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Russia’s Balances, 1896–2026

A historical review of Russia’s balances in relation to the role of academic science and systems planning.

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A historical review of Russia’s balances in relation to the role of academic science and systems planning.

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Russian Empire • USSR • Russian Federation

The influence of the Academy of Sciences on the demographic, resource, energy, industrial and scientific-technological balance

Prepared for Sokolov Sergey Leonidovich

Version 1.0 • 27 August 2026

Table of contents

SectionPage
Summary for decision3
Methodology: how to read 130-year-old series4
Map of 11 epochs5
The Russian Empire, War and NEP: The Epochs of 1–36–10
USSR: Industrialization, War, Reconstruction, Maturity and Restructuring — Ages 4–811–19
Russian Federation: epochs 9–1120–25
Five through balances26–30
Influence and limits of the Academy of Sciences31–32
Academic Register and Road Map33–34
Annexes and sources35–39

All figures are provided with the indication of the territory and source; roundings are indicated by the sign ≈.

Summary for decision

Shift1897 / 1913The Soviet maximumRF: the last pointWhat it means
Urbanization13,4% the Empire; ≈15% the Russian Federation73% in RSFSR, 1989about 75%, 2025The country has become urban; the deficit has shifted from basic infrastructure to environmental quality and human resources.
Electricity≈1,94 billion KW·h, 19131 705 billion KW·h, USSR, 1988·h 1 183,9 billion, Russia, 2025The energy circuit has grown by three orders of magnitude; the boundaries of USSR and the Russian Federation are different.
Scientific staffThere was no mass≈1,49 Millions of scientists, 1985≈676 Thousands of R&D personnel, 2024The main risk is the reproduction of researchers and engineering equipment.
Demography125,64 million by empire, 1897147,0 million in the RSFSR, 1989146,03 million in the Russian Federation, 2025The size of the population is stable over a long stretch of the territory of the Russian Federation, but the age structure and natural decline worsen the balance.

Five conclusions

• Physical scale is a necessary but insufficient condition for sustainability. USSR has created huge capacities, but by 1980 the return on additional resources was decreasing.

• The most successful technological breakthroughs occurred where fundamental science, government order, project management and serial production acted as a single circuit.

• The Academy has had the strongest influence on the measurement of territory and resources, the preparation of scientific schools, the formulation of complex tasks and expertise. It could not fix monetary, price, or political imbalances on its own.

• The most severe failures were the simultaneous rupture of several circuits: 1914–1921, 1941–1945, 1988–1998. The local deficit became systemic when the synchronization of transport, money, property, and data stopped.

• For horizon 2026–2035, it is not a single index of well-being that is needed, but a register of stocks, flows, standards and stress scenarios with explicit responsibility for data and decisions.

Methodology: how to read 130-year-old series

Unit of analysis

The national balance sheet is the reconciliation of stock, flow, reproduction and risk. Eight contours are considered for each era: population, food, energy, resources, industry and capital, infrastructure, finance and external account, knowledge and technology.

StatusHow it is used
FACTNumber or event from official/primary source.
HISTORICAL INTERPRETATIONExplain the relationship of indicators; allows for alternative interpretations.
EXPERT SYNTHESISComparison of epochs within a single framework; estimates of tension are not government statistics.
PROJECT OFFERProposed monitoring architecture; not a description of the current state system.

Major Comparability Gaps

• The territory: the census of 1897 did not include Finland; the Soviet ranks of 1913 are often recalculated within the future boundaries of USSR.

• Population: early censuses used the available population, later - permanent; the definition of the city changed.

• Prices: gold, Soviet and modern ruble are not comparable without special reconstructions. Preference is given to physical quantities.

• Science: "scientists" USSR and "R&D personnel" of the Russian Federation are close, but not identical in scope.

• Causality: The participation of the Academy is separated from the decision of the state and from the actual industrial effect.

Estimated accents

Electricity USSR has grown from 1,94 billion KW·H in 1913 the Year 1 705 billion KW·H in 1988 year, approximately in 879 One. This factor shows the scale of energy consumption, but does not measure well-being and is not transferred to the Russian Federation after 1991 years.

Map of 11 epochs

PeriodEpochDominant logic of balance
1896–1913Imperial ModernizationRapid growth of the upper industrial and financial contours in a predominantly rural and illiterate society.
1914–1921War, Revolution and the Breakup of Economic RelationsMobilization destroyed the gold money regime, and then a single circuit of supply, transport and property.
1922–1928NEP and RecoveryThe return of limited market incentives restored the exchange between the countryside and the city; energy became the first nationwide balance.
1929–1940Forced industrializationThe state concentrated investments in heavy industry and energy, taking a high social and agricultural price.
1941–1945Military-mobilization balanceThe main criterion was not the maximization of output, but the preservation of critical functions with the loss of territory, people and capacities.
1946–1964Recovery and technological breakthroughThe reconstruction of the industry coincided with the creation of nuclear, rocket and space and mass educational contours.
1965–1985Mature USSR: scale and decreasing efficiencyThe material and scientific scale reached a maximum, but the return on additional resources decreased, and the consumer and innovative contours lagged behind.
1986–1991Restructuring and disintegration of a single contourAttempting to change incentives without a sustainable price, property, and inter-republic settlement architecture has turned hidden imbalances into open ones.
1992–1999Transition shock of the Russian FederationMarket institutions were created simultaneously with the collapse of demand, cooperation, budget and scientific and production ties.
2000–2013Stabilization and resource and financial strengtheningHigh export earnings, tax centralization and capacity utilization have restored macroeconomic and social balances.
2014–2026Adaptation and structural turnThe economy remains resilient to external shocks but faces demographic contraction, staffing constraints and the challenge of technological autonomy.

Periodization principle: the boundary of the epoch is put where the mechanism of resource coordination changes - monetary regime, property, planning, mobilization, external contour or the architecture of science.

1. 1896–1913 Imperial modernization

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Population125,64 millionRussian Empire without Finland, census 1897[S01]
Urban population13,4%Russian Empire, 1897[S04]
Literacy21,1%; male 29,3%, female 13,1%Russian Empire, 1897[S04]
Life expectancy≈30,5 yearsRussian territory, 1896–1897; historical assessment[S04]
Grain≈50,5 million tons; about 560 kg per personRussia, 1913; rounded[S04]
Electricity≈1,94 billion KW·hUSSR in future borders, 1913[S08]
Coal29,2 mln tUSSR in future borders, 1913[S07]

1. 1896–1913 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Oil≈10,3 million tonsUSSR in future borders, 1913[S07]
Steel≈4,2 million tonsUSSR in future borders, 1913[S07]
Railways≈70,2 thousand kmRussian Empire, 1913/14[S36]
Balance of the State Bank3,041 billion rub.; gold 1,695 billion rub.by 1 January 1914[S06]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The Academy created maps, classifications, scientific schools and resource exploration. V 1910 The Radiation Commission was established in the 1915 KEPS: prototype of a bundle "resource register - scientific expertise - state order".

The National Balance

2. 1914–1921 War, revolution and disintegration of economic relations

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Population91,0 millionterritory of modern Russia, rating 1917[S03]
Urban share17%territory of modern Russia, 1917[S03]
The Gold ExchangeTerminatedfrom July 1914[S05]
Large industry≈14% from the level 1913RSFSR/USSR, 1920; historical evaluation[S09]
Electricitynear 0,5 billion KW·hterritory of the RSFSR/USSR, 1920; rounded[S08]
Grain≈50,5 → 34,0 million tonsthe Russian Territory: 1913 → 1922; −33%[S04]
Income per soul<50% Levels 19131919; historical reconstruction[S09]
The railway systempeak overload and rupturesquality total, 1916–1921[S36]
KEPScreated in 1915Academy of Sciences[S11]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

KEPS searched for strategic raw materials and coordinated specialists, but did not manage the budget, transport or distribution. Its most important effect was postponed: institutional groundwork passed into the Soviet period.

The National Balance

3. 1922–1928 NEP and Recovery

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Population92,7 millionterritory of modern Russia, census 1926[S03]
Urban share18%territory of modern Russia, 1926[S03]
Life expectancy≈42,9 yearsterritory of Russia, 1926–1927[S04]
Grain34,0 → 50,0 million tonsthe Russian Territory: 1922 → 1928; +47%[S04]
Electricity5,0 billion KW·hUSSR, 1928; 2,6 times to 1913[S08]
Coal35,5 mln tUSSR, 1928[S09]
Oil11,6 mln tUSSR, 1928[S09]

3. 1922–1928 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Steel4,3 mln tUSSR, 1928[S09]
GOELRO1,75 million kW according to plan; 2,56 million kW commissionedNew Power Plants[S10]
Universities248; 216,7 Thousands of studentsUSSR, 1922/23 academic year[S15]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The KEPS and its resulting Council for the Study of Productive Forces linked geology, industrial location, and electrification. The KEPS/SOPS subsequently established 16 institutes.

The National Balance

4. 1929–1940 Forced Industrialization

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Electricity5,0 → 13,5 → 36,2 → 48,3 billion KW·hUSSR: 1928 / 1932 / 1937 / 1940[S08]
Coal35,5 → 64,4 → 128 → 166 million tonsUSSR: 1928 / 1932 / 1937 / 1940[S09]
Oil11,6 → 21,4 → 28,5 → 31,1 million tonsUSSR: 1928 / 1932 / 1937 / 1940[S09]
Steel4,3 → 5,9 → 17,7 → 18,3 million tonsUSSR: 1928 / 1932 / 1937 / 1940[S09]
Grain47,5 → 70,4 → 55,6 million tonsterritory of Russia: 1932 / 1937 / 1940[S04]
Population108,4 millionterritory of modern Russia, census 1939[S03]
Urban share33%territory of modern Russia, 1939[S03]
University students811,7 thousand.USSR, 1940/41 academic year[S15]
Institutional shiftThe Academy moved to Moscow; branch offices1934–1935[S20]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

Academic expeditions and institutions have reduced uncertainty on raw materials, energy, metallurgy, and placement. The scientific network became part of the planned circuit, but decisions about the pace and price of industrialization were made politically.

The National Balance

5. 1941–1945 Military mobilization balance

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Total demographic losses≈26,6 million peopleUSSR, official estimate[S14]
Population of RSFSR≈111,0 → 97,6 million1941 → Home 1946; evaluation[S14]
Grain55,6 → 25,4 million tonsthe Russian Territory: 1940 → 1945; −54%[S04]
GDP≈66% / 83% Levels 1940USSR: 1942 / 1945; reconstruction[S09]
Release of weapons≈251% Levels 1940USSR, 1944; index[S09]
Electricity48,3 → 43,3 billion KW·hUSSR: 1940 → 1945[S08]
Oil31,1 → 19,4 million tonsUSSR: 1940 → 1945[S09]

5. 1941–1945 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Steel18,3 → 12,3 million tonsUSSR: 1940 → 1945[S09]
FTI: The Primary Flow of Ideas847 Proposals for the first 2 MonthsCommission led by N. N. Semenova, 1941[S13]
Impulse radar "Redout"detection range up to 150 kmthe School of Physics and Technology[S13]
FTI in Kazan8 from 18 laboratories; about 70 employeesEvacuation 1941[S13]
FTI Dissertations38: 10 PhD and 28 PhD1941–1945[S13]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The Academy provided a fast cycle of "task front - laboratory solution - implementation": demagnetization of ships, radar, ice track safety, medicine, nuclear reserve. These are testable cases, not grounds for attributing the entire military result to science.

The National Balance

Verified case: FTI during the war

Summer 1941 the FTI 's 18 Laboratories and more 300 staff. Commission led by N. N. Semenova 847 proposals in the first two months. In Kazan evacuated 8 laboratories and about 70 employees; in the Leningrad group remained 103 Human. The results included demagnetization of ships, pulse radar and devices for safe driving on the ice trackS13].

6. 1946–1964 Recovery and technological breakthrough

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Electricity43,3 → 91,2 → near 292 billion KW·hUSSR: 1945 / 1950 / 1960[S08]
Oil19,4 → 37,9 → 147,9 million tonsUSSR: 1945 / 1950 / 1960[S09]
Steel12,3 → 27,3 → near 65 million tonsUSSR: 1945 / 1950 / 1960[S09]
Electricity of RSFSR63,4 → 304,6 billion KW·h1950 → 1964; ×4,8[S15]
Grain46,8 → 83,2 million tonsterritory of Russia: 1950 → 1964[S04]
Population117,2 millionterritory of modern Russia, census 1959[S03]
Urban share52%territory of modern Russia, 1959[S03]

6. 1946–1964 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Life expectancy≈67,9 → 69,6 yearsRussia: 1958/59 → 1964/65[S04]
Reactor F-1Start 25 December 1946The first uranium-graphite reactor in Eurasia[S18]
Sputnik / Gagarin1957 / 1961USSR[S19]
Siberian Branch of AN USSRcreated in 1957New territorial model of science[S17]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The academic environment was at the core of cross-industry projects: physics, mathematics, chemistry, materials science and geology combined with closed KB and industry. The creation of SO AN USSR brought the research closer to the resource base of Siberia.

The National Balance

7. 1965–1985 Mature USSR: scale and decreasing efficiency

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Electricity507 → 1 039 → 1 544 billion KW·hUSSR: 1965 / 1975 / 1985[S15]
Oil243 → near 491 → near 595 million tonsUSSR: 1965 / 1975 / 1985[S15]
Coal578 → near 701 → near 726 million tonsUSSR: 1965 / 1975 / 1985[S15]
Steel91 → near 141 → near 155 million tonsUSSR: 1965 / 1975 / 1985[S15]
Electricity of RSFSR332,8 → 962 billion KW·h1965 → 1985; ×2,9[S15]
Life expectancy≈69,5 → 68,1 yearsRSFSR: 1965 → 1985[S04]
Import of grain45,5 mln tUSSR, 1984[S15]

7. 1965–1985 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Fuel and raw materials in export≈16% → 54%USSR: 1960 → 1985[S15]
Population of RSFSR129,9 → 137,4 → 147,0 millionCensus 1970 / 1979 / 1989[S03]
Urban share of RSFSR62% → 69% → 73%1970 / 1979 / 1989[S03]
Science workers664,6 thousands. → 1 223,4 thousands. → near 1 491 thousands.USSR: 1965 / 1975 / 1985[S16]
University students4,58 millionUSSR, 1970[S15]
Average annual growth of national income7,5% → 5,8% → 3,8%8th / 9th / 10th Five-Year Plans[S15]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The Academy provided a fundamental base of defense, space, energy and geological programs. The weak link was the transition from the result of the institute to mass civil technology and productivity.

The National Balance

8. 1986–1991 Alteration and decay of a single contour

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Electricity1 544 → 1 705 billion KW·hUSSR: 1985 → 1988; then stagnation[S15]
Oilnear 595 → 624 million tonsUSSR: 1985 → 1988; then decline[S15]
Science workersabout 1,49 millionUSSR, 1985; system peak[S16]
Population savingsnear 230 billion rub.deposits in savings banks, 1985; nominal value[S15]
Population of RSFSR147,0 millionCensus 1989[S03]
Urban share of RSFSR73%Census 1989[S03]
Life expectancy≈70,1 yearsRSFSR, 1986–1987[S04]

8. 1986–1991 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Electricity of RSFSR≈1 082 billion KW·h1990[S15]
Grain≈116,7 million tonsRSFSR, 1990[S04]
RASrestored by decree 21 November 1991institutional continuity[S21]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The scientific complex remained large, but depended on the federal budget, customers and chains of cooperation. The Academy could diagnose problems, but not replace the mechanism of prices, budget and political coordination.

The National Balance

9. 1992–1999 Transition shock of the Russian Federation

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
CPI≈2 508,8%Russia, 1992 to 1991[S24]
Real GDPdecrease of approximately 40%Russia, 1991–1998; order of magnitude[S23]
Populationnear 147 million → 146,3 millionRussia, beginning and end of the decade[S03]
Life expectancy64,0 → 65,9 yearsRussia: 1994 → 1999[S25]
Grain116,7 → 47,8 million tonsRussia: 1990 → 1998; −59%[S04]
Researchers992,6 → 425,9 thousands.Russia: 1990 → 2000; −57%; separate category[S30]
R&D staff1 061 thousandRussia, 1995[S30]

9. 1992–1999 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Oil productionabout 305 million tonsRussia, minimum end 1990-x[S32]
Electricitynear 846 billion KW·hRussia, 1998; rounded[S32]
International reservesabout 12,5 billion dollarsRussia, end 1999; order of magnitude[S33]
RASlegal status restored to 1991Russia[S21]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The Academy has maintained schools and continuity with a sharp reduction in funding and staff outflows. Its contribution of the period is the preservation of a critical mass of competencies, and not compensation for the macroeconomic recession.

The National Balance

10. 2000–2013 Stabilization and resource and financial strengthening

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Average GDP growth≈6,9% per yearRussia, 1999–2008[S23]
Oil production≈305 → 523 million tonsRussia, 1999 → 2013[S32]
Electricity≈878 → 1 059 billion KW·hRussia, 2000 → 2013; +21%[S32]
Grain65,4 → 92,4 million tonsRussia: 2000 → 2013; +41%[S04]
Life expectancy≈65,3 → 70,8 yearsRussia, 2000 → 2013[S25]
Total fertility rate1,20 → 1,71Russia: 2000 → 2013[S25]
Poverty29,0% → near 10,8%Russia, 2000 → 2013[S27]

10. 2000–2013 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
International reserves≈12,5 → 510 billion dollarsEnd 1999 → End 2013; Rounded[S33]
Public debt55,9% → 12,7% GDPRussia: 2000 → 2013[S33]
R&D staff≈888 → 727 thousands.Russia, 2000 → 2013[S30]
Urban share73% → 74%Census 2002 → 2010[S03]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

The RAS maintained a fundamental school and expert function, but the gap between research, universities, public corporations, and private business remained significant.

The National Balance

11. 2014–2026 Adaptation and structural rotation

Numerical passport of the era

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Average GDP growth≈0,9% per yearRussia, 2014–2019[S23]
GDP growth by year−1,4%; +4,1%; near +4–5%; +1,0%2022 / 2023 / 2024 / 2025; the 2024 figure was revised[S23]
GDP growth≈1,0%Russia, 2025; first estimate[S23]
Population146,03 millionRussia, at 1 January 2025[S25]
Birth / Death1,222 / 1,819 millionRussia, 2024[S26]
Total fertility rate≈1,4Russia, 2024[S26]
Life expectancy73,34 → 70,06 → 73,41 yearsRussia: 2019 / 2021 / 2023[S25]

11. 2014–2026 Numerical passport — continuation

IndicatorNumberCoverage and dateSource
Grain92,4 → 125,9 million tonsRussia: 2013 → 2024[S04]
Poverty6,7%Russia, 2025; new technique after 2021[S28]
R&D staffabout 676 thousand.Russia, 2024[S29]
Domestic R & D costs0,97% GDPRussia, 2024[S31]
Electricity1 183,9 billion KW·hRussia, 2025[S32]
Oil / Gas / Coal511,5 million tons / 663,3 billion m³ / 440 million tonsRussia, 2025[S32]
Examination of the RAS>80 Thousands of conclusions; 661 Organizationlast reporting year[S35]

Role of the Academy of Sciences

After the reform of 2013, the RAS does not manage most of the institutes as before, but remains a center of expertise, coordination and scientific representation. The scale of the examination is more than 80 thousand conclusions for more than 1 000 organizations, including 661 institute and university.

The National Balance

End-to-end balance 1. Population and urbanization

Sources: Rosstat [S03], [S25]. The series refers to the territory of modern Russia; the early points have been reconstructed. The proportion of 2025 is rounded.

A long trend is the transition from rural to urban society. After the 1990s, the population hovers around 143–147 million, but the birthrate of 1,222 million versus 1,819 million deaths in 2024 shows a reproduction deficit. Therefore, the stability of the total population is not equal to the demographic balance.

End-to-end balance 2. Energy as a system framework

Sources: historical series [S08], [S15]; modern results [S32]. Rows USSR and the Russian Federation are divided due to the territorial gap.

GOELRO was not just a plan for power plants: it linked the location of productive forces, fuel, networks and industrial hubs. K 2025 the Russian Federation 1 183,9 billion KW·h at the installed capacity 270,3 GWh. Modern risk has shifted from absolute power shortage to reliability of networks, equipment and availability of power for new industries.

End-to-end balance 3. Physical scale of the industry

Sources: [S07]–[S09], [S15] Index 1913 = 100; logarithmic scale; Soviet recalculations 1913 Years in the Future Frontiers USSR.

K 1985 Electricity production was approximately 796 times higher 1913 Oil, about a year 58 once, became — in 37 Once, coal in 25 One. The pace difference shows the change of the technological core: from the coal-metallurgical base to the oil and gas and electric power system.

End-to-end balance 4. Scientific staff

Sources: [S16], [S29], [S30]. The indicators differ in methodology, so the panels are not connected.

V USSR The number of scientists has more than doubled 1965 and 1985 years. R&D staff in Russia has declined 1,061 Millions in 1995 Year to approximately 676 thousands in 2024 the Year - in 36%. At the cost 0,97% GDP in 2024 Quantitative reproduction of the research circuit remains a limitation.

End-to-end balance 5. Where the tension builds up

Expert synthesis of the author based on numerical passports. This is not an official statistical index.

Critical epochs coincide with the loss of coordination of several systems at once. In the years 1914–1921 and 1992–1999, the financial and institutional gap increased production. In 1941–1945, the external threat was maximum, but centralized mobilization retained the controllability of critical flows.

How the Academy of Sciences Affected National Balance Sheets

ChannelMechanismBalanced effectExample
Measurementcensuses, maps, classifications, standardsReducing errors in resource and spatial planningKEPS, expeditions
Resource baseGeology, mineralogy, soil scienceOpening and evaluation of stocksKola Peninsula, CMA, Siberia
Energyphysics, energy, materialstechnology selection and placementGOELRO, nuclear power
Defencemathematics, physics, chemistry, medicineReducing the cycle from task to implementationdemagnetization, radar, nuclear project
Human capitalScientific Schools and Postgraduate StudiesReproduction of researchersFTI, SO AN USSR
Territorial developmentIntegrated programsLinking science with the resource regionSiberian Branch
ExpertiseProgramme and outcome evaluationquality of solutions and project filtering>80 thousand conclusions in the last report
Cultural Capitallanguages, history, archives, collectionsPreservation of identity and memoryPushkin House, archives

Eight institutional milestones

YearVekahModification of the mechanism
1915KEPSTransition from discipline to economic problem
1925AN USSRinclusion of the Academy in the Union planning system
1934–1935Moscow and branch officesConvergence with central management and industrial tasks
1941–1945Military mobilization of scienceshort cycle of implementation
1943–1946Laboratory No. 2 and F-1the Nuclear Technology Outline
1957SB AN USSRterritorial decentralization of the scientific network
1991Rebuilding the RASlegal continuity after dissolution USSR
2013–2026Reform and Expert ModelTransition from direct management of institutions to coordination and expertise

Limits of Academic Influence

• Academy does not set prices, taxes and interest rates; therefore, it is not able to restore the cash balance on its own.

• Scientific discovery is not equal to implementation: we need a customer, pilot production, standards, capital and responsibility for the serial result.

• The Academy is not the whole science of the country. Universities, industry institutes, design bureaus, factory laboratories and departmental services have independent contributions.

• A strong dependence on the budget and personnel policy makes the Academy both a pillar of the state and a vulnerable part of the long investment cycle.

• Quantitative metrics of publications and conclusions do not replace estimates of the real technological effect.

Project proposal: Academic Register of National Balance Sheets

LayerWhat is storedQuality controlUser
Reservespopulation, capacity, reserves of raw materials, fixed assets, scientific equipmentsingle date and territory of assessmentGovernment, regions, corporations
Streamsenergy, water, food, investment, personnel, import of technologiesmaterial and monetary unitsIndustry Headquarters
Normsminimum security, reserve, recovery periodscientific expertise and open methodologyRegulators
Scriptssanctions, climate, accidents, demography, technological gapStress test and sensitivitySecurity Council, Government
Decisionsresponsible, time, budget, expected effectsubsequent verification of resultProject Offices

Minimum set of indicators

• Demographics: population by age, healthy life expectancy, migration, availability of key professions.

• Energy and resources: available capacity, network constraints, inventory by category, time of development and import dependence of equipment.

• Food and water: release, shifting stocks, logistics, regional deficits, climate sensitivity.

• Science and technology: age researchers, equipment, critical competencies, time from result to series.

• Finance: investment, long credit, external account, budget sensitivity to raw material prices.

Road map 2026–2035

HorizonActionMeasurable result
0–90 daysApprove 40–60 key balances and data passports; choose three pilots.A single catalog of indicators, owners and quality gaps.
3–12 monthsPilots: scientific personnel and equipment; electricity for new industrial units; food and water balance.Three stress tests and a list of solutions with a budget and responsible.
1–3 yearsIntegrate regional and industry showcases; introduce independent academic verification.Regular report on stocks, flows and risks.
3–10 yearsLink the register with the investment cycle, state programs and technological projects.Reduction of reaction time and share of projects without providing a resource.

The First Three Pilots

Annex 1. Population control points

YearTotal, millionCity, millionUrban shareNote
189767,59,9≈15%territory of the modern Russian Federation; available population
191489,915,717%Assessment within current boundaries
191791,015,517%Assessment within current boundaries
192692,716,418%census; available population
1939108,436,333%census; available population
1959117,261,152%Census; permanent population
1970129,980,662%Census
1979137,494,969%Census
1989147,0107,973%Census
2002145,2106,473%Census
2010142,9105,374%Census
2025146,03—about 75%Ongoing assessment; Crimea and Sevastopol are taken into account according to the Rosstat method

Source: [S03], [S25]. Values are rounded; by 1959, the type of population accounting is changing.

Annex 2. Electricity and base industry USSR

YearElectricity, billion KW·hCoal, million tonsOil, million tonsSteel, million tons
19131,9429,210,34,2
19285,035,511,64,3
193213,564,421,45,9
193736,212828,517,7
194048,316631,118,3
194543,3≈14919,412,3
195091,2≈26137,927,3
196550757824391
19751 039≈701≈491≈141
19851 544≈726≈595≈155
19881 705≈772624≈163

Sources: [S07]–[S09], [S15] Sign ≈ means the rounding or rounding of close official rows. Point 1913 Usually counted in future borders USSR.

Annex 3. Scientific personnel and institutional points

YearIndicatorValueCoverage
1965Science Workers664,6 thousand.USSR
1970Science Workers927,7 thousand.USSR
1975Science Workers1 223,4 thousandUSSR
1985Science Workers≈1 491 thousands.USSR
1995R&D staff1 061 thousandRussian Federation
2000R&D staff≈888 thousands.Russian Federation
2010R&D staff≈737 thousands.Russian Federation
2024R&D staff≈676 thousands.Russian Federation
2024R & D costs0,97% GDPRussian Federation
Latest ReportExpert Opinions of the RAS>80 thousands.for >1 000 organizations

Sources: [S16], [S29], [S31], [S35]. The Soviet and Russian indicators are not completely identical.

Annex 4. Sources

Priority is given to official statistics, primary historical collections and materials of state scientific organizations. The links are checked for the date of preparation.

[S01] First general census of the Russian Empire: the original codex of the Central Committee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs

[S02] Presidential Library: First Census 1897

[S03] Rosstat: historical number and share of urban population in the territory of modern Russia

[S04] Rosstat: census history, literacy and infrastructure

[S05] Bank of Russia: History of the Monetary System and the State Bank

[S06] Bulletin of the Bank of Russia: State Bank balance sheet and gold at 1 January 1914

[S07] MSU: database on Russian industry and USSR

[S08] Isthmath: electricity production USSR, 1913–1950

[S09] National economy USSR: industry, historical series up to 1955 years

[S10] Ministry of Energy of Russia: history of GOELRO plan

[S11] Presidential Library: Creation of KEPS

[S12] RAS: KEPS, Council for the Study of Productive Forces and Established Institutions

[S13] RAS: The Great Patriotic War in the history of FTI

[S14] Rosstat: "Victory figures"

[S15] National economy USSR in 1987: official statistical yearbook

[S16] Isthmat: number of scientists USSR

[S17] Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences: history of creation

[S18] Research Center "Kurchatov Institute": the history of Laboratory No 2

[S19] Roscosmos: the key dates of domestic space exploration

[S20] RAS: 300 years of history, institutional changes of the Academy

[S21] RAS: statute and general provisions; restoration of RAS in 1991

[S22] Federal Law No. 253-FZ of 27.09.2013

[S23] Rosstat: National Accounts and GDP Dynamics

[S24] Rosstat: prices and inflation

[S25] Rosstat: demography

[S26] Rosstat: natural population movement for the year 2024

[S27] Rosstat: historical indicators of poverty

[S28] Rosstat: preliminary poverty assessment for the year 2025

[S29] Rosstat: science, innovation and technology

[S30] Rosstat: a historical series of personnel engaged in research and development

[S31] HSE ISSEZ: Research and Development Costs in 2024

[S32] Ministry of Energy of Russia: results of fuel and energy sector activity for 2025 year

[S33] Bank of Russia: international reserves of the Russian Federation

[S34] Bank of Russia: balance of payments of the Russian Federation

[S35] RAS: report on the activities and scale of scientific expertise

[S36] Russian Railways: the history of the Trans-Siberian Railway

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130Balansy_Rossii_1896-2026_Akademiya_nauk.pptx · webtext

Balances of Russia for 130 years

YEARS

1896–2026

11 EPOH

Russian Empire • USSR • Russian Federation

5 THROUGH BALANCES

The influence of the Academy of Sciences on demographic, resource, energy, industrial and scientific-technological balances

The key question is: how did scientific knowledge become a state capacity?

Prepared for Sokolov Sergey Leonidovich

27 August 2026

For 130 years, the system changed - the task remained

SUMMARY FOR DECISIONS

To reconcile supply, flow, reproduction, and risk in different institutional regimes.

→ 1,061 676 thousand

13,4% → ≈75%

1,94 → 1 705

urban share

billion KW·h

R&D staff

Empire 1897 → Russian Federation 2025; Different boundaries

USSR: 1913 → 1988; Increase approximately ×879

Russian Federation: 1995 → 2024; near −36%

The Academy was most influential where it reduced uncertainty, created scientific schools and was built into the contours of task setting, ordering and implementation.

Crises arose with the simultaneous rupture of money, transport, property and data.

The scale of the industry itself did not guarantee efficiency and reproduction.

The current deficit is people, research personnel, equipment and long technological chains.

Three statistical bands - without false gluing

METHODICS

EMPIRE

USSR

RSFSR / RF

1897 / 1913

1926–1990

1959–2025

Census, State Bank balance sheet, industry estimates

USSR as a whole and individual points of the RSFSR

Censuses, Rosstat, Bank of Russia, R&D

Last implemented points on the cut August 2026: population — 1 January 2025; GDP — 2025; Electricity and R & D — 2024.

Do not connect: USSR 1990 with RF 1990; USSR with R&D staff of the Russian Federation; different age definitions of literacy.

One horizon - 11 different balance mechanisms

MAP EPOH

1896–1913

1914–1921

1922–1928

1929–1940

Imperial Modernization

War and Disintegration

NEP

Industrialization

Money + Railways

Mobilization + gap

Market + GOELRO

Plan + Heavy Industry

1941–1945

1946–1964

1965–1985

1986–1991

Military Balance

Recovery

Mature USSR

Alteration

Maximizing the release

atom + space + Siberia

scale > efficiency

Incentives without prices

1992–1999

2000–2013

2014–2026

Transition shock

Stabilisation

Adaptation

market + demand breakdown

Revenues + reserves

sustainability + personnel shortage

The boundary of the era is set where the way of harmonizing resources has changed: money, property, planning, mobilization or external contour.

1896–1913 | Imperial Modernization

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

Rapid growth of industrial and financial contours in a predominantly rural and illiterate society.

125,64 million

13,4%

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

Maps, classifications, resource intelligence. Radiation Commission — 1910; KEPS - 1915: prototype of a bundle "resource register - examination - state order".

population

urban share

Empire without Finland, 1897

Empire, 1897

21,1%

≈1,94 billion

literacy

kW·h

Monetary and railway modernization did not have time to close the shortage of mass education, energy and management information.

male 29,3%; female 13,1%

Future boundaries USSR, 1913

3,041 billion rub.

≈70,2 thousand km

State Bank balance sheet; gold 1,695 billion rub., 1.01.1914

Railways of the Empire, 1913/14

1914–1921 | War, Revolution and the Breakup of Ties

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

At the same time, the money anchor, transport synchronization, property and statistical controllability broke down.

≈0,5 billion

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

KEPS was looking for strategic raw materials and brought together specialists. The contribution was important, but could not replace the budget, transport, supply and political coordination.

large industry

kW·h

from level 1913 to 1920

rounded score 1920

50,5 → 34 million tons

Grain

income per person

The crisis turned out to be systemic: the fall in output was exacerbated by the gap between money, logistics and institutions.

1913 → 1922; near −33%

from level 1913 to 1919

91,0 million

July 1914

population within the boundaries of modern Russia, estimate 1917

the Golden Exchange

1922–1928 | NEP and Recovery

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

Limited market incentives restored the exchange; energy became the first nationwide balance sheet.

34 → 50 million tons

5,0 billion

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

KEPS and the SOPS that grew out of it linked geology, industrial location, and electrification; new institutions and resource schools emerged.

Grain

kW·h

1922 → 1928; near +47%

USSR, 1928

35,5 mln t

11,6 mln t

coal

Oil

By 1928, physical volumes had returned to roughly pre-war levels, but the balance remained vulnerable to prices and incentives.

USSR, 1928

USSR, 1928

1,75 mln kW

2,56 mln kW

the GOELRO Plan

In fact, new capacities have been introduced.

1929–1940 | Forced industrialization

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

The state directed resources to heavy industry and energy, taking a high social and agricultural price.

5,0 → 48,3

35,5 → 166

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

Expeditions and institutions reduced uncertainty about raw materials, energy, and location. The scientific network became part of the planned outline, but did not define its goals.

billion KW·h

million tons of coal

USSR, 1928 → 1940; ×9,7

USSR, 1928 → 1940; ×4,7

4,3 → 18,3

18% → 33%

million tons of steel

urban share

Over 12 years, energy has increased by almost 10 times, steel - more than 4 times; the defense capability has increased at the cost of agricultural and consumer stresses.

USSR, 1928 → 1940; ×4,3

Territory of Modern Russia, 1926 → 1939

216,7 → 811,7 thousands.

47,5 → 55,6 million tons

University students, 1928 → 1940

Grain: growth noticeably weaker than industry

1941–1945 | Military-mobilization balance

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

The criterion was not efficiency, but maximization of output and preservation of critical functions with the loss of territory, people and capacities.

≈26,6 million

55,6 → 25,4

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

FTI gave a test cycle "task front - laboratory - implementation": demagnetization of ships, radar, ice track. Science retained critical functions, but not the entire issue.

Demographic losses

million tons of grain

USSR, official estimate

the Russian Territory, 1940 → 1945

48,3 → 43,3

18,3 → 12,3

billion KW·h

million tons of steel

Centralized mobilization retained the controllability of critical flows, but the price was expressed primarily in human losses.

USSR, 1940 → 1945

USSR, 1940 → 1945

18 Laboratories

The FTI Commission considered the proposals for the first two months

and more than 300 FTI employees in summer 1941

43,3 → 292

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

1946–1964 | Recovery and technological breakthrough

The reconstruction of the industry coincided with the creation of nuclear, rocket and space and mass educational contours.

19,4 → 147,9

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

Physics, mathematics, chemistry and materials science formed the basis of the atomic and space projects. In 1957 Siberian branch was created - science approached the resource base.

billion KW·h

million tons of oil

USSR, 1945 → 1960

USSR, 1945 → 1960

12,3 → ≈65

million tons of steel

urban share

The recovery has moved into technological expansion; the strongest asset was a combination of science, education, industry research and serial production.

USSR, 1945 → 1960

RSFSR, census 1959

25.12.1946

1957 / 1961

Launch of the first reactor F-1

Gagarin's Satellite / Flight

507 → 1 544

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

1965–1985 | Mature USSR: scale and decreasing efficiency

The material and scientific scale peaked, but returns to capital, resource renewal, and consumer balance deteriorated.

243 → ≈595

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

The fundamental base of defense, space and energy programs was strong. Weaker worked the transition from the result of the institute to mass civil technology.

billion KW·h

million tons of oil

USSR, 1965 → 1985; ×3,0

USSR, 1965 → 1985

664,6 thousands. → ≈1,49 million

7,5% → 3,8%

growth of national income

Science Workers

The economy has accumulated enormous capacity and human capital, but the flow of efficiency has slowed: the scale has not compensated for weak incentives and a long implementation cycle.

average pace: 8- I am → 10- I'm a five-year-old

USSR, 1965 → 1985

45,5 mln t

16% → 54%

grain imports in 1984

Fuel and raw materials in export, 1960 → 1985

1 544 → 1 705

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

1986–1991 | Restructuring and disintegration of a single contour

The attempt to change incentives without a stable architecture of prices, property and inter-republican settlements turned hidden imbalances into open ones.

≈595 → 624

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

The scientific complex remained large, but depended on the federal budget, customers and chains of cooperation. The Academy could diagnose the problem, but not replace the price mechanism and political alignment.

billion KW·h

million tons of oil

USSR, 1985 → 1988; power reserve

USSR, 1985 → 1988

≈1,49 million

≈230 billion rub.

Science Workers

Savings of population

Stocks of productive and scientific capital were large, but monetary, commodity and institutional flows ceased to be consistent.

USSR, 1985; system peak

USSR, nominally to 1990

147,0 million

Population of the RSFSR, census 1989

urban share of the RSFSR, 1989

2 508,8%

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

1992–1999 | Transition shock of the Russian Federation

The market and private property were created simultaneously with the collapse of demand, cooperation, budget and scientific and production ties.

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

The RAS has maintained schools and continuity with a sharp contraction of funding and outflow of personnel. Its contribution is to preserve a critical mass of competencies, not to compensate for macroshock.

inflation

Real GDP

Russia, 1992

Russia, 1991–1998; order of magnitude

116,7 → 47,8

992,6 → 425,9 thousands.

million tons of grain

researchers

Price mechanism and private property emerged faster than long-term capital, trust and the system of scientific order; financial stabilization had a high social price.

RSFSR/RF, 1990 → 1998

Russia, 1990 → 2000

1,061 million

12,5 billion dollars

R&D personnel in the year 1995

international reserves by end 1999

≈6,9% per year

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

2000–2013 | Stabilization and resource and financial strengthening

Export earnings, tax centralization, and capacity utilization quickly restored macro-resilience and social balance.

305 → 523

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

The RAS maintained fundamental schools and expertise, but the link between research and universities, corporations, and private business remained uneven.

GDP growth

million tons of oil

Russia, 1999–2008

Russia, 1999 → 2013

12,5 → ≈510

65,3 → 70,8

billion reserves

OPG years

Revenues and financial reserves increased sharply, while the budget’s dependence on the future price of oil and the reproduction of the research circuit decreased.

End 1999 → End 2013

Russia, 2000 → 2013

29% → 10,8%

≈888 → 727 thousands.

Poverty, 2000 → 2013

R&D staff, 2000 → 2013

2014–2026 | Adaptation and structural turn

NUMBER AGE PASSPORT

The economy remains resilient to external shocks but faces demographic contraction, staffing constraints and the challenge of technological autonomy.

−1,4 / +4,1 / +4,9 / +1,0

0,9% per year

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE

After the reform of 2013, the RAS does not manage most institutions, but strengthens expertise and coordination. The latest report: more than 80 thousand conclusions for more than 1 000 organizations.

Average GDP growth

GDP growth

Russia, 2014–2019

2022 / 2023 / 2024 / 2025

1,222 / 1,819 million

0,97% GDP

Birth / Death

Internal R&D costs

Short-term adaptability is high; long-term risk is concentrated in the reproduction of populations, researchers, equipment, and civilian technology chains.

Russia, 2024

Russia, 2024

146,03 million

675,7 / 699,9 thousand

Population at 1 January 2025

R&D staff: traditional/extended coverage, 2024

Urbanization completed - no reproduction

PASSING BALANCE • POPULATION

67,5 → 146,0 million

population

Retrospective territory of Russia

≈15% → 75,1%

urban share

1897 → 2025; Borders have changed

1,222 < 1,819

Births <

Russia, 2024

Early points are reconstructed within the boundaries of modern Russia; 2021–2025 have a territorial gap relative to 2010.

Energy efficiency has given scale - now accessibility is important

SQUARE BALANCE • ENERGY

USSR: separate comparable series

RSFSR / RF: do not connect with USSR

1913 → 1988: approximately ×879. Modern risk has shifted from an absolute generation deficit to networks, equipment and connection times.

The scientific scale has grown - then the personnel contour has shrunk

SQUARE BALANCE • SCIENCE

USSR: "workers of science", ths.

RF: R&D personnel, ths.

The Soviet and Russian methods are different. In the expanded coverage of 2024 - 699,9 thousand; the intensity of R&D - 0,97% GDP.

The Academy operates through eight channels.

INFLUENCE OF SCIENCE ACADEMY

MEASUREMENT

RESOURCES

ENERGY

DEFENSE

Census • Cards • Standards

Geology • Mineralogy

Physics • Materials • Accommodation

short cycle of implementation

KADRA

TERRITORIES

EXPERTISE

CULTURE

School • Postgraduate

Integrated programs

Programme and outcome evaluation

archives • languages • memory

The correct contribution metric is reducing uncertainty, creating competencies and speeding up the solution of a complex problem, rather than attributing the Academy a share of GDP.

From KEPS to expertise: the mechanism of influence has changed

INSTITUTIONAL MEANS

1915

1943–46

1991

2018

KEPS

Lab. No2

RAS

new model

resource problem

the Nuclear Project

Recovery

coordination + examination

1925

1957

2013

2026

AN USSR

SB AN USSR

253‑FZ

the RAS Report

Union Contour

Science in Siberia

Management reform

>80 Thousands of conclusions

>80 thousands.

23 thousand.

Expert Opinions

Research Topics

Negative evaluations

the Latest Report of the RAS

the Coordination Circuit

the Expert Filtration

Science strengthens the state - but does not replace institutions

Boundaries of influence

ACADEMY MAY

ACADEMY CAN'T

Measure territory and resources

set prices and taxes

Establishing scientific schools

replace customer and serial production

Reducing technological uncertainty

independently agree on a budget

Check programs and results

Closing the Property and Incentive Gap

Reduce the task-solution cycle

Accrue to yourself the entire industry

The best result occurred when the Academy was built into the contour of the problem setting and effect acceptance, while maintaining the autonomy of the method.

Proposal: Academic Register of National Balance Sheets

PROJECT OFFER

RESERVES

Population • capacity • raw materials • health

FLOWS

energy • water • issue • investment

NORMATIVES

Reliability reserves • recovery time

SCENARIA

shocks • lags • sensitivity • cascades

DECISIONS

owner • term • budget • result check

The register does not describe the current system: it is a verifiable monitoring architecture with a passport of the source, version, owner and methodology.

The next step is a measurable pilot, not another report

ROAD CARD 2026–2035

0–90 days

Approve 40–60 key balances and data passports

3–12 months

Launch three pilots: personnel, power grid, food and water

1–3 years

Introduce independent academic verification of programs

3–10 years

Link the registry to the investment cycle and impact assessment

The main lesson of 130 years: science creates the state ability only when knowledge is combined with the order, data, implementation and responsibility for the result.

Sources indicated in the presentation 26
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