generations.

A system in which money serves development

It is not a single world currency that is offered, but a compatible multi-level financial infrastructure.

Five project solutions

Status: author's strategic concept. It is not a decision of an international organization, monetary policy, legal opinion or investment recommendation.

03 / DIAGNOSIS

Why the current system needs an add-on

Project conclusion: reform cannot be reduced to registry technology. What is needed is both right, central bank money, regulated deposits, a single data model, risk management and a clear public purpose.

04 / DOCTRINE

Twelve Principles of Design

05 / ARCHITECTURE

The seven interconnected layers

Dependency rule: innovation on the top layer cannot weaken the legal certainty and quality of the settlement asset on the bottom layers.

06 / TOOLS

Money stack: what is saved and what is added

07 / MAN

Name fund: financial contour of personal development

Name Fund is not a “wallet of free money”, but a portable contractual outline of goals, rights, sources and results. It can combine public appropriations, private contributions, insurance coverage, educational capital, project income, and charitable funds.

08 / EMISSION

The rule of permissible expansion: value before limit

Eₜ ≤ min(ΔVᵛᵉʳₜ, CFᵉˡᵢᵍₜ, Pᵃᵖᵖʳₜ) − Rₜ − Lₜ

09 / MATHEMATICS

741: engineering implementation matrix

Nineteen subject contours

741 is neither a mystical number nor an automatic algorithm of truth. This is a completeness map: it shows where the data is missing, the decision owner, the risk buffer, or proof of outcome.

10 / CYCLES

260 and 13 phases: from meaning to adjustment

The “Ledger” uses 260 as a map of a complete cycle of meaning: 20 archetypes × 13 tones. Within the financial architecture, this is not a calendar prediction but a discipline of classification: who acts, in which phase, on what basis and with what proven effect.

11 / LEDGER

Evidence-based register of value movement

A ledger is not just an accounting record and not necessarily a single blockchain. It is a federated data model in which legal documents can be stored by owners, and the common layer contains verifiable links, statuses, signatures, and version hashes.

12 / MANAGEMENT

The Institutional Scheme: Federation, Not the Global Monopolist

13 / LAW

Legal compatibility before scaling

FATF highlights a risk-based approach to digital identity and virtual assets; PFMI — requirements for management, risk, finality and operational sustainability5][6][7]

14 / RISKS

Red team: how the system can fail

15 / PILOT

Four pilots with limited risk

The Agor BIS project has already demonstrated the ability to combine tokenized deposits and reserves on a common platform while maintaining national autonomy and privacy. This confirms the technical direction, but does not replace national legal decisions. [1][3]

16 / ROAD CARD

36 months: from doctrine to working corridor

17 / MEASUREMENT

Results bar: not speed for speed

18 / START PACKAGE

What needs to be approved by the first decision

Concept: Sokolov Sergey Leonidovich • EQUILIBRIUM • Editorial Board 1.0 • 2026

19 / SOURCES

Normative and analytical support

[1] BIS, Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter III: “Anchoring trust in money: innovation beyond stablecoins”.
https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2026e3.htm

[2] Financial Stability Board, G20 Roadmap for Cross-border Payments: Consolidated Progress Report for 2025.
https://www.fsb.org/2025/10/g20-roadmap-for-cross-border-payments-consolidated-progress-report-for-2025/

[3] BIS Innovation Hub, Project Agorá: a shared programmable platform for wholesale cross-border payments, 27 May 2026.
https://www.bis.org/publ/othp110.htm

[4] World Bank, Global Findex Database 2025.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/globalfindex

[5] ISO 20022, official standard overview and repository.
https://www.iso20022.org/iso-20022

[6] FATF, The FATF Recommendations, last updated June 2026.
https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfrecommendations/Fatf-recommendations.html

[7] CPMI–IOSCO, Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures (PFMI).
https://www.bis.org/cpmi/info_pfmi.htm

[8] World Bank, Remittance Prices Worldwide, global average 6.36% (highlight, 2025).
https://remittanceprices.worldbank.org/

[9] IMF, “What is the SDR?”.
https://www.imf.org/en/about/factsheets/sheets/2023/special-drawing-rights-sdr

[10] IMF, Central Bank Digital Currency Virtual Handbook.
https://www.imf.org/en/topics/digital-payments-and-finance/central-bank-digital-currency/virtual-handbook

[11] United Nations, SDG 10.c: remittance costs below 3% and no corridor above 5% by 2030.
https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal10

[12] BIS CPMI, “Tokenisation in the context of money and other assets”, 2024.
https://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d225.pdf

Accessed: 29 August 2026. Official primary sources have been used. The project elements EQUILIBRIUM, Ledger, MURDE, ECO‑PPA, 260 and 741 constitute the author’s concept and are not attributed to the organisations named.

Human-centered architecture of trust, calculation and development