09:27 11.10.2018
Economy
Conceptual foundations of the new strategy of social and economic development of Dagestan
Abbas Akhmeduev D.E., Professor
Issue - 2018 No269-270
Version for the visually impaired
695
Large-scale work has been launched in the republic to develop a strategy for the socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan until 2035. With the involvement of experts and the general public, strategic sessions are held to discuss problems and determine priorities for the long-term socio-economic development of the republic.
We must first discuss and adopt the concept of a new strategy
Strategic sessions are very useful work and are essentially a sociological survey aimed at identifying and forming public opinion on certain topical issues of economic and social development. The results of such strategic sessions can, of course, be taken into account in the formulation of the strategy in some form.
But strategic planning, the development of strategic documents in accordance with the Federal law of 28.06.2014 City No 172-FZ "On strategic planning in the Russian Federation" requires a deep systematic analysis of the state of the economy, forecasting and fundamental justification of strategic decisions. The Strategy of the Republic of Dagestan is a legislatively approved strategic planning document that defines the priorities, goals and objectives of economic and social development for the long term. The quantitative and qualitative indicators provided for in the strategy, their guaranteed achievement in the planned time will determine the state and pace of development of the economy, the level and quality of life of the entire population of the republic and each Dagestani.
The strategy of Dagestan as a formalized directive of long-term goals and the dominant organization of life activity is of crucial importance for the entire Dagestani society and every citizen. It follows that the strategy is not only a key lever of state and municipal governance. At all stages in the development and implementation of strategic documents for the development of the republic, municipalities, territories, sectors of the economy and the social sphere, citizens should take an active part. Therefore, it would be advisable to first develop and widely discuss in society, at strategic sessions, in the expert community, etc., the concept of a strategy in which to reveal real modern key problems, to determine the main long-term strategic goals and priorities for the socio-economic development of the republic. On the basis of such a concept, agreed upon and approved by the majority of the population, it is advisable to develop strategic planning documents for the long term.
It is necessary to justify the objective need for a new strategy
The concept should first of all justify the need for a new Strategy, provided the existence and functioning of the legally approved Strategy for Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Dagestan until 2025 (Strategy RD - 2025). There must be good reasons for repealing the law approving the current RD-2025 Strategy. It is advisable to discuss and publish them, especially since the current Strategy of RD - 2025 as an instrument of public administration has not yet exhausted itself, not all the tasks envisaged in it have been solved, and the goals are still far from being achieved.
However, the development and subsequent adjustment of the RD 2025 strategy should be taken into account and used in the formulation of the new strategy. It would be advisable to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of the main strategic indicators for the first stage (2015) and, possibly, for individual indicators (for example, for GRP) - for the second stage (2020).
The most superficial analysis of the progress of the RD strategy - 2025 shows that many strategic indicators planned for the stage up to 2015,
Not implemented. For example, the industry has not achieved the most important indicators both in terms of growth and production volumes. The manufacturing industry has been particularly unsuccessful, with output growth of less than 45% to the strategic plan under the optimistic scenario. Also, the strategic guidelines for reducing the subsidy budget, the income of the consolidated budget per capita, the growth of real wages, the level of general unemployment and some other key indicators of the development of the social sphere have not been achieved.
A deeper analysis will avoid the shortcomings that existed in the development of the RD Strategy - 2025, objectively assess the planned indicators adopted then, reveal real potential, justify strategic goals and priorities for a new long-term perspective.
What is the time horizon of a new strategy?
One of the conceptual issues that require reflection and justification is the definition of the time horizon of the new strategy of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan. The need for and possibility of adopting a strategy for the period up to 2035 should be thoroughly discussed and justified. The fact is that a strategy for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2030 is being developed. Accordingly, strategies for the development of macroregions (federal districts) of Russia until 2030 will be drawn up and adopted. According to the Federal Law "On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation", the strategies of socio-economic development of macro-regions, constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities should be interconnected and consistent with the priorities and goals of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. Accordingly, the strategy of socio-economic development of the NCFD will be developed before 2030 in conjunction with the strategy of the Russian Federation.
It will be difficult, if not impossible, to link the strategy of the RD up to 2035, respectively, the strategic goals and priorities of the republic's development with the strategy of the North-Eastern Federal District up to 2030. This, in turn, can cause difficulties for the republic’s participation in federal programs, in the implementation of national projects (programs) developed in accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 7 May 2018 of 204 (May Decree of the President of the Russian Federation 2018), etc.
For Dagestan, active participation in these and other programs and projects of the Russian Federation and the North Caucasus Federal District is extremely important in order to obtain and use resources from these sources for socio-economic development and solving strategic problems. That is why it is advisable to thoroughly discuss and conceptually solve the issue of the time horizon of the new strategy of socio-economic development of the RD.
It should also be borne in mind that the regions of Russia, for example, St. Petersburg, the Republic of Tatarstan, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Sverdlovsk, Samara, Irkutsk, Tomsk, Arkhangelsk regions, etc., have strategies until 2030. Obviously, such a time horizon is optimal for strategic planning, given the intensive processes of globalization, changes in technological patterns, geopolitical and economic instability in the world. At the same time, it is advisable to predict the socio-economic development of RD not only up to 2030, but also for a longer period, for example, up to 2040, and for individual indicators, possibly up to 2050.
Strategic planning of socio-economic development of municipalities is necessary
The issue of strategic planning of socio-economic development at the level of municipalities is of fundamental importance. The Federal Law "On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation" provides that strategic planning in the Russian Federation is carried out at the federal level, the level of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the level of municipalities (Article 1). Contrary to the initial provisions of the Federal Law, strategic planning at the municipal level is not carried out in the Republic of Dagestan and strategic documents for the long-term socio-economic development of municipalities are not developed as stipulated by the Federal Law. The lack of a coherent integrated system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of the republic and municipalities is one of the main factors of disunity of goals and objectives of the management structures of the republican and municipal levels, hence the inefficiency of the entire system of organization and management of economic and social development of the republic.
The economic and financial condition of the municipalities of the republic urgently requires a cardinal strengthening of their role and responsibility for long-term sustainable socio-economic development, modernization and improvement of the efficiency of the entire system of municipal administration. The basis of such modernization, strengthening manageability and ensuring breakthrough socio-economic development at the municipal level can be the system of strategic planning. A long-term strategy for each municipality should become an important tool for restructuring the management system, sustainable socio-economic development, overcoming subsidies, etc. In general, such a system of strategic planning and a corresponding mechanism for implementing strategies at each level should ensure sustainable socio-economic development of municipalities and the republic as a whole.
It is advisable and extremely important to introduce all the provisions and legal norms on strategic planning at the level of municipalities into the Law of the Republic of Dagestan.
At the same time, in order to ensure uniformity, harmonization and interconnection of strategies of the republic and municipalities, it is necessary to discuss and determine the general concept, standard structure of strategic documents, basic indicators and possible scenarios for the long-term socio-economic development of municipalities. For a clear organization of this work and competent development of strategic documents of municipalities, it is advisable - according to the experience of the Republic of Tatarstan - to develop and approve methodological recommendations for strategic planning of socio-economic development at the level of municipal districts (urban districts) of the Republic of Dagestan.
The main strategic goal of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan
One of the key conceptual issues that require broad discussion is the definition of the main strategic goal of the socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan for the long-term perspective. All directions and priorities of development, respectively, the structure and content of strategic documents, should be subordinated to the justification, specification, resource support and the formation of a mechanism for the implementation of the main strategic goal.
The Republic has all the natural, labor and production resources for breakthrough development and overcoming the lag. It is necessary to radically modernize the organization of the economic complex and the system of state and municipal administration
When determining the main strategic goal of the Republic of Dagestan, it is necessary to take into account that in the conditions of globalization and open world market, Russian, including Dagestani republican, markets become segments of the global world market. The economy of Dagestan, as well as Russia as a whole, needs to ensure competitiveness in this global market. At the same time, the republic will have to take an active part in the implementation of the May decree of the President of the Russian Federation 2018. "On national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024", where among others set a very ambitious task to become one of the five largest economies in the world and to accelerate the technological development of the Russian Federation. In order to fulfill such a difficult task, Russia and its regions, including Dagestan, need to overcome the lag and make a breakthrough in economic, social and technological development.
Vladimir Putin in his Address to the Federal Assembly (1 March 2018) stressed: “It is the backlog that is the main threat and our enemy. And if we do not change the situation, it will inevitably intensify.” The lagging behind of the developed countries in terms of socio-economic and technological development poses a real threat not only to Russia’s economic, but also to its military-strategic security. According to the latest international comparisons, according to the key indicator of GDP per capita at purchasing power parity in US dollars, Russia lags behind Luxembourg 3,9 times, Norway 2,6 times, Sweden 2,4 times, the United States 2,1 times.
Of particular concern should be Russia’s technical and technological backwardness, which, in the context of globalization and an open world market, inevitably entails uncompetitiveness and the gradual extinction of certain industries and sectors of the economy. According to foreign experts, for example, in the US economy, the share of the fourth technological order is 20%, Fifth – 60% and the sixth – 5%, In Russia, it is still 30% – Economics of the Third Technological Order, 50% Fourth and all 10% The fifth, and to the sixth technological order of the Russian economy has not yet reached. Judging by these data, the Russian economy needs to overcome the technical gap with the United States in about one technological way.
With such a lag of Russia from the developed countries of the world, Dagestan as a result of 2016 The country lags behind the average Russian level in almost all macroeconomic indicators. Dagestan lags behind in per capita indicators: GRP 2,4 The amount of industrial output in 20 The cost of fixed assets in 2,5 the amount of investment in fixed assets - in 1,4 Productivity and productivity in 1,7 once. At the same time, the share of innovative goods, works and services in the total volume shipped in Russia was 8,5%, the Republic of Dagestan – 0,4% (Less in 21,3 the share of organizations that implement technological innovations, – 8,4% and 2,5% (Less in 3,4 a) respectively.
This state of the economy inevitably led to an insufficient revenue base and a budget-system deficit, together with lagging social development and living standards in the republic. Subsidies account for 76% of the consolidated budget. The average monthly nominal wage is lower than the Russian average by a factor of 1.8; unemployment is almost twice as high; and consolidated budget expenditure per capita is lower by a factor of 2 than the average across Russian regions. Non-monetary indicators of living standards add to this picture: in Dagestan, total housing floor area per resident is lower than the Russian average by a factor of 1.3, and the number of privately owned cars per 1000 residents is lower by a factor of 1.7. This is a broad, far from complete picture of Dagestan’s economic and social lag.
The development and placement of industry in rural areas is an important factor in ensuring employment of the rural population, reducing migration, securing the population in areas and rural settlements.
Such a large-scale, stable, continuing for almost three decades, lag of socio-economic development poses a threat to socio-political stability and security not only for Dagestan, but also for the entire Russian Federation. The gap in the level of development, the existing social stratification and inequality of citizens are assessed by the population as a social injustice, and in some circles are considered as the main social factor of socio-political instability, the spread of radicalism, extremism and terrorism.
An even more dangerous consequence of the lag is that tens of thousands of the most active and capable Dagestanis leave the republic every year in search of work and normal modern living conditions. The main motives for the migration of Dagestanis are associated with dissatisfaction with the quality of life in the region, the search for work, and reasons of a personal and family nature. Moreover, from 77% to 80% leaving Dagestan are citizens of working age.
For the last 10 According to official data, the negative balance of migration from Dagestan was 146 Thousands of people, around 117 thousands of working age. If these Dagestanis remained and worked in the republic on average productivity of employed people (609 Rs., could have been 2016 Creating from Above 71 billion rub. GRP and to make in the consolidated budget about 4 billion RUB tax and non-tax payments.
This is a far from incomplete annual economic damage of migration of the population from Dagestan to other regions of Russia and foreign countries. Of course, the current steady migration trend is much more dangerous as a process of resorption of Dagestanis, loss of their identity, and in a certain long-term perspective as a threat of the collapse of Dagestan. Therefore, lagging behind is the main threat and enemy not only of all Russia, but also of Dagestan, of all Dagestani society.
Overcoming these threats, breakthrough development, overcoming the lag and leveling the level of socio-economic development should be considered as the most important strategic task of the authorities and the entire Dagestani society. That is why the head of Dagestan V. Vasilyev in one of his speeches quite rightly stressed that Dagestan needs to reach the average indicators of Russia in socio-economic development.
It follows from all this that the main long-term strategic goal of the republic should be to overcome the lag and reach the average macroeconomic indicators of Russia in terms of economic and social development.
The main task of the strategy being developed is precisely to give a clear and precise answer to the question: how, in what time frame and by what means to solve this main strategic task, what resources are needed for this and where to get them.
First, it is necessary for all Dagestanis, especially the young generation, to master one truth - to bring the republic out of the socio-economic crisis and to ensure a decent standard of living only by their own labor, their own efforts and means. Of course, with the help of the Federal Center, which can only be obtained thanks to skillful organization and effective work, active participation in the implementation of federal state programs, plans and other projects.
Secondly, we must understand that the chronic lag of the last three decades is not the result of the incapacity of Dagestanis and is not associated with a lack of resources. The Republic has all the natural, labor and production resources for breakthrough development and overcoming the lag. It is necessary to radically modernize the organization of the economic complex and the system of state and municipal management.
The formation of modern competitive human capital is a top strategic priority
One of the central tasks of the new strategy, strategic planning in general, is the justification of priority areas, industries and spheres of socio-economic development. The choice and justification of strategic priorities should be carried out not by a rally vote, but on the basis of clearly oriented criteria through a deep systematic analysis of the impact of each priority direction on the achievement of the main strategic goal - overcoming the lag, reaching the average indicators of Russia in economic development and living standards of the population.
One of the main factors in the development of the modern knowledge economy is human capital. Modern developed human capital is a supporting structure and the most important system-forming factor of progress in all areas of life, breakthrough socio-economic development in particular. The state and development of human capital, hence the reproductive human potential of the republic, depend on the level and quality of life of the population. In the May decree of the President of the Russian Federation 2018, the national goals of breakthrough development are aimed at improving the standard of living of citizens, creating comfortable conditions for their living, as well as conditions and opportunities for self-realization and disclosure of each person’s talent. Therefore, the priority of the republic’s long-term strategy is to improve the level and quality of life of the population, the formation of modern competitive human capital.
Overcoming the lag of the entire social sphere, improving the level and quality of life of the population for Dagestan is an acute economic, social and socio-political task. The data on the republic’s lagging behind were given above for some indicators: the average salary, budget expenditures per capita, the number of own cars. The republic lags behind the average Russian indicators is taking place throughout the infrastructure of the social sphere, the state and level of development of which depend on the formation and efficiency of the use of human capital.
Okay, 28,4% the General Educational Institutions of Dagestan 2-3 Changes (in Russia – 12,8%, in the NCFD average – 24,3%), on 1000 Students of general education organizations in the republic are 104 personal computer, and in the country – 135 (in 1,3 more than once). Pre-school education in the country is 30,7% (in Russia – 66,5%, SKFO – 45,1%). According to this indicator, Dagestan among the regions of Russia takes the penultimate 84- I'm in. With the urgent need for specialists with higher and secondary special education, the number of students of secondary special educational institutions at 10000 Population in the Republic is less 1,3 than the average in Russia, and students of higher educational institutions 1,4 times less.
A significant lag is observed in healthcare, which plays a key role in improving the level and quality of life of the population, in the formation and maintenance of the capacity of the human capital of the republic. On 10000 We have fewer hospital beds than in Russia as a whole 22,6%, Doctors - on 23,4%, Medical Professionals - on 21,7%. Accordingly, based on the 10000 Dagestan among the regions of Russia occupies the number of hospital beds 79- the place, by number of doctors – 73- e.g., mid-level medical personnel – 80- e.
The incidence rate is 1000 people higher than the average Russian indicator by 2,3%, and the infant mortality rate is 1,7 times higher.
In improving the level and quality of life of the population, the formation and development of human capital, a purposeful and active work in the ideological, educational and cultural spheres should play an essential role. Now the activities of these areas do not meet modern requirements. For example, Dagestan among the regions of Russia for 1000 people in terms of the number of theater spectators occupies 74 place, the number of visits to museums - 81, the library fund - 82 and, paradoxically, the issue of newspapers - 81.
Special attention and urgent measures require the problem of training modern competitive personnel for industries and sectors of the economy of Dagestan. Without this, it is not only difficult to increase the investment attractiveness of the republic, to create new high-tech industries, but it is also impossible to develop existing enterprises.
For the formation of modern human capital, it seems necessary first of all to modernize the entire system of general and professional education. The May Decree of the President of the year 2018 provides for the introduction of new methods of teaching and education at the levels of basic general and secondary general education, educational technologies that ensure the development of basic skills and vocational guidance of all students. This means that the dominant in the system of general and secondary education should be the education of the younger generation of hard work, professional orientation and skills in the use of knowledge in socially useful activities.
The existing traditional system of addressless training in secondary and higher educational institutions needs to be modernized taking into account the modern requirements and needs of the economic complex of the republic. To ensure the personnel solution of strategic tasks of socio-economic development, it is necessary to determine the need for personnel (working and engineering specialists) in the main professions and qualification characteristics for all sectors of the economy and the social sphere at the moment and for the projected strategic perspective. Accordingly, on the basis of these needs, on a contractual (contractual) basis, to organize training for the national economy of the republic in higher and secondary specialized educational institutions, institutes and training courses, etc.
It clearly follows from the above that the modernization and development of the entire infrastructure of the social sphere, overcoming the lag in the level and quality of life of the population, the formation of modern competitive human capital are the absolute priority of the long-term strategy of socio-economic development of the Republic of Dagestan.
The key strategic priority is the transformation of Dagestan into a highly developed industrial and agrarian republic.
The fundamental task of the new strategy is to predict structural changes, determine the optimal sectoral and territorial structure of the republic's economy. All structural changes in the economy should first of all be focused on ensuring the achievement of the main strategic goal. Central and difficult in determining the long-term sectoral structure is the question of choosing between the industrial-agrarian and agrarian-industrial model of specialization of the economy of Dagestan. Methodological approaches to justifying and choosing strategic priorities for long-term socio-economic development depend on this.
Analysis and evaluation of the dynamic processes of globalization, modern sustainable trends of scientific and technological progress suggest that the sustainable development of the economy and the social sphere, overcoming the lag and the republic’s reaching the average Russian macroeconomic indicators are possible only with the breakthrough development of modern industry at the scientific, technical and technological level of the fifth and sixth technological modes. It should be borne in mind that post-industrial civilization grows out of industrial society, and industry is not only the material basis of economic and social development, but also the most important driving force of scientific and technological progress. Therefore, the long-term strategic model should be conceptually oriented towards the transformation of Dagestan into a highly developed industrial and agrarian republic.
The experience of recent decades shows that the restoration and especially the breakthrough development of the modern high-tech industry require cardinal and non-standard strategic decisions. After all, we have the historical experience of the Soviet five-year plans.
The need to restore the former industrial power and breakthrough development of the industrial complex of Dagestan is due to many objective factors. First, ensuring employment of the population of the republic, especially the growing urban population, is impossible in principle without large-scale industrial production. Population with 1991 the City of London 2016 G has increased in 63,9%, the City Hall 66,3%. At last 2016 The urban population has reached 1372 Thousands of people. According to Rosstat, 62,7% (or 860 Thousands of people) belong to the economically active population of the labor force. In all industrial activities, including those located in rural areas 89,6 thousands of people, or 10,4%, economically active urban population. It is clear that to provide employment for the rest of the able-bodied urban population (more 770 Other industries and areas of activity can neither now nor in the longer term. Only the development of industry, the creation of new high-paying jobs for the production of high-tech and high-tech products will solve this acute problem for Dagestan.
Secondly, the development and placement of industry in rural areas is one of the important factors in ensuring employment of the rural population, reducing migration, securing the population in areas and rural settlements. A balanced spatial distribution of productive forces, overcoming inequality and levelling the level of economic and social development of rural and urban areas can be ensured through the active development of industrial activities, the creation of modern high-paying jobs and comfortable living conditions for rural residents.
To do this, you can use the pre-perestroika experience of creating district industrial plants and district food processing plants, canneries and other modern high-tech enterprises for processing agricultural raw materials, placing in the areas of highly specialized production workshops of large enterprises, the development of enterprises of folk arts and other modern competitive industries.
Thirdly, the need to develop industry is dictated by the prospect of developing mineral deposits, expanding the scale of the mining and processing industry. Sustainable development of the fuel and energy complex is extremely important by increasing oil and gas production and processing, creating new capacities for electricity production, etc.
Fourth, it should be borne in mind that industry plays a leading role in the development of agriculture in the republic. It is the industry that creates, develops and supports the material and technical base of the agricultural sector, provides fuel and energy support for the entire process of agricultural production. Sustainable development of the food and agricultural raw material processing industries is crucial for the development of agriculture.
Fifthly, the crucial importance of industry for building up the tax base and creating its own revenue potential of budgets at all levels should be emphasized. Reducing and gradually overcoming the subsidy for Dagestan is the most acute economic, social, socio-political and moral problem. It can be solved only through a breakthrough and large-scale development of industry. Currently, 65% tax and non-tax revenues are provided by the basic industries of the republic. It is obvious that only a modern highly developed and efficient industry can become a real and reliable source of budget revenues at all levels and the financial self-sufficiency of the republic.
The arguments in favor of the industrial-agricultural model of the strategic development of Dagestan can still be continued. But even this makes it possible to assert that Dagestan is doomed to develop a modern high-tech industry. Given the dominant strategic role of industry in the economy and in general in the life of Dagestani society, the current state of the industrial complex should cause serious concern. Started in 1990The years and the deep crisis that continues to this day have led to the degradation of industry, and in fact to the de-industrialization of the republic. In just eight years (1991–1998 b) Industrial production decreased by 83,3%, the City Hall 15 Industries and sub-sectors from 20The fall was more 90%. Total industrial output in 2016 Mr. has totaled 81,4% C 1990 St Petersburg.
This means that the industry is already 26 The years are in place. During this time (in 2016 c. compared to 1990 Natural gas and oil production has declined 3,8 The production of canned food has decreased 10,8 The wine of the vine is in 3,2 fishing, fishing and processing of fish in 7 One. Electricity production per capita in the Republic 2016 Mr. has decreased 16% Compared to 1990 Mr. Per capita, less electricity is produced and consumed 5-5,3 In general, in Russia and 1,8 More than in the SCFA. This is the current state of the industrial complex of the republic.
At the same time, the statistics published about the allegedly high growth rates do not at all indicate the prosperity of industry and disorient the authorities and the public. At one of the meetings of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic, the Chairman of the Government of the RD Artem Zdunov quite rightly questioned the statistical indicators of socio-economic development and demanded to provide him with objective data on the state of the economy of the republic. Such an order is justified, and the clarification of statistical indicators is especially important for an objective assessment of the current state of the industrial complex.
The experience of recent decades shows that the restoration and especially the breakthrough development of the modern high-tech industry require cardinal and non-standard strategic decisions. There is a historical experience of the Soviet five-year plans, when, due to the effective use of its own potential and its resources, thanks to an active state regional policy and direct state participation, a breakthrough was made in socio-economic and cultural development, and Dagestan turned from a backward suburb of the Russian Empire into a highly developed industrial and agrarian republic.
During the years of the Soviet five-year plans were created equipped with the latest technology enterprises of engineering, oil, gas, chemical, glass, woodworking, textile, sewing, leather and footwear, canning, fishing, winemaking and meat and dairy industry. To the post-war 1950 There are more in Dagestan 100 large factories and factories, 70 Fishing Artels, 24 ray industry and ray food industry. The industry also developed at an increasing pace in the post-war period. Only for five years (1971–1985 b) have been built and put into operation 22 large industrial enterprises and 56 Production workshops. For the last 27 years (1991-2017 Only two notable industrial enterprises were built in the republic.
This historical experience shows that Dagestan has the necessary natural and labor resources for the breakthrough development of the republic’s industry. From this experience, the second conclusion follows that the breakthrough development of industry, as well as the entire economy of the republic, is possible only with real state assistance, with an active state regional policy aimed at overcoming inequality and advancing the development of backward regions.
Two strategic priorities for real solutions to the problems of breakthrough industrial development in Dagestan should be highlighted:
1) Recovery and restoration on a modern innovative basis destroyed in 90years of enterprises and sub-sectors, modernization of existing enterprises, full use of production capacities and potential of all branches of industry of the republic;
2) construction of new enterprises by attracting investment and implementing modern innovative investment projects.
First of all, it is necessary to conduct a substantive analysis, assess the state and revive all industrial enterprises that were operating before 1990. It is advisable to restore small and medium-sized industrial enterprises in rural areas that do not require large investments (raipromkombinats, rayeshchembints, branches and workshops of industrial enterprises), modernize and bring them to the modern level of technology and technology.
Secondly, it is necessary to assess the potential and prospects for the development of all existing industrial enterprises, in particular, the use of production facilities, competitiveness of products (services), staffing, financial situation and group them into:
- Sustainable and potentially promising;
potentially promising, but requiring modernization and technical reconstruction;
- hopeless, subject to complete reorganization or liquidation.
With this integrated assessment, it is necessary to define the concept, perspective and practical measures for the development and effective use of the potential of each enterprise.
Thirdly, it is advisable to carry out forecasting, justification and objective assessment of the volume of possible investments in the fixed capital of the republic’s industry from all federal sources. We must proceed from the fact that for such depressed regions of Russia as Dagestan, the federal policy of regional development and, above all, the federal investment policy should provide for active participation of the state in financing investments in priority projects on the terms of public-private partnership.
The strategy should include:
- public-private partnership in financing capital investments in the development of industry in the following forms;
- restoration and technical re-equipment of state unitary enterprises and municipal unitary enterprises by co-financing at the expense of public and private investments, followed by their transformation into open joint-stock companies and the corresponding distribution of shares among investors;
- technical re-equipment and reconstruction of private enterprises at the expense of public investments on the terms of equity participation (acquisition of a stake) of the state in the authorized capital;
reconstruction and technical re-equipment of open joint-stock companies with the participation of the state (share in capital, shareholding) by co-financing at the expense of the state and a private investor (investors) with the corresponding redistribution of the shareholding of the joint-stock company between investors;
construction of new enterprises (implementation of investment projects) through equity financing at the expense of the state and private investor (investors) with the corresponding consolidation of the share of investors in the authorized capital;
- construction of new enterprises at the expense of state investments in fixed assets, followed by their transformation into open joint-stock companies and the free distribution of shares among the population and legal entities.
The new strategy of socio-economic development should provide for the phased implementation of active and effective measures in the proposed areas, which will ensure the breakthrough development of industry, restore the former power of the industrial complex and solve this key strategic task for Dagestan.
Agriculture - a basic industry and a strategic priority of socio-economic development
The industrial-agricultural strategic model of the economy does not mean the priority development of industry to the detriment of other industries and sectors of the economy. On the contrary, such a model implies a harmonious and balanced development of the entire economic complex, and industry at the same time ensures the revival and integration of the potential of all industries, plays an active role of the “locomotive” of sustainable growth of the entire economy and improving the standard of living of the population.
Industry should play a special role in the breakthrough development of agriculture, strengthening its material and technical base, introducing modern innovative agricultural technologies, effective methods of storage, processing and transportation of agricultural products.
Agriculture is the second basic structural branch of the economy of the republic, the state and prospects of development of which, along with industry, determine the level and quality of life of the population, overcoming the lag and solving the main strategic goal of the Republic of Dagestan for the long term. In agriculture, the republic is created 15,5% Gross regional product, employed 255,2 Thousands of people (23,9% Total number of employees, operating 6,3% fixed assets.
In recent decades, the production of certain types of agricultural products in the republic has been growing at a high rate. So, in 2016 c. compared to 1990 The production of vegetables increased in 6,2 Once, potatoes in 5 Once, the milk in 2,4 Once, the meat in 1,8 Fruits and vegetables, in 1,2 once. population during this time (1991-2016 Growing up 63,9%, and the production of the main types of agricultural products lagged behind the rate of population growth. As a result, the production of agricultural products (except vegetables and potatoes) per capita has decreased sharply and in 2016 c. compared to 1990 G. made up by: grain – 45,8%, Grapes – 49, Eggs – 61,5, Wool – 62,5%, Milk – 70,8%, Fruits – 75,4%. At the same time, Dagestan lags behind the average indicators of Russia in per capita grain production 6,6 Once, eggs in 3,7 Once, potatoes in 1,6 Once, the meat in 1,5 of these products, respectively, in the 11 time, 1,8 times, 1,2 times, 1,5 times.
In accordance with the decree of the President of the Russian Federation 30 January 2010 № 120 To ensure food security, it is necessary to guarantee the physical and economic availability of food products for each citizen in amounts not less than rational consumption standards. This requirement of the Food Security Doctrine for Dagestan as a predominantly agrarian region is of absolute importance. Meanwhile, the needs of the population of the republic at the expense of their own production are not satisfied for any type of food, except vegetables and potatoes. As of 2016 The country meets its needs according to the established rational consumption standards for milk and dairy products 85,9%, bread and bread products - on 72,1%, Meat and meat products - on 60,7%, Fruits - on 43,4%, the Egg - on 30,6%, Fish and fish products - on 8,9%. In order to meet the needs of the population according to rational consumption standards, the republic annually needs to be imported 81,1 thousand tons of bread and bread products, 87 thousand tons of meat and meat products, 138,9 thousand tons of milk and dairy products, 171,5 thousand tons of fruits and berries, 66,2 Thousands of tons of fish and fish products, 546,5 Millions of eggs.
The state of organization and level of development of agriculture, its role in the economy of the republic characterizes the fact that in general the contribution of the agrarian sphere to tax and non-tax revenues of the consolidated budget is only one percent. This state of agriculture and food industry is a real threat not only to food security, but also to the overall economic security of the republic.
First of all, it is necessary to clearly understand that agriculture in Dagestan, where 73,5 % products are produced in households, has no prospects and cannot be accepted as a strategic direction for the organization and development of agricultural production. Overcoming the lag of agriculture and threats to food security requires a radical reorganization and consolidation of agricultural enterprises and organizations, KFH and LPH, breakthrough development and radical modernization of equipment, technology and organization of agricultural production. For radical modernization and long-term sustainable development of agriculture of the republic along the path of intensification, it is necessary to carry out active work on a scientific basis in the following priority strategic areas:
- development and strengthening of scientific and technical potential of the agrarian sphere, deployment of large-scale research on current problems of modernization and progressive development of agriculture;
- overcoming desertification and land degradation, restoring soil fertility, the most complete, effective and rational use of land, water and other natural, as well as production and labor resources;
- improvement of technology and technology, the consecutive transfer of agriculture of the republic from partial to complex mechanization, subsequently - to the stage of the "machine system", and from it to information and biological systems, the basis of which are two key technologies - global positioning systems and genetic engineering;
- increasing crop yields and livestock productivity, large-scale development of seed production, breeding, reclamation and chemicalization;
large-scale and intensive organization of training and advanced training of workers, specialists and managers of farms that meet the modern requirements of scientific and technological progress and market conditions of management;
- consolidation of personal subsidiary farms (labor resources, land plots, machinery, financial resources, etc.) into larger farms for joint organization of production, storage, processing, sale, etc. of agricultural products in various organizational and legal forms (CFS, production cooperatives, production and marketing cooperatives, etc.);
- social development of the village, improvement of the level and quality of life of the rural population, convergence of living conditions of urban and rural residents;
- in each district of Dagestan, to create at least one agro-town as an exemplary settlement (modern standard village), in which agricultural production is organized at the modern level of agricultural technology, all social infrastructure is created at the level of modern standards, all conditions for labor, recreation and development of the entire population, especially young people, such agro-towns will represent standards (models) of long-term development of both rural settlements and small towns, working settlements, industrial areas.
Strategic planning and implementation of measures in these areas will allow in the coming years to overcome the backlog of agriculture and ensure food security of the republic.
In accordance with the May Decree of the President of the Russian Federation 2018, a world-class scientific and educational center should be created in the RD based on the integration of the institutes of the DNC RAS, universities and their cooperation with leading enterprises and organizations of the real sector of the economy.
Overcoming the scientific and technological gap is a strategic priority and a key factor in breakthrough socio-economic development
One of the most acute challenges of our time and the basic condition for solving the main strategic task of breakthrough socio-economic development and overcoming the lag of the Republic of Dagestan is the acceleration of scientific and technological development, modernization and transfer of all sectors and spheres of the economy to an innovative development model with the prospect of reaching the level of the fifth and sixth technological modes. In a modern economy, the most important factor for development and competitiveness is not physical capital and material assets, but knowledge, scientific achievements, their materialization into new technologies, products and services. Taking into account the active integration of Russia into the world economic space and the expected cardinal measures to transfer the country's economy to an innovative development model, Dagestan needs to ensure a genuine scientific and technical revolution in the economy and in all spheres of society.
the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation 1 December 2016 № 642 The Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of Russia was approved. It defines the goals, principles, tasks, priorities, as well as the main directions and measures for the implementation of the state policy of scientific and technological development of the country for the coming years 10–15 years. the Government of the Russian Federation 24 June 2017 №1325the Plan of Measures for the Implementation of the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation 2017–2019 years (first stage). The Strategy and the Action Plan provide for active participation in their implementation by authorities at all levels, the scientific, educational and business community, and civil society institutions. The federal strategy is the basis for the development of strategies and state programs of scientific and technological development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. In addition, in the May decree of the President of the Russian Federation 2018 Breakthrough scientific and technological development is defined as one of the national goals of the Russian Federation, as a key strategic task for the period up to 2024 years. It follows from all this that scientific and technological development should be a priority of Dagestan’s new strategy.
We are carrying out some work on scientific and technological development in the framework of the implementation of state programs of the Republic of Dagestan and state programs of the Russian Federation. In particular, according to the state program of RD "Development of industry and increasing its competitiveness in the 2015–2020 years" is carried out modernization of industry, industrial parks are created, according to the state program of RD "Economic Development and Innovative Economy" business incubators, technoparks, industrial (industrial) and agro-industrial parks are developing. the Government of RD 13 December 2013 № 655 the State Program of the Republic of Dagestan "Development of Scientific, Technical and Innovative Potential of the Republic of Dagestan 2014-2018 years”, the goals of which have not been achieved at all, and the planned indicators and indicators have not been achieved in any innovation sphere.
Within the framework of federal state programs and corporate investment programs, measures are being taken to technological modernization of Dagdiesel Plant, Kizlyar Electromechanical Plant Concern, Plant. Gadzhieva", JSC "Dagfos", JSC "Aviaagregat", LLC "DagestanStekloTara" and other enterprises. In order to facilitate research and development, the creation and implementation of innovative developments, the RD Government established an autonomous non-profit organization "Scientific and Innovation Center".
Large-scale work on the development of fundamental and applied science, the solution of current scientific and applied technical and technological problems, the implementation of modern innovative projects is carried out at the institutes of the DNC RAS, higher educational institutions, industry research institutes and laboratories of the Republic of Dagestan.
Innovation processes in Dagestan have been gaining momentum in recent years, but the scale of creation, development in production and promotion of innovative goods, technologies and organizational innovations on the market is completely insufficient to transition to an innovative model of development and ensure the competitiveness of the economy. Enterprises do not have enough developed investment projects aimed at using innovations and developing modern competitive products. The main reason for the low innovative activity of scientific organizations and enterprises engaged in scientific research and development is the limited investment resources due to the difficult financial situation of most of them.
The development of innovation activity is also hampered by the lack of a single managed republican innovation system capable of managing innovative transformations, consolidating all the efforts and resources available to the republic to ensure sustainable economic growth, modernization and competitiveness of the economy.
The innovative infrastructure in the republic is not sufficiently developed, which could ensure the inflow of innovative technologies and developments into production. Developments of scientific organizations of DNC RAS, universities, industry research institutes and inventors remain unclaimed or difficult to implement at specific enterprises of the republic. There is no effective state regulation in this area, and innovatively active enterprises do not receive tangible support.
Research and development in the Republic as at 2016 Mr. Busy 45 Organizations and 1997 The staff, which is 26,1% Number of similar personnel in the NCFD and total 0,3% for the Russian Federation. The total number of researchers in the republic is 1419 People, of whom have scientific degrees of doctor of sciences 232 and Candidate of Sciences 788 person.
In recent years, Dagestan has seen a tendency to weaken the innovation activity of organizations. The share of organizations that implement technological innovations in the 2000 G. was 6,4% and to 2016 G is down to 2,5%, or in 2,6 once. According to this indicator, as of 2016 The country lags far behind Russia as a whole (8,4%) and NCFD (2,9%).
A similar picture is observed in the dynamics of the volume of innovative goods. Their specific weight in the total volume of shipped goods (works, services) in the republic amounted to 2000 St Petersburg. 2,8% (Russian Federation – 4,4%, SKFO – 0,6%), the University of Chicago 2016 St Petersburg. – 0,4% (Russian Federation – 8,5%, SKFO – 6,4%). The significant lag in the development of technology and technology in the RD is evidenced by the fact that the share of the republic in the total number of advanced production technologies created in Russia 2016 Mr. has made 0,4%, and used everything 0,3%.
Of particular concern is the steady trend of declining domestic R&D expenditures as a share of total gross regional product. This share of RD decreased from 0,36% in 2000 M. to 0,17% in 2016 Mr. It should be noted that domestic research and development costs as a percentage of total GRP in RD are lower than in the previous year 8,3 than in Russia, and 1,5 More than ever in the NFL as a whole.
Given such a large-scale lag in all indicators of the technical and technological level, the dominant feature of the new strategy of the republic should be the breakthrough scientific and technological development of all sectors of the economy. First of all, it is necessary to ensure the implementation of the measures provided for by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”. To do this, it is necessary to develop a special state program of scientific and technological development of the republic and a plan for its phased implementation. This program should also reflect measures to ensure the implementation of the May (2018) decree of the President of the Russian Federation, in which among the national goals up to 2024, the breakthrough scientific and technological development is given a central place.
The most important goals and key strategic priorities of Dagestan, arising from these presidential decrees, are: 1) bringing the number of organizations implementing technological innovations to 50% of their total number; 2) a phased increase in research and development costs and bringing the total volume of investments in this area from all sources to 2% GRP.
The Decree of the President of the Russian Federation "On the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation" provides for the formation of an effective modern management system in the field of science, technology and innovation. The first strategic task is to create a clearly oriented to structural modernization of the economy of the republican innovation system, uniting and coordinating the innovative activities of all academic and branch scientific departments, universities, research, design and technological links of enterprises, organizations, business associations. To determine the innovation policy and successful management of this republican innovation system, there is a need to form a state innovation management body in the status of the republican Ministry (Agency, Committee) of Science and Higher Education. The main functions and priorities of such a body, in our opinion, should be:
- definition of long-term strategy and republican policy of innovative development and structural modernization of the economy and other spheres of life of Dagestan society;
coordination of innovative activities of academic institutions, branch research institutes, universities, design and development organizations, enterprises and economic associations operating in Dagestan;
- implementation of a complete inventory and accounting of existing innovations in the republic (discoveries, inventions, new high technologies, new competitive goods and services, high-tech developments, etc.), drawing up their register, selecting from them relevant for commercialization in the economy of the republic, identifying industries and areas of activity where they can be used, as well as bodies and officials responsible for introducing each innovation into production;
- identification of current and forecast long-term problems and bottlenecks in each sector of the economy and social sphere, for the solution of which it is necessary to conduct scientific research and research; organization of solving these problems and cracking bottlenecks with the involvement of academic and industry institutions, universities, inventors, small venture capital organizations, specialists of enterprises, organizations, ministries and departments on a competitive and contractual (contractual) basis.
It is advisable to re-subordinate the autonomous non-profit organization "Scientific and Innovation Center" to this ministry, determine the scope of activities and widely expand its work on the creation and implementation of innovative developments, assistance in research and development.
At the same time, in accordance with the May Decree of the President of the Russian Federation 2018, a world-class scientific and educational center should be created in the RD on the basis of the integration of the institutes of the DNC RAS, universities and their cooperation with leading enterprises and organizations of the real economy.
Further strengthening of innovation potential, development of innovation activity, use of modern achievements of science and high technologies will allow to carry out structural diversification, transfer the economy of the Republic of Dagestan to an innovative model of development and in the long-term strategic perspective to ensure its competitiveness in regional, domestic and world markets. This should be facilitated by a republican innovation system, the creation of which is an objective necessity. The solution of these tasks is one of the main goals and priorities of the new strategy of the Republic of Dagestan.